2018 elections

[Vrede too]

Tennessee Senate - Blackburn (R) vs. Bredesen (D)

RCP Average: Bredesen +4.5




GOP consultants say Kobach campaign (KS-GOV) has white nationalists on payroll

Kris Kobach experiences the worst thing that can happen to you in politics

... the worst thing that can happen to you is to roll into a town for a scheduled rally, to get to the hall and find …..

…. ABSOLUTELY NOBODY.

Just an acre of empty chairs....

Two persons waited to see Kris Kobach’s campaign rally in Wyandotte County on Thursday afternoon, but then left before it started, saying they had to go to another appointment.



Primary August 7th, 2018.

Shockingly, RCP lists the race as only "Leans GOP", Iowa, too.

Current Governors: 16 Democrats | 33 Republicans | 1 Independent
2018 Governor Races:
20 Democrats (10 Safe or Not Up)
22 Republicans (15 Safe or Not Up)
AK: Independent incumbent running against a Republican
7 Toss Ups

If the Toss Ups break 4-3 for the GOP and assuming the Independent incumbent wins AK, the Dems will have gained 7 governorships.
Even a 7-0 break for the GOP will gain the Dems 4 governorships.
If the Toss Ups break 5-2 for the Dems, they will have gone from nearly a 2:1 minority to a 25-24-1 majority.

[Vrede too]

New polls show Ted Cruz could really lose in 2018
Democrat Beto O’Rourke is closing in on Cruz in Texas — but people still don’t know who he is.

There’s a Beto surge in Texas.

Democrat Rep. Beto O’Rourke is within single digits of beating Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, two recent polls find — a development that has pushed the Cook Political Report to change the state’s partisan rating from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.”

A new poll from Quinnipiac University released Wednesday put O’Rourke just 6 points behind Cruz. Cruz drew the support of 49 percent of registered Texas voters; 43 percent of registered voters backed O’Rourke. The poll, which has a 3.5-point margin of error, shows the Texas Senate race tightening since an earlier poll in May when O’Rourke was 11 points behind Cruz.

Another poll from Texas Lyceum, with a slightly smaller sample size, had Cruz up by just 2 points — a statistical dead heat. Cruz had the support of 36 percent of registered voters, and O’Rourke had the support of 34 percent. The Real Clear Politics polling average has Beto behind by 6.5 points.

Put simply: It’s becoming a very real possibility that Cruz could lose reelection to a Democrat — an upset that would seriously imperil Republicans’ hold on the Senate majority. Texas has not had a Democratic senator in more than 20 years....

[k9nanny]

Stacey Abrams was outvoted in only seven counties out of 159. OK- that's Democrats, but I'm hopeful.

[Vrede too]

There's a special election for a US House seat in Ohio Tuesday. POSPOTUS won the district by 11%, the Repug was already struggling with just a 1% lead, Dolt .45 attacked Ohio's favorite person 4 days ahead of time. Not knowing the early voting numbers, I'll go out on a limb here - I think enough Repugs will be annoyed and stay home that the Dem wins.

Not called yet and no concession, but:

Ohio House 12 Special Election
est. 99% in

Balderson (R) 50.2%, 101,574
O'Connor (D) 49.3%, 99,820

Ouch.

... It feels like close races have always broken against my wishes, but it may just be that relief is less impactful than horror.

Kansas Governor Republican
est. 93% in

Kobach 40.7%, 118,591
Colyer (incumbent) 40.5%, 118,058

Close. Colyer has a stellar private life, but he was also a birfer. Kobach is so notorious that a Dem miiiight do better against him, but it's a long shot either way. Kansas sure has voted for a string of rotten governance.

[Vrede too]

Wow. Look at that:

Kansas Governor Republican
est. 99% in

Kobach 40.6%, 126,257
Colyer (incumbent) 40.5%, 126,066

Are your ears burning, Vox/Bungalow Bill?

[Vrede too]

Ohio House 12 Special Election
est. 99% in

Balderson (R) 50.2%, 101,574
O'Connor (D) 49.3%, 99,820

Ouch.

Still up in the air. I've seen different figures cited but maybe as many as 8500 provisional and absentee ballots still to count.


“It’s clear we have a real and contested race where the margin is far too close for comfort.”
-- Ted Cruz

Cook Political Report: "... Suffice it to say that O’Rourke has made incredible progress in a pretty red state, at least when it comes to running for statewide office. The race moves to Lean Republican. Whether it ever gets to Toss Up remains to be seen.

At worst, the GOP will now have to throw major resources at a race that should have been safe for it.

[Vrede too]

Meet the 14-year-old running for Vermont governor

Primary tomorrow.

16-Year-Old Is Running for Kansas Governor Seat
A Kansas teenager who won't even be old enough to vote is running for governor.

Got 3,874 votes, 3% on August 7, came in 5th out of 5 in the Dem primary.

In the GOP Gov. primary, the KS SoS office is now showing:
Kris Kobach 127,663, 41%
R-Jeff Colyer 127,457, 41%
Precincts Reporting: 3496 of 3539
106 votes, a margin of 0.068%, about 1/147th of a percent, recount certain whenever the results are completed and ceritified.
https://ent.sos.ks.gov/kssos_ent.html#0041

[Vrede too]

Meet the 14-year-old running for Vermont governor

Primary tomorrow.

4th out of 4 in the Dem primary.
https://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/sto ... 980635002/

18,325 Christine Hallquist, Hyde Park
8,412 James Ehlers, Winooksi
8,402 Brenda Siegel, Newfane
3,077 Ethan Sonneborn, Bristol, 8%, better than that 16-Year-Old Kansas poser.

Districts reporting: 204 of 275

Governor: Christine Hallquist becomes first major-party transgender nominee in U.S.

A former utility executive from Vermont has become the first transgender candidate to win a major political party’s nomination for governor.

Christine Hallquist defeated three other Democrats in her victory in Tuesday’s primary.

The former CEO of the Vermont Electric Cooperative says she’s running because she feels she has the best plan to help Vermont residents get higher-paying jobs, provide health care for their families and better educate their children.

The 62-year-old Hallquist is part of a wave of LGBTQ candidates seeking higher office across the U.S....

She'll face incumbent Republican Gov. Phil Scott. RCP says "Likely GOP".

Kris Kobach wins Kansas GOP governor nomination after incumbent Colyer concedes

Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach has narrowly won the Republican nomination for governor, ousting incumbent Gov. Jeff Colyer in the state's primary.

Colyer conceded the race Tuesday night, a week after the election took place and after additional absentee and provisional ballots extended Kobach's razor-thin lead to 345 votes out of more than 313,000 votes cast....

I guess that means no recount. Like I said, Colyer's no peach, so I'm not really disappointed. Ousting an incumbent in a primary generates especially bad intra-party feelings. Good.

Democrats, who nominated state Sen. Laura Kelly for governor, believe Kobach's penchant for controversy gives them an opening in a ruby red state that Trump won by 21 percentage points, but where the party believes local issues have shifted in its favor. Teacher-fueled protests over education funding and two competitive congressional races have made Kansas a battleground in November's midterm elections....

That would be sweet, but I won't bet on it. RCP is calling it a "Toss Up".

[O Really]

Governor: Christine Hallquist becomes first major-party transgender nominee in U.S.

A former utility executive from Vermont has become the first transgender candidate to win a major political party’s nomination for governor.

Christine Hallquist defeated three other Democrats in her victory in Tuesday’s primary.

The former CEO of the Vermont Electric Cooperative says she’s running because she feels she has the best plan to help Vermont residents get higher-paying jobs, provide health care for their families and better educate their children.

The 62-year-old Hallquist is part of a wave of LGBTQ candidates seeking higher office across the U.S....

She'll face incumbent Republican Gov. Phil Scott. RCP says "Likely GOP".

Scott (despite his unfortunate political name) is quite popular across the board - and apparently the only people who don't like him are the relatively few hard-righters. During pre-election, there's been very few TV ads, occasional yard signs, but very low-key interest in the election. But actual turn-out was pretty high for a primary. Ahhhh, the pleasure of being in a non-battleground state.

[Vrede too]

She'll face incumbent Republican Gov. Phil Scott. RCP says "Likely GOP".

Scott (despite his unfortunate political name) is quite popular across the board - and apparently the only people who don't like him are the relatively few hard-righters. During pre-election, there's been very few TV ads, occasional yard signs, but very low-key interest in the election. But actual turn-out was pretty high for a primary. Ahhhh, the pleasure of being in a non-battleground state.

Supposedly the ammosexuals are mad at him, but that didn't have much of an impact. Cool, maybe some other Repugs will grow a spine.

It may be a good thing that he's going to win. Hallquist will be able to represent the Dems and transgenders with principle, integrity, honesty and decency, not the compromise and nastiness of a close contest. Could be a good way for transgenders to start at this level, they can always get down and dirty later on.

Does that sound like sour grapes? I don't think it is, I didn't hope for or expect her to win at any point.

[Vrede too]

He's running against TX Sen. Ted Cruz:



Beto O’Rourke’s Straight Answer to a Tough Question: Kneeling in the NFL

“And this problem – as grave as it is – is not going to fix itself. And they’re frustrated, frankly, with people like me and those in positions of public trust and power, who have been unable to resolve this or bring justice for what has been done and to stop it from continuing to happen in this country.

“And so non-violently, peacefully, while the eyes of this country are watching these games, they take a knee to bring our attention and our focus to this problem to ensure that we fix it.

“That is why they are doing it. And I can think of nothing more American than to peacefully stand up, or take a knee, for your rights, any time, anywhere, in any place."

Wow, I cried a little.

Cruz calls out O'Rourke for supporting NFL players' protests during anthem

No surprise, I was already wondering if the questioner was a plant. It may have backfired. O’Rourke’s answer went viral after Cruz attacked.

RCP Average: Cruz +6.2

[Vrede too]

Duncan D. Hunter

Duncan Duane Hunter ... member of the Republican Party from California ... representing California's 50th congressional district....

Campaign finance investigation

In April 2016, Hunter came under scrutiny from the Federal Elections Commission regarding his use of campaign funds for personal expenses from 2015 to 2016 after Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington filed an ethics complaint....

A federal grand jury of the United States District Court for the Southern District of California indicted Hunter and his wife on 60 counts of wire fraud, falsifying records, campaign finance violations, and conspiracy on August 21, 2018. The San Diego U.S. Attorney's Office accused the couple of conspiring to misuse $250,000 in campaign funds for personal expenses, as well as filing false campaign finance reports....

Hunter has suggested his wife is to blame for any irregularities, saying that she handled all their personal and campaign finances and adding, "I didn't do it. I didn't spend any money illegally."

Really, more than 2 years after the allegations first arose he throws his wife under the bus? I doubt that's a successful legal defense and am sure it won't fly with voters.

In the (June 5) primary Hunter received the most votes at 47.4%, followed by Campa-Najjar (D) at 17.6%

California's 50th congressional district is solid red, but RCP now lists the race as a Toss Up.

Ammar Campa-Najjar

The GOP could lose the seat not just to a Dem, but also to:
Mexican American mother
Middle Eastern immigrant father
Lived in Gaza for four years.
"In 2012, Ammar served as Deputy Regional Field Director for President Obama's reelection campaign"
"Following the election, Ammar secured a White House position in the Executive Office of President Obama."
"He then worked at the United States Hispanic Chamber of Commerce (USHCC) as Communications and Marketing Director, promoting the economic growth of more than 4 million Hispanic-owned small businesses."
"At the U.S. Department of Labor, Ammar led the Office of Public Affairs for the Employment and Training Administration (ETA)."

On paper, the ultimate monster hiding under a Trumpette's bed.


RCP: Battle for the House 2018

Democrats 199
Republicans 193
Toss Ups 43 - 41 are currently GOP, just 2 Dem

Almost all of the polling was done before the Super Tuesday convictions.

[Vrede too]

I see both sides energised.
I don't think the kkk types ever voted before Obama. Reaction to him brought out some of them and trump brought them out in even bigger numbers.
Now they are inspired by trump. They will vote.

Of all the deep south states, Georgia may have the best shot at making right-wing heads explode by electing a black women. A large black population, plus Atlanta with its huge number of non-southern transplants may be enough to counter the rednecks to the north and to the south.

And, as you said, there is Muller. But for his investigation to make a difference trump's followers (birthers, pizzagaters and these Q idiots) will have to believe the results.

How did your picks do?

Florida governor Dem - results

Bernie-backed Andrew Gillum scores surprise victory in Florida Democratic governor's race, CNN projects

Looks like your county went for Gillum.

The RCP Average had Graham +7.2 and Gillum in 4th place! He tallied 24.3% more than they predicted!

I am NOT going to get my hopes up, but it's possible that we'll see the black male governor of FL shake the hand of the black woman governor of GA. We are already making plans to stop the refugees at the GA and SC borders.

Arizona senate GOP - results

Joe Arpaio got beat by 2 women.

[Vrede too]

Florida governor - results

Total GOP votes - 1,618,372
Total Dem votes - 1,509,794

GOP turnout in primaries is usually better.
Closed primary, independents couldn't vote. I think they lean Dem these days, but am not sure.

Will there be Dem or GOP loser bitterness? It sure was close for the Dems.
Will it hurt that Gillum is black?
Will it increase black turnout?
What about the displaced Puerto Ricans? They have to be pissed at the GOP.
Will it hurt that Gillum is backed by Bernie! or will people appreciate a Dem that stands for something?
Will people be more or less disgusted with POSPOTUS and the GOP?
Then, there are all the factors unique to these individuals and to FL.

[billy.pilgrim]

Florida governor - results

Total GOP votes - 1,618,372
Total Dem votes - 1,509,794

GOP turnout in primaries is usually better.
Closed primary, independents couldn't vote. I think they lean Dem these days, but am not sure.

Will there be Dem or GOP loser bitterness? It sure was close for the Dems.
Will it hurt that Gillum is black?
Will it increase black turnout?
What about the displaced Puerto Ricans? They have to be pissed at the GOP.
Will it hurt that Gillum is backed by Bernie! or will people appreciate a Dem that stands for something?
Will people be more or less disgusted with POSPOTUS and the GOP?
Then, there are all the factors unique to these individuals and to FL.

As for getting out the vote, trump's mini-me callings African Americans monkeys this morning may Inspire a few.

[Vrede too]

As for getting out the vote, trump's mini-me callings African Americans monkeys this morning may Inspire a few.

Ron DeSantis uses ‘monkey’ to describe Andrew Gillum's agenda; Democrats brand it racist

Wow, just wow.



Caption: Monkey THIS up, Ron.

[Vrede too]

“It’s clear we have a real and contested race where the margin is far too close for comfort.”
-- Ted Cruz

Cook Political Report: "... Suffice it to say that O’Rourke has made incredible progress in a pretty red state, at least when it comes to running for statewide office. The race moves to Lean Republican. Whether it ever gets to Toss Up remains to be seen.

At worst, the GOP will now have to throw major resources at a race that should have been safe for it.

National GOP group to spend millions for Ted Cruz, showing they're worried about Texas Senate race

Texas GOP tries to shame Beto O'Rourke by reminding everyone he was in a cool band

Did you know Democratic Texas Senate nominee Beto O'Rourke was once in a band? It's true! He doesn't even hide it or anything!

This has got the shuffling corpses in the Texas Republican Party quite put out. Texas Republicans know that the "may once have caused our young folk to dance" charge is, if anything, even worse than the "knows how to ride a skateboard" charge. (Or more accurately: Given O'Rourke's close proximity to universally-hated Republican Ted Cruz in recent state polls, Texas Republicans are beginning to get more and more frantic about losing the seat and are grasping at straws—or, in this case, guitar strings.)

Quickly! To the Twitter-cave!

Texas GOP
‏Verified account @TexasGOP

Maybe Beto can’t debate Ted Cruz because he already had plans...

As you might expect, this attempt to band-shame O'Rourke did not go well.









My favorite:



The next Texas GOP attack on O'Rourke will inform Texans that they once saw O'Rourke playing on your lawn; the one after that will intone solemnly that Beto O'Rourke was seen once down at the pool hall and this is why your town needs to organize a new 76-trombone-strong marching band.

[Leo Lyons]

As for getting out the vote, trump's mini-me callings African Americans monkeys this morning may Inspire a few.

Ron DeSantis uses ‘monkey’ to describe Andrew Gillum's agenda; Democrats brand it racist

Wow, just wow.

A key word here is DEMOCRATS. I watched this video piece several times and I could not glean any racist implication from that statement. Although a poor choice of words, it's clear that he meant 'not to mess up the election', which I took to mean honest, straight-forward, and accurate vote counting, so as not to drag the vote counts on and on, as has been prevalent in past elections.

I suppose now the news story that SurveyMonkey is seeking IPO will have to be flushed because it has racial-bias overtones.
We can no longer publicly say the expression "jew him down", because it's hate speech...
We can can longer "jerry-rig" or "nig*er rig" or "Afro-engineer" something to make it work temporarily...

I could go on, but I'm still concerned that third-world countries need clean water.

[GoCubsGo]

FWIW, 75% chance the House goes Dem.

Forecasting the race for the House

[O Really]

I watched this video piece several times and I could not glean any racist implication from that statement. Although a poor choice of words,...

Given that the guy is a current version Republican Trumper, it's easy to believe the liklihood that he has little regard for non-white people. However, even if you believe that he didn't mean any racial disrespect with his comment, one still has to ask "who says 'monkey up'? That's not as common expression as mess up, screw up, foul up, blow it, fumble, etc. Why would a person as a public figure, knowing he's a target for many, even think that's a reasonable term to use with regard to a black opponent? And if he had intended disrespect, isn't "monkey" a term he might have used?

We can no longer publicly say the expression "jew him down", because it's hate speech...
We can can longer "jerry-rig" or "nig*er rig" or "Afro-engineer" something to make it work temporarily...
No, you can no longer use those terms because they're rude and disrespectful. Do you seriously think they're not?