A Florida Man...

[Vrede too]

I'm not familiar with the one drop bs here. I am familiar with "any" being a qualifer.
To whichever or whatever I say, So what? People are people.

The one-drop rule was a legal principle of racial classification that was prominent in the 20th-century United States. It asserted that any person with even one ancestor of black ancestry ("one drop" of "black blood") is considered black (Negro or colored in historical terms)....

My point in response to O Really is that Amerikkka historically and legally considered any known degree of Black to be wholly Black. Hence, the descendants of White slave owner/rapists are Black.

So, for the purposes of public perception, especially the perception of Black women and their allies, if Black/Asian/Irish Kamala from Oakland is forced out near the convention or afterwards it will be seen as a betrayal by the Dems and many will just stay home or vote 3rd parties on election day.

[O Really]

So you're saying Kamala would have a good chance of winning?

If she doesn't, it would be incredibly dumb to run her anyway just to avoid offending some people who can't read polls.

[Vrede too]

So you're saying Kamala would have a good chance of winning?

If she doesn't, it would be incredibly dumb to run her anyway just to avoid offending some people who can't read polls.

Idk that Joltin' Joe has "a good chance of winning", if the tossup polls can be believed:
RCP Average 8/10 - 8/30
Biden (D)* 44.7
Trump (R) 44.0
Spread Biden +0.7

Of course they can "read polls." However, polls aren't necessarily sufficient in the face of a huge FU to Black women. How much Dem betrayal is too much?

Idk if Kamala can be crafted into a winner, though smart people would certainly try. Plus, there would be some sympathy for Joe's precipitous exit. It's just my opinion that dumping her after her nomination was a fact or was assured would be a scandal and a certain loser.

[O Really]

Don't get me wrong - I like Kamala. I think she was a reasonable choice for VP and I'd vote for her if she were running in the general. And she might do a good job. But she really hasn't made much impact with the public, whether her fault or just the fate of VPs I don't know, but she hasn't. This isn't some garden variety election where Dems can lose and say "we'll gettum next time." This one is for all the marbles for decades and maybe forever. Dems have got to put up their most likely winner and hope that those who are inevitably offended (by whatever) will hold their nose and vote against Trump (or whoever)
Now is not the time to pander.

[billy.pilgrim]

I wonder if any of her lack of visibility with the public comes from the done deal that the plan all along has been for Biden to run. Otherwise, 1) wouldn't these great political crafters of power have been working with her image, 2) Joe's paranoid.

[O Really]

I wonder if any of her lack of visibility with the public comes from the done deal that the plan all along has been for Biden to run. Otherwise, 1) wouldn't these great political crafters of power have been working with her image, 2) Joe's paranoid.

Hard to say. Biden is a career highly ambitious politician who has wanted to be President since at least 1988. So it's likely he'd want two terms once he finally made it. On the other hand, he probably didn't think he'd be quite this old when he became President, so he could also consider that he achieved his ambition and now he can pass the torch.

I think it would have been a good strategy to have built a strong capable Kamala, give her popular projects, keep her out of RW trashing as much as possible. Then, if in '24 Biden runs again, it's good. If he doesn't/can't there's a good and more electable backup. Absent the paranoia, there's no real value in keeping her down.

[Vrede too]

POTUSes are usually protective of their agendas and image.
VP Q-tip was invisible until J6.
Pre-Joltin' Joe was invisible. He's most remembered for opposing the ObL raid.
Cheney was generous, Shrub was not so invisible.
Gore had a bit of notoriety, but I can't recall for what.
I had trouble remembering Dan Quayle's name , but I instantly remembered that he was known as a punchline, not for any productivity.
Aside: one year my Halloween costume was plaid, an orange vest, a big button that read Hunters for Quayle, and his pic in crosshairs . A few people downtown were not amused.
Daddy Shrub was out there, but he was immensely qualified and the boss had Alzheimer's.

I can't imagine taking the job. They've all been ego-driven leaders and it's not historically been a good route to POTUS. Daddy Shrub was an exception. Their bargain is to be agreeable and forgotten for 8 years before resuming or moving on with their lives. Maybe Kamala wagered on an early death or illness for ancient Joe.

I did not like Kamala in 2020 - too con, too harsh as a prosecutor. I would be unlikely to vote for her in primaries if Joe exited early. However, she's been a good trooper and has not been an embarrassment. Then, Amerikkka is due for a woman and an Asian. That all counts for something and I would vote for her in a general unless she pisses me off during the campaign.

[O Really]

I can't imagine taking the job. They've all been ego-driven leaders and it's not historically been a good route to POTUS. Daddy Shrub was an exception. Their bargain is to be agreeable and forgotten for 8 years before resuming or moving on with their lives. Maybe Kamala wagered on an early death or illness for ancient Joe.

Yeah, that's my point. VP isn't usually a good way to President, and most VP's are picked for their ability to to be second fiddle and go to funerals.
But this time was different because of Joe's age. Even if he was in good health to start with, the pressures of the Presidency wreaks havoc on even the healthiest. Would have been a good time to make a new strategy.

[Vrede too]

The Constitution says, "when elected, be an Inhabitant of that State for which he shall be chosen"

So, all good to move to DC or Santa Rosa Beach (which is populated mostly by Alabama and Georgia country club people like him).

The article's author agrees with you.

Fine, Mr Tuberhead is a "legal", country club, carpetbagging, Santa Rosa Beach, misogynist scumbag, fucking united states Senator oh my !!!

Fixed it for you again

Sen. Tommy Tuberville Says He's Worried About Sailors Reciting Poetry On Ships
The Alabama senator tried to defend his widely criticized blocking of military promotions with anti-"woke" blather.

Warriors and poetry? Horrors. What do you bet that Mr Tuberhead has never read the Iliad and the Odyssey ? Funny that Homer was too "woke" 2800 years ago.

[O Really]

If a satire article included him, it wouldn't be believable.
Senator Foghorn Leghorn

[billy.pilgrim]

The Constitution says, "when elected, be an Inhabitant of that State for which he shall be chosen"

So, all good to move to DC or Santa Rosa Beach (which is populated mostly by Alabama and Georgia country club people like him).

The article's author agrees with you.

Fine, Mr Tuberhead is a "legal", country club, carpetbagging, Santa Rosa Beach, misogynist scumbag, fucking united states Senator oh my !!!

Fixed it for you again

Sen. Tommy Tuberville Says He's Worried About Sailors Reciting Poetry On Ships
The Alabama senator tried to defend his widely criticized blocking of military promotions with anti-"woke" blather.

Warriors and poetry? Horrors. What do you bet that Mr Tuberhead has never read the Iliad and the Odyssey ? Funny that Homer was too "woke" 2800 years ago.

"Del Toro this week accused the Alabama senator of “aiding and abetting communists” with his promotions blockade in an interview. Del Toro also wrote in a Washington Post opinion piece along with the secretaries of the Army and Air Force that Tuberville’s holdup is putting the nation’s security at risk and placing military families in limbo"

You go Tubs. Fer one, what kinder name is Del Toro? It sounds more like some Mexican or maybe a cow.
Fer too, it could be communist, or even a communist cow.

Tubs is a special guy.

[O Really]

You go Tubs. Fer one, what kinder name is Del Toro? It sounds more like some Mexican or maybe a cow.
Fer too, it could be communist, or even a communist cow.

Tubs is a special guy.

Funny. If it were "El Toro" it would be "the bull" but "Del Toro" would be "of the bull" or "the bull's"
Appropriate, I guess, for a military politician.

[billy.pilgrim]

You go Tubs. Fer one, what kinder name is Del Toro? It sounds more like some Mexican or maybe a cow.
Fer too, it could be communist, or even a communist cow.

Tubs is a special guy.

Funny. If it were "El Toro" it would be "the bull" but "Del Toro" would be "of the bull" or "the bull's"
Appropriate, I guess, for a military politician who is nuts.

Fixed it for you

[Vrede too]

Sen. Tommy Tuberville Says He's Worried About Sailors Reciting Poetry On Ships
The Alabama senator tried to defend his widely criticized blocking of military promotions with anti-"woke" blather.

"Del Toro this week accused the Alabama senator of “aiding and abetting communists” with his promotions blockade in an interview. Del Toro also wrote in a Washington Post opinion piece along with the secretaries of the Army and Air Force that Tuberville’s holdup is putting the nation’s security at risk and placing military families in limbo"

You go Tubs. Fer one, what kinder name is Del Toro? It sounds more like some Mexican or maybe a cow.
Fer too, it could be communist, or even a communist cow.

Tubs is a special guy.

I ignored that dumb whine from the son of a Cuban cow Secretary of the Navy. I've never heard communists opine on military promotions. Maybe I need to reread Das Kapital. Moo.

[billy.pilgrim]

Would you?

https://youtu.be/FR6QFmKCzi4?si=Ymer_UqIVItgReWR

[Vrede too]

Would you?

https://youtu.be/FR6QFmKCzi4?si=Ymer_UqIVItgReWR

I would like to think so, though I might now leave it to the younger folks if there are enough of them there and willing.

[Vrede too]

Here's some scenarios -
If Joe should become totally incapacitated, then Kamala would be Pres and ostensibly be running as the incumbent, subject to primary challenge.

Agreed.

If Joe could continue as Pres, but decide not to run any longer, Kamala would have no automatic route to the nomination. Gavin could step up and say, "I'll do it."

Agreed, if it's early enough.

If Joe got the nomination, and then crashed out, Kamala would be Pres, but would still not automatically inherit the nomination for 2024.

Disagree. For the DNC to hand it someone else would be a huge slap in the face to Black women and their allies. If enough of them stay home the Dems lose. I think this is also true if something happens to Joe late in the primary season. It would be very offensive for a brokered convention to broker out a Black woman, even if Kamala is no Michelle . . . Saaay, Michelle might be the one person that could get away with replacing Kamala.

If they suspect that for whatever reason, Joe isn't going to make it to the 2024 election, they could decide to challenge in primaries which might work or might be a big backfire

Agreed, that would be the time and method.

I hope the people directly involved in all of this know what they're doing and giving it a lot of thought. But they're Dems, so I'm not feeling real confident about that.

To be fair, just discussing the options will piss off one group or another, maybe all groups. I agree that there should be preparation, but the Dems doing so will have to tread carefully.

Nah, here's the real plan.

Great minds.

One or both of us are broken clocks.

Teddy, too:

Ted Cruz Claims This Is Who He Thinks Is the ‘Most Likely & Most Dangerous’ Candidate to Replace Joe Biden

[GoCubsGo]

Where do they come up with this shit?

[Vrede too]

Where do they come up with this shit?

Partially from our team:

Desperate Democrats 'Begging Michelle to Run in 2024': Party Insiders 'Secretly Testing Support' for Former First Lady

The best conspiracy theories have an element of truth.

Truths:
Joe is vulnerable;
Joe is ancient;
Michelle would be a strong candidate;
Many Dems and others would like her to run.

Fakes:
She has reversed her avowed refusal to run;
Her nomination is already a fait accompli.

[GoCubsGo]

She has reversed her avowed refusal to run;
Her nomination is already a fait accompli.

It's weird.
She has shown zero interest, as a matter of fact after her eight years she's shown some disdain.