Coronavirus

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Vrede too
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Re: Coronavirus

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O Really wrote:
Fri Jan 22, 2021 6:51 pm
It has successfully kept osteoporosis at bay. Tripped last spring and took a hard fall smack on concrete. Knee, wrist, and jaw took most of the hit. Nothing damaged past bruising. Thanks, Prolia.
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US CV-19 death every 30 seconds.
500K by the end of Feb, more than WW2.
One year after we became aware, Jan will be our worst month yet - an unacceptable and unnecessary tragedy.
Whack9's Greenville County is the worst for numbers of cases in SC, positivity rate is huge in the mid 20%s.

:cry:
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Vrede too
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Re: Coronavirus

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NY nursing home virus deaths were undercounted, AG says

Very sad.

However, their math baffles me.
New York may have undercounted COVID-19 deaths of nursing home residents by as much as 50%, the state’s attorney general said in a report released Thursday.

Attorney General Letitia James has, for months, been examining discrepancies between the number of deaths being reported by the state's Department of Health, and the number of deaths reported by the homes themselves.

Her investigators looked at a sample of 62 of the state’s roughly 600 nursing homes. They reported 1,914 deaths of residents from COVID-19, while the state Department of Health logged only 1,229 deaths at those same facilities.

If that same pattern exists statewide, James' report said, it would mean the state is underreporting deaths by nearly 56%....
First, "nearly 56%" is not "as much as 50%".
Then, I figure that "1,229" is a 36% undercount of "1,914 deaths", not "nearly 56%."

Am I wrong? If not, who screwed up - the reporter (sad, but understandable), the NY AG (not acceptable), or health officials (scary)?
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O Really
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Re: Coronavirus

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I think other questions might be more significant:
Whether attributed to "nursing home" or "hospital", were all covid caused deaths reported somewhere?
Who would benefit by an intentional undercount?
If most everybody who died was counted somewhere, and nobody has a good reason the differences were intentional, then what difference does it make other than providing an opportunity to clarify and standardize reporting standards between the nursing homes and the state.

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Vrede too
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Re: Coronavirus

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O Really wrote:
Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:33 pm
I think other questions might be more significant:
Whether attributed to "nursing home" or "hospital", were all covid caused deaths reported somewhere?
Who would benefit by an intentional undercount?
If most everybody who died was counted somewhere, and nobody has a good reason the differences were intentional, then what difference does it make other than providing an opportunity to clarify and standardize reporting standards between the nursing homes and the state.
Well sure, but those are mentioned in the article. There was no reason for me to repeat them and I don't mean to imply that the errors I cited are most important. It's just sloppiness that stands out to me.

The AG's investigation is ongoing.
... Part of the gap is explained by a decision by New York's health agency to exclude from its count the number of nursing home patients who die after being transferred to hospitals. Hospital and nursing home officials say the state has ready access to that figure.
The nursing homes clearly benefit from this. If the total combined deaths is low, Cuomo and New York health officials benefit.
... Gov. Andrew Cuomo promised to take a “special” effort to protect nursing homes early on last spring. He tasked James last year with investigating how nursing homes were complying with COVID-19 guidelines last year.

James said her review found that a lack of infection controls at nursing homes also put residents at increased risk of harm, while nursing homes that had lower federal scores for staffing had higher COVID-19 fatality rates.

“As the pandemic and our investigations continue, it is imperative that we understand why the residents of nursing homes in New York unnecessarily suffered at such an alarming rate,” said Attorney General James. “While we cannot bring back the individuals we lost to this crisis, this report seeks to offer transparency that the public deserves and to spur increased action to protect our most vulnerable residents."
If the death toll is actually higher than stated, that increases the mandate to improve nursing home care and may make more resources available for doing so. At least, that's how it should have worked pre-vaccine.
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O Really
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yeah - I just tend to follow the maxim, "Never attribute to malice what could be more easily explained by stupidity."

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Re: Coronavirus

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O Really wrote:
Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:45 pm
Yeah - I just tend to follow the maxim, "Never attribute to malice what could be more easily explained by stupidity."
It would not surprise me at all if it was found that under reporting was actually due to the profit motive of the owners of these facilities. Some of these places (like Carolina Village in Hendersonville)charge several thousand dollars a month so they have a strong interest in avoiding bad publicity. Plus take into account that the majority of the staff at these places are minimum wage workers who as far as anyone knows bathe in tubs of germs at night and go to work as unwashed hungover minimum wage workers who hate what they do and wish they'd die. But I could be wrong.

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Re: Coronavirus

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So today is February 1 - it's about a week and half until we get our second vaccine, and then by about the end of the month we should be bullet proofish. We have said that we're still not going to change much in our life - still wear our 95's and stay away from other people, etc., but it has occurred to me that there are quite a few things that get better/easier after vaccination. We can shop without trying to limit visits to once a week; we can be more comfortable scheduling medical/dental visits and haircuts, etc.; we can go back to the gym, when it opens; we may sit down at an outside restaurant; we'll be comfortable going to some indoor things that do open - museums, etc. But even with the vaccination, it will be a long time before we'd be comfortable going to a crowded venue, concert or festival. That's what a year of avoiding people like the plague-carriers they could be does for your mind, I guess. The idea of being stuffed into a big mass of people like the New Orleans Jazzfest I used to love is appalling. But still, there's a great deal of peace of mine in getting the vaccine. It's supposed to be 95% effective, and with a 95 mask and reasonable people-avoidance our chances of getting covid are pretty much zip zilch nada. Now if the anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers will just die off or go live in South Dakota ...

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Re: Coronavirus

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You still have to be careful as two vaccinated congresscritters just proved.

They still caught it but are asymptomatic. But they can still spread it and are now in isolation.
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O Really
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Re: Coronavirus

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Understood - 95% chance of not getting it still means 5% chance you do. But the difference is really more mental than anything else.

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Re: Coronavirus

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The 95% effectiveness is of being asymptomatic after catching the bug. I believe your chances of acquiring it are unchanged.
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neoplacebo
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Re: Coronavirus

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I put my face in a creek.

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Vrede too
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Re: Coronavirus

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Re: Coronavirus

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neoplacebo wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 4:25 pm
I put my face in a creek.
Do you use a snorkel?
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GoCubsGo
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Re: Coronavirus

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Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but I'm interpreting this as the efficacy as it relates to symptoms not the spread.
Vaccine efficacy reflects disease prevention, a poor indicator of transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 since asymptomatic people can be highly infectious
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Vrede too
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Re: Coronavirus

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GoCubsGo wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 5:16 pm
Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but I'm interpreting this as the efficacy as it relates to symptoms not the spread.
If it can still always be spread the efficacy is zero.
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Re: Coronavirus

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Vrede too wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 5:19 pm
GoCubsGo wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 5:16 pm
Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but I'm interpreting this as the efficacy as it relates to symptoms not the spread.
If it can still always be spread the efficacy is zero.
Isn't the effect of the vaccine is that it prevents the onset of symptoms and sickness of Covid?

I.e. You can still carry it and spread it like anyone else.
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Vrede too
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Re: Coronavirus

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GoCubsGo wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 8:31 pm
Isn't the effect of the vaccine is that it prevents the onset of symptoms and sickness of Covid?
For some. For most, though, it prevents infection entirely. This is why Fauci has been saying that widespread vaccination will prevent mutation. Otherwise, all we would be doing is selecting for resistant strains.
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Ulysses
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Re: Coronavirus

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GoCubsGo wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 8:31 pm

Isn't the effect of the vaccine is that it prevents the onset of symptoms and sickness of Covid?

I.e. You can still carry it and spread it like anyone else.
Everyone's immune system may be slightly different. For most, an effective vaccine against a virus will prevent infection. For others, they might get infected but the immune response engendered by the vaccine will result in a less serious disease. But the primary value of a vaccine is to prevent infection from the start.

Of course, if the pathogen mutates sufficiently to bypass the immune response caused by vaccination, then all bets are off.

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O Really
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Re: Coronavirus

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Not that I know anything about it other than what I read, but it seems some of the articles toss around the term "infected" pretty loosely. There may be other definitions, but one definition of infection is "...the invasion of an organism's body tissues by disease-causing agents, their multiplication, and the reaction of host tissues to the infectious agents and the toxins they produce." So it would seem that the vaccination can't prevent an invasion, but if there is no illness then there wouldn't be an infection because the body's defences prevented it. Nevertheless, if somebody with covid coughs in your face, you might still absorb some virus and might spread that to whoever you breathe on during the time your own body is disposing of it. Conversely, if your body's defences act quickly enough, the virus has no opportunity to get spread elsewhere. Whatever, I'm really happy to get the shots.

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Re: Coronavirus

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Which I guess brings me back to my original point. Indoor dining, movie going, non mask wearing etc. or what we think of as normal life is still a ways off into the future.

Even after getting vaccinated I fully expect to stay in precautionary mode for some time. Maybe when the whole family is vaccinated we can share a meal together.
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