What I plan to do [did] today other than this.

[Tertius]

Since the last argument free discussion I tried to start failed with the first post, I'll try this.

[Tertius]

O'Charey's for lunch then to the range.

[AntiAlias]

O'Charey's for lunch then to the range.

I like their potato soup.

[billy.pilgrim]

I plan to vote again. Love that early voting.

[blackfoot]

I plan to vote again. Love that early voting.

Which religion are you voting for...Mormon/Catholic...or Islam/Catholic? Must be hard not to have an Atheist in the mix, huh..?

[billy.pilgrim]

I plan to vote again. Love that early voting.

Which religion are you voting for...Mormon/Catholic...or Islam/Catholic? Must be hard not to have an Atheist in the mix, huh..?

shoot blackie, I didn't realize that you could vote for a religion

fsm

[neoplacebo]

My plan of the day (an old navy term) is to go to work, stop and get (free) Obamagas on the way home, watch the "mainstream media" interpretation of the days events on the evening news (ABC, the American Broadcasting Network) and after that engage in a little misdemeanor crime and possibly some drunken revelry. Thanks.

[blackfoot]

shoot blackie, I didn't realize that you could vote for a religion

Oh yeah. But you have to be old enough to vote, or mentally capable enough...ut..oh...

[billy.pilgrim]

shoot blackie, I didn't realize that you could vote for a religion

Oh yeah. But you have to be old enough to vote, or mentally capable enough...ut..oh...

so, this religion of yours excludes children and the mentally challenged. sounds pretty rough to me, I think I'll stick with mine, we have more inclusive principles

[Bungalow Bill]

I'm probably going to get my Obama-provided BMW, stop and fill up at my Obama-provided
gas station and take a little drive up the BRP before it's too late. What a great country we
have the privilege to live in.

[Tertius]

Since the last argument free discussion I tried to start failed with the first post, I'll try this.

Which one are you talking about?

There's this: Electoral College Vote Predictions

Pretty tame, though we are still waiting for you to play your own game, and for Reality to get someone to explain your rules to him.

I have my list. It is a work in progress. I figured people would give it some thought. Anyone can post a link but those are the ideas of others not us.

[billy.pilgrim]

Since the last argument free discussion I tried to start failed with the first post, I'll try this.

Which one are you talking about?

There's this: Electoral College Vote Predictions

Pretty tame, though we are still waiting for you to play your own game, and for Reality to get someone to explain your rules to him.

I have my list. It is a work in progress. I figured people would give it some thought. Anyone can post a link but those are the ideas of others not us.

I've voted twice today. didn't realize it was so easy

[O Really]

I figured people would give it some thought. Anyone can post a link but those are the ideas of others not us.

I disagree. I've won my office March Madness pool three years out of five and I didn't do it by guessing winners. I did it by studying the projections of people who do that stuff for a living, and who use thousands of computer projections and simulations, yada. The main reason people lose at pools like that is that they start pulling for the home team, hoping for an upset. Or not choosing Duke because they don't like them. Of course, sometimes upsets happen. That's why I didn't win all five.

But the analyst I chose to agree with is Nate Silver. Personally, he's a Dem, but he doesn't get paid to work for them, he gets paid to be right. And ever since he went into political analysis from baseball analysis, he's been right more often than anybody else. My question for you is, what could I do to make a better guess than Silvers" Even Thorny went with Silver except for noting (correctly) that Virginia and Colorado were VERY close and he hoped Romney could take them both.

[Tertius]

Since the last argument free discussion I tried to start failed with the first post, I'll try this.

Which one are you talking about?

There's this: Electoral College Vote Predictions

Pretty tame, though we are still waiting for you to play your own game, and for Reality to get someone to explain your rules to him.

I have my list. It is a work in progress.

You asked us to play now, but you won't play until you have later info. Figures, cheating at your own game.

I figured people would give it some thought.

I did. I think some people know more about it than me. I chose which one to go with.

So far, O Really, Det.Thorn and I are the only ones bold enough to do so.

Anyone can post a link but those are the ideas of others not us.

Post your predictions today, not when you've gained an advantage by having later data.

Don't be stupid. I did not say when to post your picks. I just thought I would put the topic out there so as individuals wanted to they could post.

On every topic you must be contentious. You have a bigger problem than just being liberal.

[Tertius]

I figured people would give it some thought. Anyone can post a link but those are the ideas of others not us.

I disagree. I've won my office March Madness pool three years out of five and I didn't do it by guessing winners. I did it by studying the projections of people who do that stuff for a living, and who use thousands of computer projections and simulations, yada. The main reason people lose at pools like that is that they start pulling for the home team, hoping for an upset. Or not choosing Duke because they don't like them. Of course, sometimes upsets happen. That's why I didn't win all five.

But the analyst I chose to agree with is Nate Silver. Personally, he's a Dem, but he doesn't get paid to work for them, he gets paid to be right. And ever since he went into political analysis from baseball analysis, he's been right more often than anybody else. My question for you is, what could I do to make a better guess than Silvers" Even Thorny went with Silver except for noting (correctly) that Virginia and Colorado were VERY close and he hoped Romney could take them both.

You are correct. But most pools are won by the individual found one or two exception to the experts predictions.

My guess this election will be that way. There is going to be one state or two that no one sees coming.

[O Really]

You are correct. But most pools are won by the individual found one or two exception to the experts predictions.

My guess this election will be that way. There is going to be one state or two that no one sees coming.

I continue to disagree. Sure, some pools are won because of a fluke, guessed correctly. But in any instance, the best bet is the most likely. Elections are similar, but not identical, to the pools. If Nate Silver says Virginia is a 52% chance for Obama, I recognize that it doesn't take much of a change or a fluke for Romney to win. But the better bet is still with the 52%. Now if I had information that Silver didn't have ... using the pool analogy, my brother was playing for one of the top teams and I knew he was injured but most people did not... then it might be reasonable to second-guess him. In the absence of such additional information, the best guess is to go with the expert. Unless you just want to wear the rose glasses, as a large number of people do in every election.

[Tertius]

You are correct. But most pools are won by the individual found one or two exception to the experts predictions.

My guess this election will be that way. There is going to be one state or two that no one sees coming.

I continue to disagree. Sure, some pools are won because of a fluke, guessed correctly. But in any instance, the best bet is the most likely. Elections are similar, but not identical, to the pools. If Nate Silver says Virginia is a 52% chance for Obama, I recognize that it doesn't take much of a change or a fluke for Romney to win. But the better bet is still with the 52%. Now if I had information that Silver didn't have ... using the pool analogy, my brother was playing for one of the top teams and I knew he was injured but most people did not... then it might be reasonable to second-guess him. In the absence of such additional information, the best guess is to go with the expert. Unless you just want to wear the rose glasses, as a large number of people do in every election.

I agree it is always best to play the odds. And there are different ways pools are run but the pools I have been in several people picked the winner. Some even the final four. But when points are accumulated on every round it has been the guy that picked the team that won two or three games they should not have won that put the winner over the top. We had more than a hundred people play and the IT had to keep up with it all. Accounting held the money. Last I heard the new director of manufacturing put a stop to it.

Now you have won and I never have so clearly your system is better.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketb ... s-field-68

Since the tournament field expanded in 1985, 108 regionals have been played. In only 14 of those 108 regions (13 percent) have the top four seeds advanced to the Sweet 16 (none in the past two years).

While No. 1s have 18 of those 33 titles, you might be surprised to know that No. 1 seeds have met in the championship game just six times since seeding began in 1979 (1982, 1993, 1999, 2005, 2007, 2008).

In this case, we're talking about the polls, not the seed. Since seeding began in 1979, only 13 of 33 tournaments have been won by a team that was ranked No. 1 during the season.


As far as the election goes and since we don't have a money pool, most of us will pich with rosé colored glasses.

[Colonel Taylor]

O'Charey's for lunch then to the range.

Where do you shoot?

[Tertius]

O'Charey's for lunch then to the range.

Where do you shoot?

I prefer to go to the rifle range when the weather is good. I usually take there guns but generally only shoot two. Most often I take 308 Ruger Gunsite Scout with a 20" eye relief scope; Savage Arms AR-15 with Holographic sight with no magnification; Marlin leaver action 30-30 with scope. I also have a Remington .22 and a Browning .22. Mostly I only get then out when the grandchildren are coming.

I have a 9mm, 380, .22, 32 and 38 hand guns. The 38 is a lemon squeezer not a 38 special it was my grandmother's when she was a county jailer. I go to the Inman range to shoot them.

I have been known to travel as far as Charleston just to shoot with someone if they ask.

I am looking to buy a rifle for long shots say 600 to 1000 yards. I don't need it and don't know where I would get to use it. I am also looking to pick up a Mosin Nagant for the history. I want a USSR sniper version. But the going price is $700. The price for a general issue is $130. The difference is an expensive self .

[JTA]

I plan to vote again. Love that early voting.

Which religion are you voting for...Mormon/Catholic...or Islam/Catholic? Must be hard not to have an Atheist in the mix, huh..?

shoot blackie, I didn't realize that you could vote for a religion

fsm

Mormonism, hands down.

I haven't bought new underwear in years. I've come to the conclusion they must be magic. This is a sign from the Mormon God.