2016 Elections

[bannination]

Did you guy see Ted Cruz eat a boogie during the debates the other night?

What is going on with this election!?

Idiocracy -- the movie is finally an accurate description of America.

[Vrede too]

NC elections:

US Senate:
Deborah Ross has a good record and is the Dem establishment choice and likely nominee, but doesn't list issues on her crappy website.
Kevin Griffin is great on the issues, but has no relevant political experience.
I'm leaning towards Chris Rey, good resume and issues.

US House 11:
Rick Bryson has a lame website and doesn't even list credentials.
Tom Hill has a decent resume, is great on the issues and really lays into the incumbent, Mark Meadows. I'll probably vote for him.

Governor:
AG Roy Cooper will be the nominee, but he's a proud drug prohibitionist.
I like Ken Spaulding and will probably vote for him.

Lieutenant Governor:
Holly Jones has served the Asheville hippies for 14 years. I'm leaning towards her.
Ron Newton also look good.
Robert Wilson is a pro-growther and has an odd website.
Linda Coleman might be great, but there's not much to learn on her website.

Attorney General:
Josh Stein looks great.
Marcus Williams does, too, but I'm leaning towards Stein.

3 more races to look up and I'm planning on voting for the bond. Advice is welcome if any of you have differing thoughts.

[Vrede too]

(Super Tuesday) So, Drumpf seven, Cruz three, Marco one. Drumpf it will be now that Cruz won't bail anytime soon.

So, Cruz hangin' in there.

(Super Tuesday) Clinton six + barely MA, Bernie four. He's still in it, sorta. With most of the South now done, he might be more competitive. MA and Iowa are the only non-southern states Clinton has won, and those were both squeakers.

Clinton LA big, Bernie KS big and NE, the pattern holds.

Re the super delegates that are nearly all with Clinton: They naturally side with the leader early - party solidarity and the hope of favors and jobs. They can and usually do switch to the votes leader and have never made the difference at a convention.

It's a shame that there's such a divide between Dem blackish and white-ish states, I hope neither group ends up taking it personally. It's not like either candidate is stoking racial animosity.

[Vrede too]

Otoh, if Bernie pulls off the upset many Dem women will rightly feel aggrieved at being told to wait once again. Black men got the vote decades before white women did and now a qualified woman couldn't even beat a 74 year old socialist with unruly hair. I don't know how many women would stay home in Nov., nor how that number compares with the number of Dems and Republicans that will never vote for any woman.

May not matter, Hillary's national lead has grown to +9.6% since 2/27.

Meanwhile, Hillary's 2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination national RCP Average lead has shrunk to +5%. Surprisingly close, but it may grow again after some upcoming southern victories....

[O Really]

National poll averages mean nada. Dems allocate all states proportionately. If she totally kicks Bernie's butt in, for example, Louisiana, which she did, it more than makes up for losses in smaller states where she lost by a few. Bernie's done well to bring issues to the forefront that might have been ignored, and he's helped (maybe not intentionally) to hone Hillary's act. He should IMNVHO continue to be influential, but his chances of getting the nomination hang solely on whether Hillary goes to jail. Other polls show that at this point a large majority of Dems are sick and tired of the emails, don't care about them and see any criminal pursuit as Republican harassment. So it's jail or she'll win.

[Vrede too]

National poll averages mean nada....

True, but I don't think that trends are meaningless, and national poll averages somewhat translate into money.

I would still bet on Hillary, but I don't think charges - jail or other resolution would be years away - or a blistering report without charges are the only possible ways that she loses the nomination.

I wonder what pressure the FBI is getting from all sides re the timing of whatever it is they end up doing. If charges come after the convention and she's the nominee, the GOP wins. If the investigation is still open in Nov. and she's the nominee, the GOP is helped but who knows by how much.

[rstrong]

Slate: Ben Carson Was a Terrible Candidate Who Raised a Ton of Money and Did Nothing With It

Carson burned through roughly $54 million as of the end of January, nearly $13 million more than Cruz did and roughly the same amount as Rubio and Trump spent combined.

There's an interesting point about his donor lists:

Carson’s lists, meanwhile, are considered even more valuable on a per-donor basis than typical ones because so many of his backers were first-time donors, making them less likely to be on all those other lists already available for rent. By one estimate given to CPI, the Carson campaign could bring in upwards of $4 million over the next three years as a result. Not bad for 10 months of work.

As pointed out earlier:

Remember Stephen Colbert in 2012, demonstrating how SuperPAC money could be transferred to the SuperPAC owners' own bank accounts, tax-free? Remember Sarah Palin touring America in a campaign bus, raising $millions for her SuperPAC, and then not running?

ThinkProgress: As Ben Carson’s Campaign Tanked, Top Advisors Reaped Millions

Carson’s newly disclosed fourth quarter spending shows huge payments to companies controlled by his current and former advisors.
[...]
The campaign also paid more than $2.3 million to InfoCision, a controversial company that has previously raised money for political action committees that spent the bulk of their money on overhead only.

The real effect of Citizens United is fake political campaigns. "Candidates" running not to win, but to raise money.

Carson has a new job: National chairman of My Faith Votes, an organization focused on getting Christian Americans to the polls.

“Nothing is more important to me than my personal faith, and it is my faith that motivated me to be involved in the political process to begin with,” Carson said in the same statement. “I believe Christians in this country can easily determine the next president of the United States and all other national and local leaders, should they simply show up at the polls. When we do vote, We The People will once again solidify our commitment to the Judeo-Christian values upon which our nation was founded.”

The TV evangelists are going to get some serious competition looting seniors' savings.

[Vrede too]

Thinking specifically of you I posted to another forum, "A lot of people were saying from the start that this was all about setting him up to make money. After all, no one sane ever believed that GOP voters would nominate a black."

Btw, Jeb and his shadow PACs raised a ton of money that wasn't spent, where or to who will it go?

[rstrong]

Btw, Jeb and his shadow PACs raised a ton of money that wasn't spent, where or to who will it go?

A token amount will go to Congressional candidates in this election and in 2018. Probably about the same amount they'll take in selling their donor lists.

Most will go to themselves. With a small amount held in reserve to get fundraising off the ground for Jeb! 2020.

[Vrede too]

NC elections:

... 3 more races to look up and I'm planning on voting for the bond. Advice is welcome if any of you have differing thoughts.

NC Commissioner of Labor:
Charles Meeker looks okay, though his website is a little light on detail.
Mazie Ferguson looks great, a lifelong progressive activist!

Superintendent of Public Instruction:
Henry Pankey. Finally, a "Testimonials" page, which is a mix of past commendations and current endorsements. It's the first endorsement page of any sort that I've seen. Are they less in favor these days? I often rely on others' opinions when I haven't done the research. He looks great.
Incumbent June Atkinson has the scantest website ever. However, I applaud her for outing a GOP incumbent and surviving the Raleigh wingnuts, and I can't find Pankey's reasons for dumping her. I'm leaning towards her.

Treasurer, not that the choice makes a huge difference:
Dan Blue III comes from corporate healthcare, yuck.
Ron Elmer has a better resume and more detailed plans. I'm leaning towards him.

Okay, tired of researching. Unless I hear different from y'all or elsewhere I'll send in my ballot with the above picks in a few days.

[GoCubsGo]

Coupla socialists....

[Vrede too]

Wow, Bush accurately cited our labor problem (with an aging population) and Reagan predicted the ugly future.

With the fall of communism the GOP decided it needed different people to fear and hate.

[Vrede too]

... (Super Tuesday) Clinton six + barely MA, Bernie four. He's still in it, sorta. With most of the South now done, he might be more competitive. MA and Iowa are the only non-southern states Clinton has won, and those were both squeakers.

Clinton LA big, Bernie KS big and NE, the pattern holds....

Bernie Sanders just won Maine by a 29-point margin

... Sanders's big test is coming in Michigan on Tuesday ...

[Vrede too]

Delegate selection rules

... Since the 2012 Democratic primaries, the number of pledged delegates allocated to each of the 50 U.S. states and Washington, D.C. is based on two main factors: (1) the proportion of votes each state gave to the Democratic candidate in the last three presidential elections, and (2) the number of electoral votes each state has in the United States Electoral College. States who schedule their primary or caucus later in the primary season may also get additional bonus delegates....

I didn't know. I thought it was just #2 and was going to gripe because that gives inordinate weight to con-heavy states, but that's balanced by #1.

[JTA]

Bernie Sanders party foul:

"When you're white, you don't know what it's like to be living in a ghetto. You don't know what it's like to be poor".

I get what he's probably trying to say. I just think he pulled it off very poorly.

[rstrong]

Bernie Sanders party foul:

"When you're white, you don't know what it's like to be living in a ghetto. You don't know what it's like to be poor".

I get what he's probably trying to say. I just think he pulled it off very poorly.

Yup.

There's a lot of modern-day truth to the ghetto statement. But it's worth mentioning that the original ghetto - where the word comes from - was for whites. For Jews, in Venice. The same goes for ghettos in Warsaw and elsewhere.

The "You don't know what it's like to be poor" claim on the other hand is no more accurate and no less racist than other broad generalizations about any race.

[JTA]

I don't like race politics for this reason. He could've worded it in such a manner where it doesn't disparage an entire group of people just to gain the confidence of another. It's the same divisiveness that Trump's been Trumpeting (hehe), just aimed at a different group.

[Vrede too]

I think y'all have it backwards. What he said is correct about almost all white Americans. One can be dirt poor here and still not know what it's like to be black and living in a ghetto. I sure don't, and I've both been poor and worked in a largely black ghetto ER and largely Latino migrant farmworker clinic. In fact, as knee-jerk resistant as I am to abusive authority, if the only thing different about me was that I was black, I would almost certainly be in jail if not dead.

Rather, Bernie's getting more credible heat for the implied stereotyping of black people. Plus, the full context of his statement matters.

Bernie Sanders: White People Don't Know What It's Like To Live In The 'Ghetto'
Sanders' comments were in response to a question about his racial blind spots.

... Sanders told a moving story about how, as a newly elected congressman in Washington, D.C., about 20 years ago, he was shocked to learn that a fellow congressman, who was black, avoided taking cabs because it was humiliating when drivers would go past him because of his race.

He also said he was humbled when a young woman active in the Black Lives Matter movement came up and told him that he simply doesn't understand what police do in many black communities on a regular basis, beyond the shootings that tend to get more attention.

"You don't understand the degree to which we are terrorized. ... I'm just talking about everyday activities where police officers are bullying people," Sanders recounted the woman telling him.

"When you're white, you don't know what it's like to be living in a ghetto," Sanders concluded. "You don't know what it's like to be poor. You don't know what it's like to be hassled when you walk down the street or you get dragged out of a car. And I believe that as a nation in the year 2016, we must be firm in making it clear, we will end institutional racism and reform a broken criminal justice system."

Sanders' answer immediately generated some criticism -- and confusion -- on social media for the implication that the "ghetto" is exclusively where black people live -- or that all black people understand what it's like to live in a low-income area....

Hillary said essentially the same thing, but probably with better wording:

... In response to the question about racial blind spots Sunday night, Clinton acknowledged that as a white person in America, she knows she has never had some of the experiences many people in the audience have had.

"I think it's incumbent upon me -- and what I have been trying to talk about during this campaign -- is to urge white people to think about what it is like to have the talk with your kids, scared that your sons or daughters even could get in trouble for no good reason whatsoever, like Sandra Bland, and end up dead in a jail in Texas," she said.

Only white people and wealthy nonwhites ever say that they "don't like race politics". Race politics is America as much a tax or military policy are, and denial doesn't make that go away. The debate was in Flint, a mostly black community ravaged by trade and industrial policy, the racist drug war, economic abandonment and now two years of miserly (I almost posted 'skinflint' ) white GOP poisoning of thousands of kids and 2 years of lies and inaction about it, just as most environmental injustices hit black and brown people harder here.

[JTA]

I think y'all have it backwards. What he said is correct about almost all white Americans. One can be dirt poor here and still not know what it's like to be black and living in a ghetto. I sure don't, and I've both been poor and worked in a largely black ghetto ER and largely Latino migrant farmworker clinic. In fact, as knee-jerk resistant as I am to abusive authority, if the only thing different about me was that I was black, I would almost certainly be in jail if not dead.

Rather, Bernie's getting more credible heat for the implied stereotyping of black people. Plus, the full context of his statement matters.

Bernie Sanders: White People Don't Know What It's Like To Live In The 'Ghetto'
Sanders' comments were in response to a question about his racial blind spots.

... Sanders told a moving story about how, as a newly elected congressman in Washington, D.C., about 20 years ago, he was shocked to learn that a fellow congressman, who was black, avoided taking cabs because it was humiliating when drivers would go past him because of his race.

He also said he was humbled when a young woman active in the Black Lives Matter movement came up and told him that he simply doesn't understand what police do in many black communities on a regular basis, beyond the shootings that tend to get more attention.

"You don't understand the degree to which we are terrorized. ... I'm just talking about everyday activities where police officers are bullying people," Sanders recounted the woman telling him.

"When you're white, you don't know what it's like to be living in a ghetto," Sanders concluded. "You don't know what it's like to be poor. You don't know what it's like to be hassled when you walk down the street or you get dragged out of a car. And I believe that as a nation in the year 2016, we must be firm in making it clear, we will end institutional racism and reform a broken criminal justice system."

Sanders' answer immediately generated some criticism -- and confusion -- on social media for the implication that the "ghetto" is exclusively where black people live -- or that all black people understand what it's like to live in a low-income area....

Hillary said essentially the same thing, but probably with better wording:

... In response to the question about racial blind spots Sunday night, Clinton acknowledged that as a white person in America, she knows she has never had some of the experiences many people in the audience have had.

"I think it's incumbent upon me -- and what I have been trying to talk about during this campaign -- is to urge white people to think about what it is like to have the talk with your kids, scared that your sons or daughters even could get in trouble for no good reason whatsoever, like Sandra Bland, and end up dead in a jail in Texas," she said.

Only white people and wealthy nonwhites ever say that they "don't like race politics". Race politics is America as much a tax or military policy are, and denial doesn't make that go away. The debate was in Flint, a mostly black community ravaged by trade and industrial policy, the racist drug war, economic abandonment and now two years of miserly (I almost posted 'skinflint' ) white GOP poisoning of thousands of kids and 2 years of lies and inaction about it, just as most environmental injustices hit black and brown people harder here.

I may have Bernie Sanders'd that up. When I say I don't like race politics I mean I don't like the the divisive route that some take. I don't like when someone talks smack or alienates one group to gain brownie points with another. Now, certainly there are political issues that involve race that warrant discussion, like ghetto people being hassled by the man, but it shouldn't involve trying to cause further divisions. Instead we ought to try to opt for unity and other hippy stuff.

[Vrede too]

Other than, "When you're white, you don't know what it's like to be ... poor," which I think and hope was just a semantic flub, I don't think Bernie gave reason for white Americans to be offended. Whites need to hear more truths like this, and then to act on them. If anyone had found the perfect way to go about that we wouldn't still be having this discussion.

Somewhat related: I've just backed away from, not quit, a group that started running trainings exclusively by and for people of color. My attitude is that if that's what they think they need to do, fine, PoC can use all the help they can get here. However, I can't stay as enthusiastic about a group where I've become a sometimes automatically excluded, partial member.