History has been made as ballistic missiles finally used against warships for real
Two days ago the head of the US Navy, Admiral Lisa Franchetti, publicly praised the performance of her people in the Red Sea for shooting down more than 70 drones, seven cruise missiles, and “for the first time in history, 14 anti-ship ballistic missiles” (ASBMs).
She also conceded that a few weapons had made it through the screen and hit commercial shipping causing damage and fires but thankfully, no fatalities.
Admiral Franchettti also mentioned that a US Marine pilot flying a Harrier jump jet from the USS Bataan – the USMC, unlike Britain, still has Harriers – has shot down seven drones, which makes him the first American fighter ace since the Vietnam War. Or at least it would if they had been crewed. Denied by a technicality, but impressive nonetheless.
A few hours after Admiral Franchetti’s speech, footage started to emerge of yet another Russian Black Sea Fleet ship being hit and sunk by surface drones. This time it was the landing ship Caesar Kunikov, the fourth of its type to have been destroyed since the start of the full-on war in Ukraine.
So, on the one hand, we have the US Navy providing a master class in carrier and escort-based air defence, with the air wings of carrier USS Eisenhower – Ike – and big-deck amphibious ship USS Bataan providing the fighters, and Aegis combat system warships armed with Standard Missiles proving their worth again and again against the weapons the jets didn’t stop.
And on the other, we have the Russian navy, seemingly unable to defend itself from a fairly unsophisticated surface threat and as the war grinds on, not getting any better either.
... If the basics of layered defence are in place, a properly organised group of warships can provide an enormous level of protection to the point where getting to the high-value units (normally including the carrier itself) is nearly impossible. However, if key things are not in place, or you’re not paying attention or you can’t shoot straight, then the defences can fail....
In the case of the surface drone threat proving so effective far away in the Black Sea, this really isn’t new. In fact nothing in the Black Sea is revolutionising naval warfare in the way some suggest. Western navies have been practising for decades against the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) fast attack craft threat, many of which are also now uncrewed. As with missiles, early detection is key, particularly if there is a swarm, and then speed and manoeuvre are your greatest allies. There is the added advantage of being able to jam the uplink providing you have the right kit onboard.
The problem in the Gulf is that the IRGC swarm at passing warships all the time and then pull away at the last minute. It’s a game of holding one’s nerve and it isn’t a huge amount of fun to play. However, if the Houthis muster a swarm attack, and it manages to get out to sea, there will be no such doubts and the jets will probably leave nothing for the warships to do.
There are no absolutes in war but it’s safe to say that if you have all the layers in place, and you are worked up and on top of your game as the US and Royal Navies are in the Red Sea, then attacking a naval task force is very hard. If you don’t have the layers, and your systems are either not very good or not even in use – as with the Russians in the Black Sea – then you can be defeated by simple and unsophisticated threats....
In the meantime, carriers and crewed warships are not obsolete. Well run and with the right layers in place, they remain very hard to defeat. If you’re not paying attention and these layers are absent, then they are less so. The Royal Navy and the US Navy are operating at the left end of this continuum in the Red Sea. The Russians in the Black Sea are on the right. A fight in the China Sea would stretch the US Navy, for sure, but by no means as much as the people who have already written off carriers would imagine.
Tom Sharpe commanded four different Royal Navy warships, including a surface combatant, and was a specialist anti-air warfare officer.... 
Bring back the Mongol Empire!
