2024 Elections

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Vrede too
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Re: 2024 Elections

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How Trump’s greatest policy triumph could derail his bid to win back the White House

... The former president succeeded in constructing an unassailable conservative majority on the Supreme Court, which overturned the constitutional right to an abortion two years ago and set off an extraordinary cascade of consequences that now threatens his 2024 campaign to win a non-consecutive second term.

(loads of discussion about Dolt .45's current waffling and the implications of it)

... Even in red states like Kansas and Ohio, voters have sided with the abortion-rights side of those ballot questions. But some Republicans are infringing the spirit of the Supreme Court ruling – which sent the issue back to individual states – by pushing for a national ban.
:roll: Hypocrites, as always.
... There are real human consequences for the patchwork of policies across the country; many women now have no access to abortion or must travel hundreds of miles to out-of-state clinics. The Florida ban effectively means there is no abortion provision at all across the southeast United States.
:cry:
... Claims that Democrats can win Florida, which has trended toward Republicans, should be taken with a large pinch of salt at this stage. Trump carried the state by 1 point in 2016 and grew his margin to three points four years later. And DeSantis won a thumping reelection victory there in 2022. There’s no guarantee moreover that a voter who wants to preserve abortion rights will also choose Biden on the presidential ballot. Some Republicans will be needed to pass the measure since state constitutional amendments require a 60% threshold in Florida. And this is one state where Trump’s lack of specificity on the issue may help him.

Still, even if the early Democratic excitement doesn’t translate to the Sunshine State becoming more competitive this fall, it could force the ex-president to spend some of his limited campaign resources there, instead of using them to attack Biden in closely contested swing states.
Sweet. Biden has a lot more money to spend.
There are also signs the ballot measure has injected new hope into the Democratic bid to unseat Florida Republican Sen. Rick Scott, who has said that if he were still governor, he would sign the six-week bill.

Scott could be far more vulnerable that Trump statewide. The Republican defeated Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson by less than half a point in 2018, and he’s never run in a presidential year. The campaign of the Democratic front-runner to take him on, former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, called the Florida Supreme Court decisions a “game changer.” And she sent out multiple fundraising emails hailing the ballot initiative.

“This is a HUGE victory in the fight to defend reproductive freedom — but it’s just the beginning. Now, we need to get this initiative across the finish line, defeat Rick Scott at the ballot box, and codify abortion rights,” she said in one of the emails.
GoDM-PGo, buh-bye misogynist Ricky.
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GoCubsGo
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Re: 2024 Elections

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FWIW, the polls have officially tightened.

GoBigMoGo!

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/ ... p-vs-biden
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Re: 2024 Elections

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GoCubsGo wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2024 10:37 am
FWIW, the polls have officially tightened.

GoBigMoGo!

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/ ... p-vs-biden
Debbie Downer here, RCP says Dolt .45 still leads in all Battlegrounds, by 5.0% in NC :angry-banghead:
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Re: 2024 Elections

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Vrede too wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2024 11:09 am
GoCubsGo wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2024 10:37 am
FWIW, the polls have officially tightened.

GoBigMoGo!

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/ ... p-vs-biden
Debbie Downer here, RCP says Dolt .45 still leads in all Battlegrounds, by 5.0% in NC :angry-banghead:
From the glass is half full department....except for WSJ's two-three week old poll, there isn't any current polling.
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Re: 2024 Elections

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I seriously doubt that Trump has picked up any new lasting support past his hard core, despite dissatisfaction with Biden among various groups. But at this point in the year, Trump's cult is totally in for him. Everybody else is still somewhat in denial and asking "is this all there is... to a circus?"


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Re: 2024 Elections

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The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2024

1. West Virginia - retiring DINO > R

2. Montana - D > R :crybaby:

3. Ohio - D > R wingnut

4. Nevada - D > R

5. Arizona - retiring DINO/Inde > R wingnut

6. Pennsylvania - D > carpetbagging Connecticut R

7. Michigan - D > R

8. Wisconsin - D > R

9. Maryland - D > RINO :problem:

10. Texas - R > D

Not all of these will come to pass, but in such a narrowly divided Senate it's distressing that the Dems only have one opportunity to pick up a seat and 9 to lose them.
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Re: 2024 Elections

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Ted Cruz Is Getting Nervous He’s Going to Lose His Senate Seat

Hence, some very shady fundraising. Fingers crossed.
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Re: 2024 Elections

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GoCubsGo wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2024 2:59 pm
Vrede too wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2024 11:09 am
GoCubsGo wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2024 10:37 am
FWIW, the polls have officially tightened.

GoBigMoGo!

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/ ... p-vs-biden
Debbie Downer here, RCP says Dolt .45 still leads in all Battlegrounds, by 5.0% in NC :angry-banghead:
From the glass is half full department....except for WSJ's two-three week old poll, there isn't any current polling.
From the glass is broken department....
RFK Jr. Adviser Makes Shocking Admission about Campaign’s True Goal
The goal isn’t actually to become president.


Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has been described as a spoiler candidate for president by supporters of Joe Biden, and even by Kennedy himself. But the Kennedy campaign’s New York director is taking it a step further.

In a meeting with Republicans in the Empire State, Rita Palma said that “our mutual enemy is Biden.”

“The only way that Trump can even, remote possibility of taking New York is if Bobby is on the ballot. If it’s Trump versus Biden, Biden wins. Biden wins six days, seven days a week. With Bobby in the mix, anything can happen,” Palma said on video of the meeting, dated Friday and viewed by CNN....

“The only way for him, for Bobby, to shake it up and to get rid of Biden is if he’s on the ballot in every state, including New York,” she said....
:obscene-birdiered: :obscene-birdiered:
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Re: 2024 Elections

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So Kennedy-in-name-only (KINO) announces that his goal is to help get Trump elected. Consider, if you've got people that don't want Trump or Biden, they might vote for a protest candidate, even a wacko like KINO. But if the fool announces for one major candidate or the other, he pretty much limits his support to those who also want to see Trump elected, who might as well then vote for Trump. Am I missing something here?

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Re: 2024 Elections

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O Really wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2024 12:38 am
So Kennedy-in-name-only (KINO) announces that his goal is to help get Trump elected. Consider, if you've got people that don't want Trump or Biden, they might vote for a protest candidate, even a wacko like KINO. But if the fool announces for one major candidate or the other, he pretty much limits his support to those who also want to see Trump elected, who might as well then vote for Trump. Am I missing something here?
Image
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Re: 2024 Elections

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O Really wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2024 12:38 am
So Kennedy-in-name-only (KINO) announces that his goal is to help get Trump elected. Consider, if you've got people that don't want Trump or Biden, they might vote for a protest candidate, even a wacko like KINO. But if the fool announces for one major candidate or the other, he pretty much limits his support to those who also want to see Trump elected, who might as well then vote for Trump. Am I missing something here?
"KINO" - I love it. Coin it yourself?

To be fair, it wasn't a KINO announcement. It was one of his state chiefs at a supposedly private GQP gathering. We'll see if KINO disavows the ploy.

Undecided voters are usually oblivious idiots. Some of them will swallow the "protest candidate" snake oil, regardless, and the concern is that too many would have otherwise voted Dem.
A clown with a flamethrower still has a flamethrower.
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Re: 2024 Elections

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:think: My tactic of voting for GQP wingnuts in the primary could backfire:
Far-right politics could hurt business in North Carolina, some fear. Again.

... Turnbull, a registered Independent, was alarmed when candidates she viewed as bad for business, all MAGA devotees prone to trumpeting conspiracy theories, recently clinched the Republican nominations for crucial state offices. There was Dan Bishop for attorney general, who had echoed false claims the 2020 election was stolen. There was Michele Morrow for the top education seat, who had commented “Death to ALL traitors!!” under an illustration of former president Barack Obama in an electric chair. And there was Mark Robinson for governor, who had declared that transgender women should be arrested if they enter the ladies’ restroom.

“My ballot is normally purple,” Turnbull said. “But this? It makes me sick.”

As far-right contenders dominate the GOP ticket in a state known for its flourishing economy, the business community is bracing for potential fallout - the kind that stung North Carolina eight years ago when industry rebelled against America’s first “bathroom bill.” That decree, which restricted public restroom use by “biological sex,” crumbled just 12 months later after PayPal, CoStar, Deutsche Bank and Adidas all scrapped projects. Bruce Springsteen and other artists canceled shows. The NBA and the NCAA shuttled games and tournaments elsewhere....

Today, however, Republicans dismiss concerns about a repeat, saying North Carolina is more shielded from culture war blowouts as once-fringe conservatism gains mainstream appeal. Since the HB2 restrictions were lifted, they have pointed out, 10 other states have passed their own bathroom bills.

Yet the demand to embrace inclusivity has swelled, too. The North Carolina Chamber of Commerce rebuked “partisan ideologues that cause division and create controversy” in an unusually biting statement last month, saying the March primary results offer a “startling warning of the looming threats to North Carolina’s business climate.” Officials there did not put a dollar amount on projected losses.
Those damn liberals at the CoC need to stfu.
... Morrow, the GOP candidate for state superintendent, had perpetuated a myth that Jim Carrey, among other actors, drinks the blood of children. And Robinson had criticized school shooting survivors lobbying for stricter gun laws as “media prosti-tots.”

“That stuff isn’t a ‘both sides’ issue,” (Democratic Durham mayor Leonardo) Williams said. “It’s sane vs. insane.”...
Yep.
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Re: 2024 Elections

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Vrede too wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2024 7:43 am

“That stuff isn’t a ‘both sides’ issue,” (Democratic Durham mayor Leonardo) Williams said. “It’s sane vs. insane.”...
Yep.
I never would have guessed that so many people in this country are in dire need for mental health care.
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Re: 2024 Elections

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Vrede too wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2024 7:23 am


Undecided voters are usually oblivious idiots. Some of them will swallow the "protest candidate" snake oil, regardless, and the concern is that too many would have otherwise voted Dem.
KINO (yes, I thought that up, but stole the idea from "PINO", etc.) was most known for being an environmentalist, which probably would have been attractive to some Biden waverers, but for a long time now he's been known for being anti-vax and promoting other conspiracy theories. I'm not so sure he's going to find much of a constituency for that stuff among disgruntled Dems. But take the whole package, the name, the environmental history, some of his political positions, and a Dem who might otherwise just sit out could say what the hell, I'll vote for Kennedy. Now comes staffer or whoever and says "all we really want to do is help Trump." Doesn't he now lose those frivolous voters? Sure, maybe you're not fond of Biden, but you don't want Trump to get in so now you'll either sit out and hope for the best or hold your nose and vote Biden. Likewise, anti-vax and conspiracy views might attract some who are tired of Trump, particularly those who might otherwise sit out, but now he says he's just a Trump stooge. What's the incentive to vote for KINO?

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Re: 2024 Elections

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O Really wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2024 11:17 am
KINO (yes, I thought that up, but stole the idea from "PINO", etc.) was most known for being an environmentalist, which probably would have been attractive to some Biden waverers, but for a long time now he's been known for being anti-vax and promoting other conspiracy theories. I'm not so sure he's going to find much of a constituency for that stuff among disgruntled Dems. But take the whole package, the name, the environmental history, some of his political positions, and a Dem who might otherwise just sit out could say what the hell, I'll vote for Kennedy. Now comes staffer or whoever and says "all we really want to do is help Trump." Doesn't he now lose those frivolous voters? Sure, maybe you're not fond of Biden, but you don't want Trump to get in so now you'll either sit out and hope for the best or hold your nose and vote Biden. Likewise, anti-vax and conspiracy views might attract some who are tired of Trump, particularly those who might otherwise sit out, but now he says he's just a Trump stooge. What's the incentive to vote for KINO?
-0-? What you post makes sense, but what we know is that KINO's NY chief is spinning that KINO hurts Joe in front of RepuQs. She could be lying or wrong.

Here in NC Joe does worse when polling includes KINO, West and Stein, but that may mostly be because of West and Stein.
2024 North Carolina: Trump vs Biden
Trump+4.6

2024 Arizona: Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Trump+5.8
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Re: 2024 Elections

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Take Rasputin out of there and Jolting Joe would be winning.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/ ... p-vs-biden
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Re: 2024 Elections

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GoCubsGo wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2024 6:03 pm
Take Rasputin out of there and Jolting Joe would be winning.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/ ... p-vs-biden
Trump vs. Biden, Trump+0.2

It's weird, the spoilers are getting 13%+, but their impact on the outcome is minimal and well within the MoEs:
Trump vs Biden vs Kennedy vs West vs Stein, Trump+1.9

Might be different in the individual Battleground States.
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Re: 2024 Elections

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Vrede too wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2024 6:46 pm
GoCubsGo wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2024 6:03 pm
Take Rasputin out of there and Jolting Joe would be winning.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/ ... p-vs-biden
Trump vs. Biden, Trump+0.2

It's weird, the spoilers are getting 13%+, but their impact on the outcome is minimal and well within the MoEs:
Trump vs Biden vs Kennedy vs West vs Stein, Trump+1.9

Might be different in the individual Battleground States.
I hope I'm wrong and NC and more are really in play.

But yeah, it's the seven states that will determine the outcome. Jolting Joe will win the popular vote FWIW.
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Re: 2024 Elections

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Vrede too wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2024 7:23 am
"KINO" - I love it. Coin it yourself?

To be fair, it wasn't a KINO announcement. It was one of his state chiefs at a supposedly private GQP gathering. We'll see if KINO disavows the ploy.

Undecided voters are usually oblivious idiots. Some of them will swallow the "protest candidate" snake oil, regardless, and the concern is that too many would have otherwise voted Dem.
She's gone:

RFK Jr. New York campaign staff member Rita Palma has been fired

Note KINO's lack of denial that the campaign goal is defeating Joe :roll:
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Re: 2024 Elections

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GoCubsGo wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2024 9:39 pm
I hope I'm wrong and NC and more are really in play.

But yeah, it's the seven states that will determine the outcome. Jolting Joe will win the popular vote FWIW.
No Labels Won't Run A Ticket In The 2024 Presidential Election
The third-party group couldn't find a candidate to run as an alternative to Joe Biden and Donald Trump in November's presidential election.


Good. Now it's left to KINO and to a lesser extent West and Stein to be spoilers or not.
A clown with a flamethrower still has a flamethrower.
-- Charlie Sykes on MSNBC
1312. ETTD.

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