2016 Elections

[rstrong]

Context: The 2012 Iowa Caucus was won by Rick Santorum.

[billy.pilgrim]

Didn't huckleberry win in 08

[Vrede too]

They say that Iowa's GOP is more religio-rightwing than elsewhere.

Context: The 2012 Iowa Caucus was won by Rick Santorum.

True, but the eventual nominee, Mitt Romney, was 2nd by .03%.

Didn't huckleberry win in 08

True, but the eventual nominee, John McCain, tied for 3rd.

So, Iowa doesn't predict winners, but it does tend to indicate that worse than 3rd is a loser. I'm comfortable with guessing Cruz or Rubio, with establishment favored Rubio being more likely especially after his surprising bump yesterday.

[O Really]

Rubio hasn't been stressed yet. He has been able to just give his little elevator speech over and over. He hasn't been subject to the pounding Trump and Cruz have. When he is, I'm thinking he'll probably find he's a not ready for prime time player. That doesn't mean he won't get the nomination if the others crash and burn, though. Somebody has to get nominated.

More on Rubio's chances here... http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_ ... picks=true

[Vrede too]

Yeah, my thoughts are relative to the GOP competition. I don't know for sure about on Iowa media, but I've seen more ads attacking Rubio (from Jeb's Right to Rise PAC) than I have any other attack ads.

... One site:

Republican Presidential Nomination

Donald Trump evens
Marco Rubio 9/4
Ted Cruz 11/2 ...

Democratic Presidential Nomination

Hillary Clinton 1/5
Bernie Sanders 7/2
Joe Biden 14/1
Martin O'Malley 100/1

US Presidential Election 2016

Hillary Clinton 10/11
Donald Trump 3/1
Marco Rubio 6/1
Bernie Sanders 7/1
Ted Cruz 18/1 ...

Now,

Republican Presidential Nomination

Marco Rubio 5/6
Donald Trump 11/4
Ted Cruz 5/1 ...

Democratic Presidential Nomination

Hillary Clinton 1/5
Bernie Sanders 7/2
Joe Biden 18/1

US Presidential Election 2016

Hillary Clinton 5/6
Marco Rubio 11/4
Donald Trump 7/1
Bernie Sanders 8/1
Ted Cruz 12/1 ...

Note that Rubio's small success has slightly increased the GOP's odds of winning the general. A lot of rational Republicans, much like you are a rational Dem, will (accurately I think) see Rubio as having a much better chance of winning the general than either Cruz or Trump, and I'll bet Iowa helps his fundraising a lot. Who knows, even Nate Silver got Iowa GOP wrong in picking Trump.

[Vrede too]

Here's why Donald Trump suffered a stunning Iowa upset when the polls suggested he'd win

... As predicted, Trump performed best among voters with a high-school education or lower. But those voters represented only 16% of the electorate on Monday. Voters who had any education beyond high school — 84% of the electorate — mostly broke for Rubio and Cruz over Trump....

Voters were also pondering Trump's viability in the general election. Among the 20% of voters who chose a candidate based they thought could "win in November," Rubio was the top pick by 20 points....

[O Really]

I saw a good analysis earlier today too that showed pretty clearly that Trump took a down bump from skipping the last debate.

Of course Rubio should appear to the thinking Republican to be a better electable choice. He doesn't have much of a record to attack except for not showing up, and he doesn't drool and spit and say crazy stuff. Or at least he didn't until he joined the Iowa race. But I don't know that there are enough thinking Republicans left to get him nominated. Don't forget, you've got a lot of them out there who are convinced that the reason they haven't won in the past is because the candidates haven't been crazy enough.

[Vrede too]

Good advice, I should be careful not to underestimate the self-destructive stupidity of Republicans.

[Vrede too]

Whoa.

[O Really]

Wait til the general when all these nice things the Republican candidates have been saying about each other will get repackaged against whoever the nominee is.

[billy.pilgrim]

please let it be cruz

please, please please


not so sure why I worry the most about Rubio. it would be bush all over again - probably worse, but wouldn't a lot of repugs hold his heritage and his anchor baby status against him?

[Vrede too]

Rightwing Uncle Tomas Cubans are the good kind of Latinos. They seem more focused on his daring at one time, since reneged, to consider treating other Latinos like humans. Unforgivable.

[billy.pilgrim]

Rightwing Uncle Tomas Cubans are the good kind of Latinos. They seem more focused on his daring at one time, since reneged, to consider treating other Latinos like humans. Unforgivable.

but does the base - the tea baggers - do they know the difference

remember when the right thought the Latino voter would never vote for a black man. They were confusing the Miami crowd with everybody else

[Vrede too]

Trump vs. Clinton, Clinton +2.7
Trump vs. Sanders, Sanders +5.3

Cruz vs. Clinton, Cruz +1.3
Cruz vs. Sanders, Sanders +3.3

Rubio vs. Clinton, Rubio +2.5
Rubio vs. Sanders, Rubio +1.0

It sucks that 1/2 our country is so nutty that Cruz does that well vs. anyone.

[Vrede too]

... Were a certain number of supposed Trump fans joking all along? If so, good one. 3-way race now, but Trump may not survive being proved vulnerable. Will mean crazy GOP pick Cruz or slightly less mean crazy, establishment GOP pick Rubio?...

Donald Trump's poll numbers took a nosedive in the first national survey after Iowa

... Trump remained in first place in the survey, which was conducted by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling and was set to be released later Thursday. He received 25% of the vote from Republican-primary voters nationally. Cruz and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida tied for second at 21% apiece.

Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson grabbed 11%. None of the remaining Republican candidates received more than 5% of the vote.

It was a stark contrast from the national survey that Public Policy Polling released in mid-December. That poll found Trump, at 34%, maintaining a large national lead over both Cruz (18%) and Rubio (13%). Rubio seemed to benefit at Trump's expense with a stronger-than-expected showing in the Iowa caucuses, in which he nearly caught up to Trump. His poll standing was up 8 points from December....

The poll found the most support for Rubio in a theoretical three-man race for the nomination, with 34% picking the Florida senator compared with 33% for Trump and 25% for Cruz. He would also best Trump and Cruz in theoretical head-to-head bouts for the nomination. And his 64% favorability rating among Republican voters nationally trailed only Carson in that measure.

[Vrede too]

Jeb Bush begs town hall attendees to ‘please clap’

That's pitiful. Dang, I'm almost starting to feel sorry for Jeb, almost. His campaign is a lot like his cruel and futile efforts to keep completely brain-deteriorated Terri Schiavo "alive".

[rstrong]

"An attack on one faith is an attack on all faiths... We have to reject a politics that seeks to manipulate prejudice or bias, and targets people because of religion."
- President Obama, visiting a Baltimore mosque

"Always pitting people against each other... Look at today: he gave a speech at a mosque... It's this constant pitting people against each other than I can't stand."
- Sen. Marco Rubio

Watching Marco Rubio is like watching a little kid who's been hanging around hoodlums and yobbos and is learning to swear so he can be "cool" like they are.

[Vrede too]

Roque Rocky De La Fuente is on the 3/15 NC Dem POTUS ballot. I've never heard of him. There would be something refreshingly honest about having a car salesman in the job. Who knows, if the Bernie - Hillary winner is clear, I may vote for him. There aren't many opportunities to vote for a Mexican for the American presidency.

Lots of Dem choices in the other races. Any opinions?

[rstrong]

Whelp. So much for Rubio.

[Vrede too]

Let's dispel with this fiction that Marco Rubio knows what he's doing. He has no clue what he's doing.