Single hurricane thread

[GoCubsGo]

Thing's a beast.

[billy.pilgrim]

Thing's a beast.

Why do you say that?

[billy.pilgrim]

Thing's a beast.

Why do you say that?


https://www.tampabay.com/hurricane/2022 ... h-florida/

Compare to

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/image ... icane-ivan

https://images.app.goo.gl/9SqMewuU5gcb4mmm7

[O Really]

Maybe I just notice it more, but it feels like the European model is always more correct. This has been going on for years. If so, what aren't they fixing the American model?

And for many more things than weather models.

[GoCubsGo]

My uncle's sister and her idiot MAGA husband live on the water up Ft. Meyers bay about 10 miles from the coast.

He wouldn't evacuate because he's afraid of looters.

He must have a hell of a flat screen.

Their house isn't on stilts. Wonder if we will hear from them again.

[O Really]

Thing's a beast.

Why do you say that?

“It’s going to be historic,” said National Weather Service Melbourne meteorologist Kole Fehling.

[O Really]

My uncle's sister and her idiot MAGA husband live on the water up Ft. Meyers bay about 10 miles from the coast.

He wouldn't evacuate because he's afraid of looters.

He must have a hell of a flat screen.

Their house isn't on stilts. Wonder if we will hear from them again.

Darwin at work.

[GoCubsGo]

Darwin at work.

He's very worried about his pontoon boat also.

[Whack9]

What's the storm surge looking like in Greenville?

[O Really]

Darwin at work.

He's very worried about his pontoon boat also.

Oh, it'll probably be OK. My guess is that it will self-park somewhere past the I-75 bridge.

[Vrede too]

He's very worried about his pontoon boat also.

Oh, it'll probably be OK. My guess is that it will self-park somewhere past the I-75 bridge.

MSNBC is reporting live from Naples - under 5 feet of water, on its way to 8 feet at "8 or 9 pm".
Cat 4, just 2 mph short of Cat 5.
High tide arrives shortly, eye landfall right now 3:13 pm EDT - looks like Bokeelia or thereabouts. Other than the track that affects the most people , this could not be worse.

[Vrede too]

Maybe I just notice it more, but it feels like the European model is always more correct. This has been going on for years. If so, what aren't they fixing the American model?

And for many more things than weather models.

I didn't even think about the broader implications of what I posted.

[Vrede too]

Keeps moving west.

Yep, Tropical Storm Ian rather than Hermine. Up to a Cat 4 , but in theory just a Cat 1 when it strikes in billy.pilgrim's hood. That's the American model. The European model says Tampa gets smacked by a Cat 3.

10 Atlantic Hurricanes That Start With 'I' Have Been Retired Since 2001
Ut-oh.

... Meanwhile, Super Typhoon Noru stomped the Philippines last night, passing just north of Manila. Millions in the path, next up Vietnam.

Make that 11 Atlantic hurricanes that start with 'I' that have been retired since 2001 . They're saying that Ian is at least the 5th strongest to ever strike the US. I'm not sure what the starting year is on that.

Noru was downgraded to a Cat 2 before stomping Da Nang head on, marginally better.

Tropical Storm Roke is meandering off Japan, probably not a threat.

[Vrede too]

... High tide arrives shortly, eye landfall right now 3:13 pm EDT - looks like Bokeelia or thereabouts. Other than the track that affects the most people , this could not be worse.

Same EXACT spot that "strong Category 4" Hurricane Charley made landfall in 2004 . DerSantis is on TV saying that Charley and Ian had the same landfall strength, but that Ian's impact is more widespread and is "much much worse" . 500 mile wide Ian is moving at only 8 mph overnight at an oblique NE angle across a 200 mile wide state.

... My uninformed prediction: Ian restrengthens over the Atlantic and makes GA/SC landfall as a hurricane.

wunderground.com still says TS, but weather dude just said it MIGHT strengthen to a hurricane for landfall #2. Right now Beaufort, SC, between Savannah and Charleston, is in the crosshairs.

[Vrede too]

The video of water being pushed OUT of Tampa and Sarasota Bays is amazing, 9 feet or more. Look it up on YT or on the websites of the news and weather stations.

[GoCubsGo]

Darwin at work.

He's very worried about his pontoon boat also.

Oh, it'll probably be OK. My guess is that it will self-park somewhere past the I-75 bridge.

He may never find the boat.

They're sheltering in the second floor of a neighbors house.

Water is up to their roof.

[GoCubsGo]

This is 90 minutes in real time.

[GoCubsGo]

Houseboat.

[Vrede too]

He may never find the boat.

They're sheltering in the second floor of a neighbors house.

Water is up to their roof.

On the plus side his looters drowned.

[GoCubsGo]

He may never find the boat.

They're sheltering in the second floor of a neighbors house.

Water is up to their roof.

On the plus side his looters drowned.

Found a new use for his flat screen.