2020 Elections

[Whack9]

It would be funny if the stock market surges if/when Biden wins, since Trump always talks about how he's good for the stock market.

Or if it crashes with a PINO win.

Headline translation: Trump says he's going to lose

Tomorrow's gonna be a crazy day...

[neoplacebo]

It would be funny if the stock market surges if/when Biden wins, since Trump always talks about how he's good for the stock market.

Or if it crashes with a PINO win.

Headline translation: Trump says he's going to lose

Tomorrow's gonna be a crazy day...

Yeah, I expect it. I've got plenty of medicine but may have to get some more beer. Also have couch cushions I can gnaw on if things get heavy.

[Vrede too]

Final polls and predictions. I'm not sure how long they'll stay up once actual results start coming in.

POTUS

Cook Political Report Electoral College
290 Biden/Harris
125 Trump/Pence
123 Toss Ups
NC Toss Up

Election Projection
2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Biden +2.6%
308 Biden/Harris
230 Trump/Pence
NC Trump +1.8

electoral-vote.com
Electoral College
368 Biden/Harris
170 Trump/Pence
NC Biden +2%
Excluding States Where the Candidates are Statistically Tied
270 Biden/Harris
125 Trump/Pence

FiveThirtyEight
national polls average Biden +8.3
Biden is favored to win the election
Biden win 89 in 100
Trump win 10 in 100
No Electoral College majority, House decides election 1 in 100
NC Biden +1.9%

Weird and not-so-weird possibilities

The chances that these situations will crop up

Trump wins the popular vote
Regardless of whether he wins the Electoral College 3 in 100
Biden wins the popular vote
Regardless of whether he wins the Electoral College 97 in 100

Trump wins more than 50% of the popular vote
Regardless of whether he wins the Electoral College 1 in 100
Biden wins more than 50% of the popular vote
Regardless of whether he wins the Electoral College 95 in 100

Trump wins in a landslide
Defined as winning the popular vote by a double-digit margin <1 in 100
Biden wins in a landslide
Defined as winning the popular vote by a double-digit margin 29 in 100

Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College <1 in 100
Biden wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College 8 in 100

No one wins the Electoral College
No candidate gets 270 electoral votes and Congress decides the election <1 in 100

Trump wins at least one state that Clinton won in 2016 25 in 100
Biden wins at least one state that Trump won in 2016 98 in 100

The map stays exactly the same as it was in 2016
Each candidate wins exactly the same states that his party won in 2016 <1 in 100

The election hinges on a recount
Candidates are within half a percentage point in one or more decisive states 4 in 100

Rasmussen Reports: Biden 48%, Trump 47%

RCP
Biden +7.2
Electoral College
216 Biden/Harris
125 Trump/Pence
197 Toss Ups
NC Trump +0.5
No Toss Ups
319 Biden/Harris
219 Trump/Pence

270toWin
Biden +6.5%
NC Biden +1%
electoral vote counter
290 Biden/Harris
163 Trump/Pence
85 Toss Ups

2008 comparison, actual
Obama +7.2%
365 Obama
173 McCain

Senate

Cook Political Report
Democrats | 12 Held Seats - lose 1 (AL), No TOSS UP
Republicans | 23 Held Seats - lose 2 (AZ, CO), TOSS UP 7 (GA, GA, Iowa, ME, MT, NC, SC)

Election Projection
Projections
Republicans 49
Democrats 49
Independents 2 (caucus with Dems)
NC Cunningham (D) +3.4

electoral-vote.com
Dem 53
GOP 46
Ties 1 (Iowa)
NC Cunningham (D) +4

FiveThirtyEight
Dem 52
GOP 48
Chances of controlling the Senate
Dem 75 in 100
GOP 25 in 100
NC Cunningham (D) +4
Cunningham wins 64 in 100
Tillis (R) wins 36 in 100

Rasmussen Reports
NC Cunningham (D) +3
No full Senate data that I can find.

RCP
Senate Map
45 Democrats
46 Republicans
9 Toss Ups
Senate No Toss Ups
50 Democrats
50 Republicans
NC Cunningham (D) +2.2

270toWin
49 Democrats
46 Republicans
5 Toss Ups
NC leans Cunningham (D)

House

Cook Political Report
229 Democrats
179 Republicans
26 Toss Ups
NC-11 Lean Republican

Election Projection
2020 HOUSE ELECTIONS
242 Democrats
193 Republicans
NC Dem Gain +2, only topped by TX Dem Gain +3
NC-11 Cawthorn (R) +3.3

electoral-vote.com: No House page

FiveThirtyEight
230 Democrats
190 Republicans
15 Toss ups
NC-11
Davis (D) wins 25 in 100
Cawthorn (R) wins 75 in 100

Rasmussen Reports: No House data that I can find.

RCP
209 Democrats
182 Republicans
44 Toss Ups
NC-11 Likely GOP

270toWin
224 Democrats
188 Republicans
23 Toss Ups
NC-11 Leans GOP

All fairly positive, though it's depressing that so much is even close.

[Vrede too]

Tomorrow's gonna be a crazy day...

Compared to the next day, week and months?

Yeah, I expect it. I've got plenty of medicine but may have to get some more beer.

Shop early, many others may feel the same way.

Also have couch cushions I can gnaw on if things get heavy.

My Pillow is good for that.

[Vrede too]

... Headline translation: Trump says he's going to lose

Tomorrow's gonna be a crazy day...

Same topic, headline courtesy of HuffPost:

Trump’s Closing Message: I Will Cheat

Trump's campaign team doesn't see a path to victory without North Carolina, and they're not entirely wrong

... In DDHQ simulations, only 17% of instances where Trump wins a second term in office are accompanied by a loss in North Carolina. Biden is much less reliant upon the state: Simulations show he wins the presidency 32% of the time even without the state's 15 electoral votes.

North Carolina voted for a Republican candidate in 10 of the last 12 presidential elections. The most recent time the state voted for a Democratic presidential candidate was in 2008 for President Barack Obama. In 2016, it was close, with Trump edging out Hillary Clinton by 3.7 percentage points, according to Ballotpedia....

"If Biden is winning in an environment like North Carolina, he is likely winning on terrain like Pennsylvania as well," Williams added.

Forecasting from DDHQ projects Biden has a 56.5% chance of winning North Carolina. Recent polling from October 29 to October 31 by Emerson College shows Biden and Trump in a dead heat among likely voters in the state.

I will take the blame or credit.

[GoCubsGo]

I'd take that.

[Vrede too]

I'd take that.

"ticket-spitting"?

RCP

Montana Senate - Daines (R) vs. Bullock (D)

Montana At-Large (House) District - Rosendale (R) vs. Williams (D)

Tight.

Montana Governor - Gianforte (R) vs. Cooney(D)
Advantage to Gianforte, probably.

It's a contrarian state.

[GoCubsGo]

Someone sounds tired of all the winning.

[GoCubsGo]

Maybe this will stop me from day drinking.

[Vrede too]

Maybe this will stop me from day drinking.

If true - I hope - it still means that Biden is POTUS . Cheers.

[billy.pilgrim]

Why isn't Biden talking about trump's demand to stop counting today in the context of how it would cancel the deployed military vote which gets an extra 10 days?

He could have beat trump up with this.

[neoplacebo]

Why isn't Biden talking about trump's demand to stop counting today in the context of how it would cancel the deployed military vote which gets an extra 10 days?

He could have beat trump up with this.

I sort of think that when trump didn't even criticize Putin for allegedly putting Taliban bounties on US soldiers, he's not going to catch very much flak for suggesting not counting some votes. Besides, GOP strategy for decades has been voter suppression. And most everybody knows it.

[Vrede too]

Why isn't Biden talking about trump's demand to stop counting today in the context of how it would cancel the deployed military vote which gets an extra 10 days?

He could have beat trump up with this.

I sort of think that when trump didn't even criticize Putin for allegedly putting Taliban bounties on US soldiers, he's not going to catch very much flak for suggesting not counting some votes. Besides, GOP strategy for decades has been voter suppression. And most everybody knows it.

Donald Trump's latest tweets!

Where are the missing military ballots in Georgia? What happened to them?

With the attack by the Radical Left Dems on the Republican Senate, the Presidency becomes even more important!

....hopefully this will be corrected at the Supreme Court of the United States. Also, these late ballots past Election Day are illegal, exactly what the President has been saying. The Supreme Court, in extraordinary circumstances,...

....has been able to render decisions in a matter of days.” Ken Starr, former Independent Counsel @Varneyco

Irony.

Georgia secretary of state: There will be a recount

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger announced that with the expectation that the final margin will be within a few thousand votes, the state will hold a recount. Biden took a slim lead early Friday morning for the state's 16 electoral votes.

"As we are closing in on a final count we can begin to look at our next steps," Raffensperger, a Republican, said Friday morning. "With a margin that small, there will be a recount in Georgia."

As of 10:00 a.m., Raffensperger said there were 5,500 votes still to be counted in four counties and nearly 9,000 military ballots outstanding that will be accepted and counted if they arrive by close of business on Friday.

[neoplacebo]

It really is quite surprising that there's such an apparent support for fascism in this country. But I suppose it's a logical progression......go crazy hate because of a black president....go crazy hate to the second power when the black president is re elected, decide that a fascist buffoon is the best counter to it, suffer four years of a fascist buffoon during which time more than a few GOP "leaders' become accomplice to fascist buffoonery and a lot of others exhibit implicit support for fascist buffoonery, and here we are.

[O Really]

I also find it distressing that half the voting population would vote for Trump after seeing him ummmm "work" for over three years. I've generally thought that while voting for a pervert doesn't make you a pervert necessarily, but it enables the pervert to keep perverting. And that's certainly true of President* Pervert, but I've also grown to realize that not all who voted for Trump actually see his acts of perversion as such. We all know (as Trump has proudly proclaimed) that his base voters are among the "poorly educated." And past that, he has a lot of single-issue voters who don't care about the perversion as long as they get their guns, keep others from abortions, and get their taxes cut. And you get a lot of self-styled "patriots" that just want to yell "USA USA" at the world and don't bother to notice how much their life is actually affected by international relations and have no idea how much they're paying for those "stick it to 'em" tariffs or for corporate welfare. So if you take the poorly educated and the unsophisticated (of whom we've got way more than we should), and you add in the various special issue people, and then add in the ones who really are moon-howling drooling bat-shit crazy, you've got a pretty big electorate. What's interesting too, though, is that in most place outside the "battleground" where Biden won, he won big and where Trump won, he won big. Makes it easier to see where in the country you might prefer to live, visit, spend your money. Because you may not know all the reasons a state or area went big for Trump - could be a wide variety - but you do know that likely you're not going to have much in common with a large number of them. But there were trumper-type people before there was Trump - they just weren't so emboldened to come out from under their rocks. At least they're not in charge anymore and won't be publicly encouraged to "stand by."

[Vrede too]

It would be funny if the stock market surges if/when Biden wins, since Trump always talks about how he's good for the stock market.

Stock market news live updates: Markets soar to record highs after upbeat vaccine data, Biden victory

[Whack9]

It would be funny if the stock market surges if/when Biden wins, since Trump always talks about how he's good for the stock market.

Stock market news live updates: Markets soar to record highs after upbeat vaccine data, Biden victory

No, the real reason the stock market is doing well is because Trump is fighting election fraud and the market knows this and knows he's going to prevail.

/S

[Vrede too]

No, the real reason the stock market is doing well is because Trump is fighting election fraud and the market knows this and knows he's going to prevail.

/S

It's already anticipating 2024 when we will Make America Great Again, Again.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=4271

[Vrede too]

California Senate Sweepstakes: Who Gets Kamala Harris' Job?
Sen. Kamala Harris' ascendancy to the vice presidency next year has left California with a tantalizing question: Who will replace her in the Senate.

... In this race, only one vote matters, because there is only one vote. The selection falls to Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is being pressured by rival interest groups, fellow Democrats and even friends intent on swaying his decision....

I agree that the new Sen should be non-White, though not necessarily Black.

I don't recognize all of the names, but Rep Barbara Lee would be excellent. She was my Rep for awhile, preceded by the amazing Rep Ron Dellums, who was also my Rep the first time I lived in the East Bay.

[O Really]

I'd suggest picking somebody with statewide positive recognition, who would be a popular candidate to run for and likely win an election on their own. Don't pick somebody like the repugs have done a couple of times and give the job to somebody to make all the check blocks who can't hold it.