Coronavirus

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billy.pilgrim
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Re: Coronavirus

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GoCubsGo wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:35 am
Shower thought (Hey, at least I took one today!),

Now that the pandemic curve appears to be flattening in NY and Ca. how long until the RWNJ's claim all the social distancing/economic shutdown was an unnecessary hoax to destroy our country?
Hasn't that been an ongoing right wing theme thang?

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O Really
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Re: Coronavirus

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O Really wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:58 pm
Biden hasn't had much of a role, or any way to get one. He has no authority, and it wouldn't likely go well to constantly carp, and there's certainly not anything to support or praise.
Reconsidered since Trump immediately rolled out his anti-Biden ad.

Trash him, Joe! Trash him with his own vids and quotes. Play "I take no responsibility" every day. Play "{virus} is latest Democratic hoax" every day, along with "it's just a couple of Chinese is California - it'll be over by April." Get Bloomberg to pay for it.

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neoplacebo
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Re: Coronavirus

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O Really wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:52 pm
O Really wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:58 pm
Biden hasn't had much of a role, or any way to get one. He has no authority, and it wouldn't likely go well to constantly carp, and there's certainly not anything to support or praise.
Reconsidered since Trump immediately rolled out his anti-Biden ad.

Trash him, Joe! Trash him with his own vids and quotes. Play "I take no responsibility" every day. Play "{virus} is latest Democratic hoax" every day, along with "it's just a couple of Chinese is California - it'll be over by April." Get Bloomberg to pay for it.
Biden could add trump's little tweet (now appearing) in which trump lauds "Former POW Appreciation Day" and lavishes praise and a little flag waving bullshit to former POW's. But Biden can show how this tweet don't exactly go with trump's idiotic demeaning of John McCain back in 2016 when he squawked that McCain was not a war hero "because he got captured; I like people who weren't captured." Another of my favorite idiotic trump acts was when he mocked the disabled reporter by waving his arms around in a spastic type motion and babbled some more nonsense. It all serves to illustrate how trump belongs in a cage with other simians where he can do his tricks on a constant basis.

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billy.pilgrim
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Re: Coronavirus

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O Really wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:52 pm
O Really wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:58 pm
Biden hasn't had much of a role, or any way to get one. He has no authority, and it wouldn't likely go well to constantly carp, and there's certainly not anything to support or praise.
Reconsidered since Trump immediately rolled out his anti-Biden ad.

Trash him, Joe! Trash him with his own vids and quotes. Play "I take no responsibility" every day. Play "{virus} is latest Democratic hoax" every day, along with "it's just a couple of Chinese is California - it'll be over by April." Get Bloomberg to pay for it.
And don't just preach to the choir, do it on fox. embarrass their listeners for their bad choices. Had Hillary gotten 1% of the fox only crowd to research, and think for themselves, she would have won.

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neoplacebo
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Re: Coronavirus

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For the past two days, the headline in the local newspaper has been that Ballad Health, a corporate medical entity that recently bought out or otherwise took control of virtually all hospitals in this area. is suddenly laying off 1,300 of their workers. I just think this is a scam for them to suck up some government money and think they should be investigated. But I'm sure as hell not gonna write Marsha Blackburn about it. That stupid attention seeking whore. She's probably the one who told them to do this.

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bannination
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Re: Coronavirus

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Help me out here....

We're testing 150,000 people daily for CV, that number does not appear to be growing. On average between 17% and 20% result in positives giving us about 30,000 positive people per day.

If the tests do not increase in numbers, we're going to be stuck at 30,000 people per day making the curve look "flat" while it could and probably is anything but.

The numbers of new infected per day are complete horseshit.

Am I missing something?

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Vrede too
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Re: Coronavirus

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bannination wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:53 pm
Help me out here....

We're testing 150,000 people daily for CV, that number does not appear to be growing. On average between 17% and 20% result in positives giving us about 30,000 positive people per day.

If the tests do not increase in numbers, we're going to be stuck at 30,000 people per day making the curve look "flat" while it could and probably is anything but.

The numbers of new infected per day are complete horseshit.

Am I missing something?
The numbers of newly infected per day will always be an estimate, based only in part on the numbers of new diagnosed positives per day. Hopefully the latter number is pretty accurate. It would be nice if the estimates are also pretty accurate, but modeling can fail.

Also, if the curve is steepening the "between 17% and 20%" positives will increase to a higher percentage, increasing the newly infected estimate. Otherwise, we've plateaued, unless the characteristics of who is being tested is changing. For example, if the percent positive drops in the short term that does not necessarily mean we've reached the apex. It could be just that the ongoing or increased testing is broadening to reach somewhat less vulnerable people or people that we're less suspicious of having the disease.

Complex stuff. I'm good with accepting whether the epidemiologists and public health folks tell us if things are getting better or not.
"When you can make people believe absurdities, you can make them commit atrocities."
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Ulysses
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Re: Coronavirus

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Graphs can be misleading.

One must take a careful look at the legends for each axis.

For example, is the graph of new cases each day? Or of total cases to date each day?
Buh-Bye, President Plump...

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neoplacebo
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Re: Coronavirus

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Ulysses wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:24 am
Graphs can be misleading.

One must take a careful look at the legends for each axis.

For example, is the graph of new cases each day? Or of total cases to date each day?
Wouldn't a graph of "total cases to date" by definition include "new cases each day?" If not, why not? And if not, the first graph could not correctly be referred to as "total cases to date" because that figure would necessarily have to include cases for that particular day. Any graph that is named "total cases to date," assuming it's accurate, would automatically reveal "new cases each day" just by looking at the difference between one day and the next or the next or the next......

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Ulysses
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Re: Coronavirus

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neoplacebo wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:25 am
Ulysses wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:24 am
Graphs can be misleading.

One must take a careful look at the legends for each axis.

For example, is the graph of new cases each day? Or of total cases to date each day?
Wouldn't a graph of "total cases to date" by definition include "new cases each day?" If not, why not? And if not, the first graph could not correctly be referred to as "total cases to date" because that figure would necessarily have to include cases for that particular day. Any graph that is named "total cases to date," assuming it's accurate, would automatically reveal "new cases each day" just by looking at the difference between one day and the next or the next or the next......
Well, if the Y axis shows new cases per day, and the X axis shows days, then if there are 30 new cases each day the curve would be perfectly flat. But, if the Y axis shows all active cases to date, then the curve could rise until the rate of transmission tapers off, and existing cases are cured. It could flatten at some point and then approach zero. That's assuming the social distancing and other measures reduce the rate of transmission and cured (or deceased) cases are no longer counted.

In other words, for the same data set, the two graphs would show different curves, because different subsets of data is being plotted in each graph.
Buh-Bye, President Plump...

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neoplacebo
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Re: Coronavirus

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Ulysses wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:47 am
neoplacebo wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:25 am
Ulysses wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:24 am
Graphs can be misleading.

One must take a careful look at the legends for each axis.

For example, is the graph of new cases each day? Or of total cases to date each day?
Wouldn't a graph of "total cases to date" by definition include "new cases each day?" If not, why not? And if not, the first graph could not correctly be referred to as "total cases to date" because that figure would necessarily have to include cases for that particular day. Any graph that is named "total cases to date," assuming it's accurate, would automatically reveal "new cases each day" just by looking at the difference between one day and the next or the next or the next......
Well, if the Y axis shows new cases per day, and the X axis shows days, then if there are 30 new cases each day the curve would be perfectly flat. But, if the Y axis shows all active cases to date, then the curve could rise until the rate of transmission tapers off, and existing cases are cured. It could flatten at some point and then approach zero. That's assuming the social distancing and other measures reduce the rate of transmission and cured (or deceased) cases are no longer counted.

In other words, for the same data set, the two graphs would show different curves, because different subsets of data is being plotted in each graph.
Well, as you say, if the Y axis shows "total cases to date" and the X axis is time, each gradation being a calendar day, the "new cases each day" data can be easily determined from the "total cases to date" data just by adding or subtracting one day's data from the previous or next day's data. After all, the set of data called "total cases to date" HAS to include the cases that are discovered that day, or the next day, etc. Once a case is included in the "total cases to date" figure, that case, nor any others already discovered, does not just go away; it's part of the total cases to date. I don't see how two separate graphs would be needed to come up with either total cases to date or total new cases per day. The two sets of data are co dependent; new cases per day become part of total cases to date as each day passes. This graph would not be a curve, but instead a linear progression; total cases to date cannot be anything other than an increasing quantity until it stops, at which point the end of total cases to date will by default represent NO new cases per day. The graph I see looks like a steep hill that at some point along the time axis becomes a plateau or straight horizontal line indicating no new cases per day but still shows total cases to date. If I drink a case of beer on Monday and drink half a case on Tuesday, total cases to date equals 1.5 and it would be apparent from the difference between Monday and Tuesday that new cases per day between those two days equals .5 and this can continue until either the beer or the money is gone.

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Vrede too
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Re: Coronavirus

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neoplacebo wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:34 pm
... trump himself turns these supposedly serious briefings into a brag fest about himself, how popular he is on Facebook, how high his tv ratings are, or why nothing is his fault....
Despite being roundly criticized for it in March, the CiC - Cretin in Chief is still at it:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/mark-hamill- ... news_index
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

The Wall Street Journal always “forgets” to mention that the ratings for the White House Press Briefings are “through the roof” (Monday Night Football, Bachelor Finale, according to @nytimes) & is only way for me to escape the Fake News & get my views across. WSJ is Fake News!
What a self-absorbed crybaby!
Mark Hamill
@HamillHimself

Perpetually obsessed with ratings & praise for himself, but still not a word of sympathy for the suffering or those who died. The lack of empathy is remarkable. The Thing imitates human behavior far more convincingly than he does. 👾👽

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:thumbup:
"When you can make people believe absurdities, you can make them commit atrocities."
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Ulysses
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Re: Coronavirus

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neoplacebo wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:14 am

Well, as you say, if the Y axis shows "total cases to date" and the X axis is time, each gradation being a calendar day, the "new cases each day" data can be easily determined from the "total cases to date" data just by adding or subtracting one day's data from the previous or next day's data. After all, the set of data called "total cases to date" HAS to include the cases that are discovered that day, or the next day, etc. Once a case is included in the "total cases to date" figure, that case, nor any others already discovered, does not just go away; it's part of the total cases to date. I don't see how two separate graphs would be needed to come up with either total cases to date or total new cases per day. The two sets of data are co dependent; new cases per day become part of total cases to date as each day passes. This graph would not be a curve, but instead a linear progression; total cases to date cannot be anything other than an increasing quantity until it stops, at which point the end of total cases to date will by default represent NO new cases per day. The graph I see looks like a steep hill that at some point along the time axis becomes a plateau or straight horizontal line indicating no new cases per day but still shows total cases to date. If I drink a case of beer on Monday and drink half a case on Tuesday, total cases to date equals 1.5 and it would be apparent from the difference between Monday and Tuesday that new cases per day between those two days equals .5 and this can continue until either the beer or the money is gone.
What I was trying to say is that the two graphs would have different curves, due to the differences in the values being plotted. A hybrid graph could be constructed with two Y axii, where the one on the left would be total active cases to date and the one on the right, new cases per day. This would illustrate the difference in how the data looks depending on how it is plotted.

Other than that, the curves need to be flattened and ideally go down to Y zero over time.
Buh-Bye, President Plump...

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Vrede too
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Re: Coronavirus

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Vrede too wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:25 pm
neoplacebo wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:34 pm
... trump himself turns these supposedly serious briefings into a brag fest about himself, how popular he is on Facebook, how high his tv ratings are, or why nothing is his fault....
Despite being roundly criticized for it in March, the CiC - Cretin in Chief is still at it:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/mark-hamill- ... 04969.html
Trump tweets about ratings for his coronavirus press briefings for the 3rd day in a row as US death toll surpasses 18,000 and unemployment nears 17 million

Wow, just wow.
"When you can make people believe absurdities, you can make them commit atrocities."
-- Voltaire

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Ulysses
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Re: Coronavirus

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People watch train wrecks, too.
Buh-Bye, President Plump...

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Ulysses
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"Distracted"

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Here's a great video on Trump's latest excuse for dropping the ball... he claims he was "distracted" by his own impeachment, so his inadequate response is not his fault... but the facts say otherwise...

Buh-Bye, President Plump...

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billy.pilgrim
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Re: "Distracted"

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Ulysses wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 6:21 am
Here's a great video on Trump's latest excuse for dropping the ball... he claims he was "distracted" by his own impeachment, so his inadequate response is not his fault... but the facts say otherwise...

Now that's an ad that needs to run on fox. Where do I donate?

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Ulysses
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Re: "Distracted"

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billy.pilgrim wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 10:07 am
Now that's an ad that needs to run on fox. Where do I donate?
Forget Fox News.
Buh-Bye, President Plump...

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O Really
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Re: "Distracted"

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Ulysses wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:50 pm
billy.pilgrim wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 10:07 am
Now that's an ad that needs to run on fox. Where do I donate?
Forget Fox News.
No, take the battle to them. Fox News watchers are gullible, but never get exposed to anything but the Fox/Trump line. Put something else in front of them and do it often and in a manner they're susceptible to, and some will believe it.

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billy.pilgrim
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Re: "Distracted"

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Ulysses wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 6:21 am
Here's a great video on Trump's latest excuse for dropping the ball... he claims he was "distracted" by his own impeachment, so his inadequate response is not his fault... but the facts say otherwise...


Great ad - for election tomorrow, but by November he will be claiming success as the facts become more and more muddled.

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