President* Trump

[Vrede too]

Douchebag.

He can't unilaterally "cut off funding". School money is appropriated and allocated by law. He's already been smacked down on trying to cut off funding for sanctuary cities, and pandemic fears are even more justifiable.

[O Really]

Douchebag.

He can't unilaterally "cut off funding". School money is appropriated and allocated by law. He's already been smacked down on trying to cut off funding for sanctuary cities, and pandemic fears are even more justifiable.

True, but he'd undoubtedly like to try. Federal funds are only about 8% of public school revenue, which is mostly funded by states and localities. But the 8% is almost exclusively directed toward disadvantaged schools/students and students with disabilities, so it's perfectly understandable why he'd want to cut it off.

[neoplacebo]

I wish we could have a story like this one from South Korea here for trump.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/police-seoul ... 17194.html

[billy.pilgrim]

The way I see it, this is actually worse than the article reports.

"Mediaite reported on Wednesday that Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth is doubling down on his "Primary Model,” which has correctly predicted five out of the past six elections since 1996 and every single election but two in the past 108 years.

“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth said. "This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced."

As Mediaite noted, the two elections the model failed to predict were the 1960 election of John F. Kennedy and the 2000 election of George W. Bush"

Gore won the vote in 2000, but was appointed by judicial activists.

At 10, I wasn't paying a lot of attention to politics and don't know the validity of claims that pappy was involved in some voter fraud to get JFK elected.

So at the worse, this model only misses 1 election in the last 108 years, at best, it misses none. It give trump a 91% chance. I see it closer to 100%.

Come October we'll see either a big surprise, or 1/2 to most of the country will be convinced that Alzheimer Joe is too old for the job.

I'll have to agree. Look at how Obama and Clinton aged from the stress of being a working president.

I'll vote for him and hope that he steps down after 2.5 years.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/profes ... pite-polls

[GoCubsGo]

Rule of Law?

7-2

Punted?

[GoCubsGo]

Mother Fuckers.

[O Really]

The way I see it, this is actually worse than the article reports.

"Mediaite reported on Wednesday that Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth is doubling down on his "Primary Model,” which has correctly predicted five out of the past six elections since 1996 and every single election but two in the past 108 years.

“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth said. "This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced."

The professor's model is indeed impressive, but as every investment guide says (after bragging about their historical results) "historical performance does not guarantee future results." And the "home field advantage" doesn't do much good when teams are mismatched. The professor's model essentially comes down to voter enthusiasm, particularly in primaries, and if all that mattered was supporter enthusiasm, Trump would indeed have a leg up. But in so many ways, this administration* and election are not typical of those in the past, and is significantly different in several important ways. Dems may not be so enthusiastic over Biden personally, but they (along with the unaffiliated) are enthusiastic about getting rid of Trump. And while in 2016, voters who "hated them both" broke mostly for Trump, it appears at this point that they're pretty much all going against him. And none of those prior elections had such a conflagration of corruption, incompetence, and major national issues. I'm saying the model won't work this year.

[neoplacebo]

It reminds me of peaceful partiers model about liberalism and racism. Lots of semi relevant info with a healthy dose of wishful thinking.

[Vrede too]

Valid or not, we need warnings like this in order to fend off complacency. I don't think any of us here think that Joe Gaffe is the ideal candidate, and that does have Nov consequences.

[Vrede too]

Mother Fuckers.

I've only read a couple of articles, but it's weird that I'm seeing bunches of headlines calling this either a SCOTUS victory or a loss for PINO.

[O Really]

Mother Fuckers.

I've only read a couple of articles, but it's weird that I'm seeing bunches of headlines calling this either a SCOTUS victory or a loss for PINO.

All in perspective. On the merits, Trump lost them both, being that (a) NY prosecutors get his records; and (b) they didn't support his immunity from Congressional inquiry. But - the Congress decision lets him continue to try to run out the clock and release of records to the NY grand jury isn't immediately released to the public. So if you expected him to get pasted, there's some good news in the decisions. If you expected him to skate, then your guess was wrong. But to decide whether it was win or lose for the impeached imposter, all you have to do is see how he reacted. Hint: not well.

As I said... https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/newspoli ... li=AAggNb9

[O Really]

Valid or not, we need warnings like this in order to fend off complacency. I don't think any of us here think that Joe Gaffe is the ideal candidate, and that does have Nov consequences.

Gaffes are just things that people who already don't like you can make fun of. It would have to be pretty bad to actually affect many votes.

[Vrede too]

All in perspective. On the merits, Trump lost them both, being that (a) NY prosecutors get his records; and (b) they didn't support his immunity from Congressional inquiry. But - the Congress decision lets him continue to try to run out the clock and release of records to the NY grand jury isn't immediately released to the public. So if you expected him to get pasted, there's some good news in the decisions. If you expected him to skate, then your guess was wrong. But to decide whether it was win or lose for the impeached imposter, all you have to do is see how he reacted. Hint: not well.

As I said... https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/newspoli ... li=AAggNb9

I did not have an opinion on the legal issues, though I hope for full public release.

Anything that pisses off PINO is alright by me.

[Vrede too]

Valid or not, we need warnings like this in order to fend off complacency. I don't think any of us here think that Joe Gaffe is the ideal candidate, and that does have Nov consequences.

Gaffes are just things that people who already don't like you can make fun of. It would have to be pretty bad to actually affect many votes.

I'm more worried about complacency than I am gaffes, though Joe has uttered some doozies.

[neoplacebo]

I think Republicans will stop talking about gaffes after the first debate. Hell, trump can't even read a prepared statement without stumbling with it. trump should have a permanent Homer Simpson "doh" bubble over his head at all times.

[billy.pilgrim]

I think Republicans will stop talking about gaffes after the first debate. Hell, trump can't even read a prepared statement without stumbling with it. trump should have a permanent Homer Simpson "doh" bubble over his head at all times.

Real life should include more people willing to leave with a statement. Hopefully there is a technician working the debates willing to plant the "doh" bubble over his head for a just a few seconds - before incurring trump tweets calling for his hanging on charges of treason.

[O Really]

Good suggestion from somebody that Biden agree to debates only under two conditions:
1. Both candidates disclose taxes (Biden already has) and
2. There's fact checkers who will report at the end on false or misleading statements.

Good idea, but as if.

[neoplacebo]

Good suggestion from somebody that Biden agree to debates only under two conditions:
1. Both candidates disclose taxes (Biden already has) and
2. There's fact checkers who will report at the end on false or misleading statements.

Good idea, but as if.

The best lying contest debate would be with Joe Isuzu and trump. This Joe would still win because he smiles when he lies. trump doesn't.

[O Really]

I'm more worried about complacency than I am gaffes, though Joe has uttered some doozies.

Complacency is/would be bad, but I don't know how much of that we'll get. Trump's win* in 2016 and his whole "invincible" act of bullying, threatening, willing to do anything, yada, has gotten most people spooked. He's viewed like the bad guys in horror films - hit them with the shovel, they still get up. Toss them in the fire, they walk out of it. Shoot them, you just piss the off. But he does have his Repug minions out in the states trying to suppress votes, create distrust of the system, and generally violate every principle of the US Constitution and national tradition. I think all that's enough to stave off complacency no matter how favourable the polls look now.

[GoCubsGo]

I don't get the sense anyone's taking this election for granted, the stakes are too high.