The way I see it, this is actually worse than the article reports.
"Mediaite reported on Wednesday that Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth is doubling down on his "Primary Model,” which has correctly predicted five out of the past six elections since 1996 and every single election but two in the past 108 years.
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth said. "This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced."
The professor's model is indeed impressive, but as every investment guide says (after bragging about their historical results) "historical performance does not guarantee future results." And the "home field advantage" doesn't do much good when teams are mismatched. The professor's model essentially comes down to voter enthusiasm, particularly in primaries, and if all that mattered was supporter enthusiasm, Trump would indeed have a leg up. But in so many ways, this administration* and election are not typical of those in the past, and is significantly different in several important ways. Dems may not be so enthusiastic over Biden personally, but they (along with the unaffiliated) are enthusiastic about getting rid of Trump. And while in 2016, voters who "hated them both" broke mostly for Trump, it appears at this point that they're pretty much all going against him. And none of those prior elections had such a conflagration of corruption, incompetence, and major national issues. I'm saying the model won't work this year.
Using primaries does eliminate views of non-voters, whereas polling has to rely on the honesty of respondents.
The biggest flaws i see in his method - it can't include an October surprises; therefore, his correct predictions of any election that was won due to something that happened after the primaries must be considered as a failure of his "primaries" model.
Without Comey, Hillary would have won. So, his primary method picking dunald, did pick the president, but could not have been successfully based on the primaries - in other words, he was accidentally right.
Trump: “We had the safest border in the history of our country - or at least recorded history. I guess maybe a thousand years ago it was even better.”
Again, it is a good record. But there is a lot of fluff in it. Like picking teams when there used to be March Madness. Anybody can get most of them right just by going with the odds/favourites - it's the close ones, the Cinderella performances, the opps ones that make the difference. out of 44 Presidents and one president*, 10 have lost reelection bid. Of the ones who didn't, most recent ones at least have had substantial and well-known problems going into the election. Bush the Elder, Carter, Ford, Hoover. Hmmmm, sound like anybody you know?
Again, it is a good record. But there is a lot of fluff in it. Like picking teams when there used to be March Madness. Anybody can get most of them right just by going with the odds/favourites - it's the close ones, the Cinderella performances, the opps ones that make the difference. out of 44 Presidents and one president*, 10 have lost reelection bid. Of the ones who didn't, most recent ones at least have had substantial and well-known problems going into the election. Bush the Elder, Carter, Ford, Hoover. Hmmmm, sound like anybody you know?
K
I do continue to have hope
Trump: “We had the safest border in the history of our country - or at least recorded history. I guess maybe a thousand years ago it was even better.”
Cue a bunch of people who barely graduated high school and never set foot in a university chiming in and explaining how college doesn't provide an education, only an indoctrination.
I hope the prosecutors held back some charges so they can hit him again. Wouldn't be surprised if they did. But a commuted sentence isn't the same as a pardon, and he's still a convicted felon.
I hope the prosecutors held back some charges so they can hit him again. Wouldn't be surprised if they did. But a commuted sentence isn't the same as a pardon, and he's still a convicted felon.
I am hoping that because of the commutation, which means Stone is still a convicted felon, Roger will engage in some voter fraud since he can no longer vote (assuming he lives in FL). Hopefully he will be caught, prosecuted, and jailed. Even trump would not have the balls to pardon him or commute a voter fraud felony sentence after squawking and whining about voter fraud all this time.
For the moment they are choosing to hang together, as the election nears and they are in danger of hanging separately methinks the rats will start jumping off the ship.
I am hoping that because of the commutation, which means Stone is still a convicted felon, Roger will engage in some voter fraud since he can no longer vote (assuming he lives in FL). Hopefully he will be caught, prosecuted, and jailed. Even trump would not have the balls to pardon him or commute a voter fraud felony sentence after squawking and whining about voter fraud all this time.
Felons who have completed their sentences can now vote in FL.
I am hoping that because of the commutation, which means Stone is still a convicted felon, Roger will engage in some voter fraud since he can no longer vote (assuming he lives in FL). Hopefully he will be caught, prosecuted, and jailed. Even trump would not have the balls to pardon him or commute a voter fraud felony sentence after squawking and whining about voter fraud all this time.
Felons who have completed their sentences can now vote in FL.
Opps! I did not know this. I thought I'd read a story recently that the issue of allowing FL felons who have served their sentences to vote was an issue currently being debated. Didn't know it had been settled. In any case, I expect Roger to resume breaking laws very soon.
Opps! I did not know this. I thought I'd read a story recently that the issue of allowing FL felons who have served their sentences to vote was an issue currently being debated. Didn't know it had been settled. In any case, I expect Roger to resume breaking laws very soon.
Floridians restored felon voting rights. The Leg then passed a law that the felons also had to have paid all fines and fees. I think the courts have ruled, but I can't remember which way. PINO's order would remove any Stone fines, I'm not sure if there were also fees.
I hope the prosecutors held back some charges so they can hit him again. Wouldn't be surprised if they did. But a commuted sentence isn't the same as a pardon, and he's still a convicted felon.
Some lawyer-y stuff just happened with Barr and the EDNY that I'm too lazy to look up, but supposedly it's super sketchy and the timing with Roger Stones sentence being commuted raises some eyebrows in the sense that everyone's focusing on Stones commutation and not Barr being corrupt.
... “The Republican Party has grown incredibly from when it was and we have a whole different group of people in the Republican Party,” Mr Trump said on Friday.
“Like people don’t remember, nobody ever heard of it until I came along, nobody remembered it for a long time, or they didn’t use it at least, I use it all the time: Abraham Lincoln was a Republican. You know you say that and people say, ‘I didn’t know that’, but he was Republican, so we’re doing a great job.” ...
Cue a bunch of people who barely graduated high school and never set foot in a university chiming in and explaining how college doesn't provide an education, only an indoctrination.
