The Worker Thread

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rstrong
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Re: The Worker Thread

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The ______ industry is dominated by Big _____ interests!

So now we can fill in the blanks for restaurants.

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Re: The Worker Thread

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O Really wrote:
Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:19 am
billy.pilgrim wrote:
Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:10 am

Which leads to the conclusion that responsible employers should pay the servers and wait staff based on abilities - not tittie size.
I'm in favor of employers having to pay their employees, and have never liked the "tip credit" they can get. However, even in non-tipped jobs, employers have long rewarded tittie size, or at least attractiveness. It is written, "it is easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than for a fat chick to get hired as pharmaceutical rep."
Are you suggesting that the me too movement would be well served to to look inward?
Trump: “We had the safest border in the history of our country - or at least recorded history. I guess maybe a thousand years ago it was even better.”

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Re: The Worker Thread

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Always be yourself! Unless you can be a goat, then always be a goat.
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1312. ETTD.

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Re: The Worker Thread

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Workers in AK, AZ, CA, CO, FL, HI, ME, MI, MN, MO, MT, NJ, NY, OH, RI, SD, VT and WA started the year with a minimum wage increase, but it's still not enough. We'll never stop fighting for what we deserve! We demand $15/hour and union rights for everyone. #FightFor15

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Re: The Worker Thread

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Unfulfilled promises
Amazon fulfillment centers do not generate broad-based employment growth


What this report finds: When Amazon opens a new fulfillment center, the host county gains roughly 30 percent more warehousing and storage jobs but no new net jobs overall, as the jobs created in warehousing and storage are likely offset by job losses in other industries.

Why it matters: State and local governments give away millions in tax abatements, credits, exemptions, and infrastructure assistance to lure Amazon warehouses but don’t get a commensurate “return” on that investment.

What we can do about it: Rather than spending public resources on an ineffective strategy to boost local employment (luring Amazon fulfillment centers), state and local governments should invest in public services (particularly in early-childhood education and infrastructure) that are proven to spur long-term economic development.

...

DOL scrubs economic analysis that showed its tip pooling rule would be terrible for workers

Labor Dept. Ditches Data Showing Bosses Could Skim Waiters’ Tips

:roll: :cussing:
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Re: The Worker Thread

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Sorry, but my eyes glazed over before I got to the part where they explained exactly how that happened. I can see how a Wal-Mart opening can take away other retail jobs as smaller retailers go belly-up. But on cursory view, I don't see how an Amazon distribution center would directly affect the warehousing/distribution of other companies/industries not in competition with Amazon. The numbers they found are the numbers they found, but I don't understand it. If you got to that part of the article, pass it along.

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Re: The Worker Thread

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O Really wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:36 am
Sorry, but my eyes glazed over before I got to the part where they explained exactly how that happened. I can see how a Wal-Mart opening can take away other retail jobs as smaller retailers go belly-up. But on cursory view, I don't see how an Amazon distribution center would directly affect the warehousing/distribution of other companies/industries not in competition with Amazon. The numbers they found are the numbers they found, but I don't understand it. If you got to that part of the article, pass it along.
The study seems mostly limited to effect without getting into detailed analysis as to why Amazon fulfillment centers and other publicly subsidized businesses don't really create jobs. That could be the subject of further study. This limitation is legit, all a pol should have to know is whether corporate welfare works or not. That said, one element that's discussed is the lost opportunity to fund the infrastructure and education development that does create jobs.
Conclusion

State and local governments have many tools and strategies to spur economic growth. One tool proven particularly effective by research is public investment that increases the efficiency and attractiveness of local amenities such as transportation and the quality of local education. Public investment opportunities are obviously curtailed if state and local governments willingly forfeit revenue in the name of attracting businesses. Given this sharp trade-off with public goods provision, the benefits of tax incentives should be exceedingly strong to be pursued as good development policy. So far, the best research has not identified such strong benefits....
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Re: The Worker Thread

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You know me - I have a hard time taking conclusions 100% without knowing the "how and why."

So here's a real-life example. Amazon will be opening a center in Orange County, FL.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business ... story.html

Also nearby are large distribution centers for Publix, Wal-Mart, CVS, as well as beer distributors, citrus distrubutors, etc. I don't see the Amazon center taking business away from these. They may take some employees, but Publix, etc. isn't going to go away - they'll just hire other people.

Might it be possible that there is always an ebb and flow of employment within an area and the loss of jobs by some company going out of business (or moving to Mexico) has nothing to do with Amazon, yet the overall employment level balances out? And if that's the case, isn't it still better to try to attract the Amazons to your area?

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Re: The Worker Thread

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O Really wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:21 am
You know me - I have a hard time taking conclusions 100% without knowing the "how and why."

Understandable, but pending that decisions can be made based on the 'what'.

So here's a real-life example. Amazon will be opening a center in Orange County, FL.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business ... story.html

Also nearby are large distribution centers for Publix, Wal-Mart, CVS, as well as beer distributors, citrus distrubutors, etc. I don't see the Amazon center taking business away from these. They may take some employees, but Publix, etc. isn't going to go away - they'll just hire other people.

I don't think that not creating net jobs is the same as "taking business away". The mechanism may be more complex than that. For example, one might look at what communities that don't rely on corporate welfare do, or whether massive development makes communities less attractive for other people and businesses.

There's also a classical con argument: government should do what it's best at - education, safety, health, infrastructure, etc. - and let the market decide what business is the best fit where. This suggests that government isn't good at picking winners and losers and that there's no gain when it tries.


Might it be possible that there is always an ebb and flow of employment within an area and the loss of jobs by some company going out of business (or moving to Mexico) has nothing to do with Amazon, yet the overall employment level balances out?

Things like that might explain a handful of locales, but nearly 100 Amazon fulfillment centers across the country is a pretty significant sample size.

And if that's the case, isn't it still better to try to attract the Amazons to your area?

Without actual evidence that they make things better, no. You can't just assume that corporate welfare meets your "how and why" test without hard data backing it up.
Always be yourself! Unless you can be a goat, then always be a goat.
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Re: The Worker Thread

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Always be yourself! Unless you can be a goat, then always be a goat.
-- the interweb, paraphrased
1312. ETTD.

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Re: The Worker Thread

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Well, statistics don't lie, although statisticians have been known to. Before I totally bought into the "Amazon doesn't increase employment" conclusion, I'd want to see if the numbers apply only to Amazon centers or if the same principle would apply to any industry coming into town. Going back to the Wal-Mart comparison, one can see how a new Wal-Mart in a smallish town affects employment: it hires people, possibly at a lower than average rate, but causes other retail businesses to close. Would EPI argue that BMW and Michelin had no positive employment effect on Greenville? The argument has to be either: (1) no new company coming into an area has a long-term positive effect on the county's employment or (2) Amazon is doing something in particular that negatively affects employment overall. If it's (2), I'd be interested in what they're doing.

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Re: The Worker Thread

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Good questions.

Or, more broadly, does such corporate welfare work relative to alternative strategies and, if so, under what conditions? I'll bet that most pols have no clue. Rather, they think it will work and they get pressure/props/bribes/whatever from narrow interests that will benefit.
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Re: The Worker Thread

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Maybe EPI could study whether Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill and the state of NC got its money's worth out of Research Triangle Park.

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Re: The Worker Thread

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O Really wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:50 pm
Maybe EPI could study whether Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill and the state of NC got its money's worth out of Research Triangle Park.
That was more about creating the infrastructure for success that I described above - schools, transportation, land, telecom, public services, etc. - than it was about subsidizing particular businesses. We are discussing picking winners with direct corporate welfare, NOT whether development in general creates jobs.
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Re: The Worker Thread

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The creation of RTP was intended for overall development, sure, but even though they built it, no one came - until some substantial recruitment efforts.

But here's where I see the continuing flaw in EPI's analysis - or maybe just their article: if Amazon (or anybody, really) moves into an area and gives 1,000 people jobs, then clearly during that month the county has more jobs than they did last month. So if some time in the future, you count people employed and find the same number as you had before Amazon moved in, then something obviously had to happen from the time Amazon opened and now. As to whatever happened, either Amazon caused it or they didn't. If Amazon caused the reduction in employment overall, then yes, it probably wasn't worth the effort and money to recruit them if the primary goal was to increase total employment. But if Amazon didn't cause the drop in employment elsewhere, then you still don't know if the effort and cost to recruit them was worth it even if the only goal was increased employment. And for most cities courting an Amazon, they probably have much wider goals than just increased total employment,

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Re: The Worker Thread

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Vrede too wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:11 pm
Or, more broadly, does such corporate welfare work relative to alternative strategies and, if so, under what conditions? I'll bet that most pols have no clue. Rather, they think it will work and they get pressure/props/bribes/whatever from narrow interests that will benefit.
That's how it works for arenas and stadiums in Canada and the US.

"Give us corporate welfare for a new arena, and you'll get it back twice over collecting taxes from that arena! Also, we want a decades-long tax holiday for the arena." The taxpayers pay the welfare - without seeing it - and the politicians take credit for attracting the team and arena.

Amazon and other corporations are learning to play the same game.

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Re: The Worker Thread

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EPI discusses adjusting for factors not related to Amazon. It would take a better economist than me to say they didn't do so adequately, but until that happens I'm inclined to accept that they know what they're talking about
O Really wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:29 pm
The creation of RTP was intended for overall development, sure, but even though they built it, no one came - until some substantial recruitment efforts....
Saw that in Wiki, but it doesn't mention direct subsidies to favored businesses. Maybe that happened some, but it's mostly a more recent phenomena. Even so, far, far more money went into NC State University and your University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and I would argue that it is more responsible for the eventual success of Research Triangle Park.
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Re: The Worker Thread

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Vrede too wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:55 pm
EPI discusses adjusting for factors not related to Amazon. It would take a better economist than me to say they didn't do so adequately, but until that happens I'm inclined to accept that they know what they're talking about
An engineer, an architect, and an economist were stranded on a desert island, with nothing to eat but a case of canned beans. They discussed how they were going to get the beans opened. The engineer suggested they could build a fire, put the cans on it and the heat build-up would pop the cans open. The architect agree, but said if they didn't build a structure around the cans to contain it, the beans would just blow out across the beach. They turned to the economist and asked, "what do you think?" The economist replied, "well, I'd assume a can opener." badaboom.

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Re: The Worker Thread

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O Really wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:19 pm
An engineer, an architect, and an economist were stranded on a desert island, with nothing to eat but a case of canned beans. They discussed how they were going to get the beans opened. The engineer suggested they could build a fire, put the cans on it and the heat build-up would pop the cans open. The architect agree, but said if they didn't build a structure around the cans to contain it, the beans would just blow out across the beach. They turned to the economist and asked, "what do you think?" The economist replied, "well, I'd assume a can opener." badaboom.
Keep in mind that they are economists and direct beneficiaries that are saying that subsidies for Amazon are a good thing. badaboom.
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Re: The Worker Thread

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Nevermind, I found the answer in the article.
" It is possible... that the employment growth generated by Amazon is too small to meaningfully detect in the data."

Looking at the list of Amazon warehouse locations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Amazon_locations
I'd say that the article's second possibility is a distinct possibility. If you look at the percentage of Amazon employment to the total employment in the counties where these centers are found, it's hard to see that over a two-year period other forces wouldn't matter more than Amazon. Take Davenport, FL, for example, in Polk County. Amazon arrived in 2013. From 2014-205 total employment rose 2.4% to about 650,000. Amazon's center with it's (maybe) 1,000 employees would represent .0015% of the workforce. Likewise Hillsborough County has almost a million people employed. How many Amazon centers would it take to make a blip? Duval County has 434,000, but three Amazon centers. So those three (at the guesstimate 1,000 each, doubtful) would constitute .0069% of the workforce.

So sure, adding 1-3,000 jobs to a county employing a half-million plus isn't going to be noticeable on the total employment number in two years. Hell, it's not noticeable on the total employment number on day one. But the people working in those centers still have jobs. And two of my clients who do road/parking construction and warehouse construction got projects, along with all the electrical, roofing, and plumbing subs.

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