billy.pilgrim wrote: ↑Thu Mar 08, 2018 4:10 pm
Am I remembering correctly that about a week ago the aluminum and steel tariffs were about pressure on Mexico and Canada to renegotiate nafta?
Yup.
- Trump officials insisted that Canada and Mexico wouldn't be exempted.
- THEN they said that Mexico and Canada would be exempted if they caved in on NAFTA.
- TODAY they're saying that Mexico and Canada might be exempted... temporarily. They'll always have the threat of the tariffs being applied to them at any moment.
This has three effects:
- It supports Abu Ghraib torturer Rick Saccone in the March 13 special House election in western Pennsylvania, in the steel belt.
- The uncertainty has ALREADY driven up US steel prices by over 10%
- The uncertainty harms companies and countries that export steel to the US.
This is why Canada doesn't seem to too concerned about renegotiating NAFTA. The US has already declared that it'll override its NAFTA 2.0 obligations on steel, lumber and whatnot any time it wants, just like it did with various sectors under NAFTA 1.0. A treaty with the US isn't worth the paper it's written on.
If Trump does go with a "tariff but temporary exemption" - anything that creates uncertainty - I hope that Canada does the same with manufactured goods and coal. Announce something that kicks in automatically and immediately if the steel and aluminum tariffs kick in. Make the uncertainty go both ways.