2016 Elections

[Vrede too]

CNN/WMUR Poll: Sanders trouncing Clinton in New Hampshire (60% to 33%)

Wow, that's almost hard to believe, and there are some caveats cited in the article.

I hope it's still close in NC by the time the primary comes along.
Otherwise, I'll have to decide whether I'd rather see Cruz or Trump lose in November.

[Boatrocker]

. . . Time for a Pop-Up Book of Republican Phobias.

A lot of topics could go in there. But it's probably best not to imagine the pop-ups for Planned Parenthood, gays, women's health, Hillary, ISIS, etc.

I doubt a publisher would pick up a pop-up book the size of War and Peace.

[rstrong]

Sure, but Christie's problem, other than being a jerk, is that he is McCaining himself to try to appeal to the loons.

NJ.com: Gov. Chris Christie on Tuesday nixed a bill that would have barred carjackers or anyone convicted of gang activity or terroristic threats from owning or purchasing a firearm in New Jersey.

Gotta establish those inbred wingnut credentials.

[Vrede too]

Jeb's Right to Rise PAC has a new ad that shows Terri Schiavo, perhaps Jeb's most shameful moment in a shameful career. Dang, no wonder he's getting trounced with idiots like that on his team.

[Vrede too]

(worth clicking on "YouTube" and then "full screen")

Cowardice, Are you Serious?
Apologies for Freedom; I can't handle this.
When Freedom rings; Answer the Call.
On Your Feet; Stand up Tall.
Freedom's on our Shoulders, USA.

Enemies of Freedom, Face the Music,
c'mon boys, take 'em down.
President Donald Trump knows how,
to make America great.
Deal from strength or get crushed every time.....

I am horrified and mesmerized, with a flashback to psychedelia thrown in.

Here's the story behind the incredible performance by 3 young children at a Donald Trump rally
USA Freedom Kids home
Download $0.99

#HITLER'S YOUTH SERENADE FüHRER @realDonaldTrump

"Enemies of freedom face the music, c'mon boys, take them down"

[Vrede too]

I wonder what the Vegas odds would have been 1 or 2 years ago on a Trump-Bernie election.

[rstrong]

I wonder what the Vegas odds would have been 1 or 2 years ago on a Trump-Bernie election.

The odds are still VERY low.

The 2000 John McCain was his own man, avoided the wingnuttery, and was popular even with those on the left. But anyone running for office as a Republican was given what was essentially a loyalty oath, stipulating that they would support George W. Bush in the forthcoming primaries exclusively, and not McCain, and if they didn't agree, the Party would withhold its financing from their election bid.

In 2008 Ron Paul did very well in the polls and set records for fundraising. Say what you will about him, but he was his own man. And so he won just **1.6%** of the delegate votes in the primaries. Even the wiener vendors got more votes. No doubt for the same reason that McCain lost in 2000. (In 2008 McCain was no longer his own man, and was spouting wingnuttery with the rest.)

Trump may have much of the popular vote, but he won't get the delegates in the primaries. He'll do better than Ron Paul though.

[Vrede too]

Could be. Who do you think anyone has higher odds of being the GOP nominee than Trump (who does not need GOP financing, anyhow)?

[Wneglia]

I wonder what the Vegas odds would have been 1 or 2 years ago on a Trump-Bernie election.

It will be interesting to see how durable Bernie's support is when people realize that even the poor will see their taxes go up by 34%.

[Vrede too]

Dylan Matthews' article including that chart is more nuanced, detailed and self-admittedly up for debate than just the chart. Is that why you didn't link it?

Anyhow, I'm not saying that I think it will be a Trump-Bernie election, just that no one would have thought it even remotely possible 1 or 2 years ago.

[rstrong]

Could be. Who do you think anyone has higher odds of being the GOP nominee

I expect that Jeb! will do a reverse-Paul: Low polling before the primaries, but supported by the delegates.

Cruz has tried desperately to establish his brand as the anti-Republican-establishment candidate, from deep inside the establishment. At this point I suspect that he's the most likely nominee.

than Trump (who does not need GOP financing, anyhow)?

It's not a matter of Trump not needing GOP financing. It's the delegates and anyone running for office as a Republican, who could have financing withheld if they vote for Trump.

[Vrede too]

Could be. Who do you think anyone has higher odds of being the GOP nominee

I expect that Jeb! will do a reverse-Paul: Low polling before the primaries, but supported by the delegates.

I'd give Rubio a better shot than Jeb at this point.

Cruz has tried desperately to establish his brand as the anti-Republican-establishment candidate, from deep inside the establishment. At this point I suspect that he's the most likely nominee.

Interesting. Will the GOP support a sure loser that they can't stand like because they fear Trump more?

than Trump (who does not need GOP financing, anyhow)?

It's not a matter of Trump not needing GOP financing. It's the delegates and anyone running for office as a Republican, who could have financing withheld if they vote for Trump.

Ah.

One site:

Republican Presidential Nomination

Donald Trump evens
Marco Rubio 9/4
Ted Cruz 11/2
Jeb Bush 9/1
Chris Christie 22/1
John Kasich 40/1
Paul Ryan 50/1
Mitt Romney 50/1
Ben Carson 100/1
Rand Paul 150/1
Carly Fiorina 150/1
Mike Huckabee 150/1
Rick Santorum 250/1
Jim Gilmore 250/1

Democratic Presidential Nominatio

Hillary Clinton 1/5
Bernie Sanders 7/2
Joe Biden 14/1
Martin O'Malley 100/1

US Presidential Election 2016

Hillary Clinton 10/11
Donald Trump 3/1
Marco Rubio 6/1
Bernie Sanders 7/1
Ted Cruz 18/1
Jeb Bush 20/1
Michael Bloomberg 25/1
Chris Christie 40/1
Paul Ryan 100/1
John Kasich 100/1
Mitt Romney 100/1
Martin O'Malley 150/1
Ben Carson 200/1
Carly Fiorina 250/1
Rand Paul 250/1
Mike Huckabee 250/1
Jim Gilmore 300/1
Rick Santorum 300/1
Rocky De La Fuente 300/1

[rstrong]

I'd give Rubio a better shot than Jeb at this point.

Right! I keep forgetting about Rubio.

Although it'll be interesting to see how he holds up if he takes the lead. Bachmann, Cain and the rest of the 2012 clown car each held briefly held the lead. Each got a thorough examination by the press and public, and each was dismissed. No doubt Rubio has a few skeletons in his closet - or just embarrassing old quotes and opinions to be dug up - that will come out if he approaches the lead.

[O Really]

In most cases, the delegates are required to vote for the primary winner in their state, at least on the first round of votes. If Trump wins the states, he'll get the nomination. I've read several commentaries of Republican main-line view (all remaining two or three of them, I guess) that say Trump is more acceptable than Cruz. For one, they see his propensity to cut deals as something they can work with. They see his ummm, "fluidity" in ideology to moderate some in the general election and upon (gasp) election. They see Cruz as a disaster without any possible rehabilitation.

For those reasons, I would also rather see Trump as the nominee over any of the others in the car, even though theoretically I should be rooting for the disaster Cruz. But if Hillary really went off the rails somehow and a Republican won, we'd be better with Trump.

[Vrede too]

I'm not sure about the requirements, how many states have them or whether there's any real penalty for breaching them. Anyhow, I think you're correct that they only apply to the first round of voting. Plus, you're forgetting about the super delegates, no small percentage of the total. So, a multi-round, brokered convention is at least possible. What then, is Trump too mistrusted to win, is Cruz too hated to win, who is the default option? Rubio's not revving up those being polled, but Carson is a wingnut by any standard, few seem to want another Bush and the others like Kasich may not get enough votes from the public to even be considered. We'll see, it could be entertaining.

Politics sure is funny. If not for Bridgegate and given how poor the GOP field is, we very well could be on our way to nominee and even POTUS Christie.

Say it does come down to Trump and Cruz. Which is worse, a "Republican" that's relatively effective or an extremist Republican that isn't?

[O Really]

Say it does come down to Trump and Cruz. Which is worse, a "Republican" that's relatively effective or an extremist Republican that isn't?

Back to Trump again.

[Seth Milner]

Cruz wants a one-on-one debate with Trump so as to discuss issues and records. What record? Trump has no record.

[O Really]

Cruz wants a one-on-one debate with Trump so as to discuss issues and records. What record? Trump has no record.

Cruz wants a one-on-one ummm, "debate" so he can appear to be an equal and the two of them above the rest of the peons.
But neither of them have much of a political record. As a senator, Cruz had done nothing but obstruct and alienate his colleagues. Trump's probably had a bigger impact on politics through his contributions, deals offered, and trips to Mar-a-Lago.

[bannination]

I'll take the tax hike in exchange for "free" non-profit health care.

No questions asked.

[Seth Milner]

I'll take the tax hike in exchange for "free" non-profit health care.

No questions asked.

:thumbsup:

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