2020 Elections

[neoplacebo]

Slate:
"Biden has used the line before and Reuters reported that he’s said it’s a reference to the 1953 John Wayne movie “Hondo.” A search of the script revealed a few references to pony soldiers and lying, but not together nor with the dog-faced portion.

Some on social media suggested Biden may have been referencing “Pony Soldier,” a 1952 film that starred Tyrone Power and not John Wayne. However, according to Slate, the line as Biden used it never appeared in that film either."

Welcome to the neoplacebo psychiatry and fortune telling emporium; this is obviously some manifestation of a dream from Joe's childhood; when those movies came out, Joe was ten or eleven years old. Both made a mighty impression on him, but what has stuck in his mind all these years is the old man next door who actually did resemble a bulldog in the face and once scolded Joe for damaging his fence by telling Joe he better "pony up" and fix it. This was shortly after the bulldog neighbor confronted Joe over the fence, Joe lied to him and said he didn't touch the fence, and the old man called him a liar. That'll be seventy five bucks. I will send the bill.

[Vrede too]

Vulnerable Democrats fret over surging Sanders

Hey, spineless Dems, you had the option of supporting Liz! as being more palatable than Bernie!, but instead you put all of your eggs in the uber-flawed Biden basket. Now, it may be too late for Liz! If Bernie! wins or if he loses in Nov because of your lackluster support, we will remember.

[neoplacebo]

I think Biden should just hang it up. I'm starting to think Bloomberg is the one who's gonna make the nut. I figure Bernie and Warren may be too extreme to get elected but I'll vote for Tiny Tim over trump. Even though he's dead.

[Vrede too]

... If there was any doubt, he just lost NH, maybe dropping to single digits and 5th, and maybe sinking his entire campaign. This feels to me like a 'Howard Dean scream' moment. If so, 45SHOLE will take a victory lap, but shit like this makes me wonder if Joe was ever the most likely to beat him.

Okay, the white rural-ish focus groups have weighed in. 79% of precincts reporting and Mayor Pete keeps creeping closer to Bernie! He may yet "win", barely.

Too bad about Liz! Anyone have insight on why progressives settled on Bernie! rather than her?

Younger Blacks and Latinos like Bernie! What now for older Blacks and Latinos? Biden was sinking fast with them even before tonight. Fair or not, there are some specific grievances that Blacks have against Mayor Pete and Klobuchar, but I'm unaware of any with Bernie! Will older Blacks follow their youth or make different choices? Idk about Latino thinking.

What effect will Bloomberg have? Seems to me he'll take votes from everyone besides Bernie, but I don't know how many. Blacks and Latinos have good reason to distrust him.

Leaving aside Bloomberg, who's pretty much a wildcard at this point, what are the arguments for a moderate voter in choosing between Mayor Pete and Klobuchar?

… “I admired Senator Sanders when I was a high school student, I respect him greatly to this day, and I congratulate him on his strong showing tonight," Buttigieg said.

Other things he thought were neat when he was a high school student: flip phones, dialup internet, The Matrix, Ally McBeal, Big Mouth Billy Bass, Shakira and JLo . . . well, maybe those last two don't make my point, but you get the drift - Bernie! is OLD!

[Vrede too]

... Younger Blacks and Latinos like Bernie! What now for older Blacks and Latinos? Biden was sinking fast with them even before tonight. Fair or not, there are some specific grievances that Blacks have against Mayor Pete and Klobuchar, but I'm unaware of any with Bernie! Will older Blacks follow their youth or make different choices? Idk about Latino thinking....

TV news: Bernie! now leads the Dems nationally among nonwhites.

[neoplacebo]

One of my US Senators single handedly prevented two election security bills from advancing. This pissed me off and I proceeded to send Marsha an explicit message about it. More than once I asked "what the fuck is wrong with you?" And more than once I asked "how does it feel to be a prostitute for trump?" This crazy bitch is rapidly reaching my tolerance limit for bullshit and stupidity. I hope she dies and goes to hell; tonight.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/senate-repub ... 24288.html

[O Really]

Are they selling Marsha voodoo dolls yet? I would envision one in a ho-type outfit. Sometimes sold with an accompanying voodoo of Trump and her face fits up his ass. If you see one, I'll buy it and help you stick poison pins in it - or in them both.

[neoplacebo]

Are they selling Marsha voodoo dolls yet? I would envision one in a ho-type outfit. Sometimes sold with an accompanying voodoo of Trump and her face fits up his ass. If you see one, I'll buy it and help you stick poison pins in it - or in them both.

Ah, if they do I will certainly get one or maybe a dozen. After I read that story about this I was like the frantic clear the decks keyboard cat; couldn't help myself. I was out of control. Got a beer and started typing furiously, so furiously I had to backspace and correct my spelling several times. She makes me crazy.

[Whack9]

Mike Bloomberg's been buying ads all over the place. I haven't seen any myself until today. I follow a few meme accounts on Instagram and noticed sponsored Bloomberg posts for the first time. He really is trying to buy the presidency.

[neoplacebo]

Mike Bloomberg's been buying ads all over the place. I haven't seen any myself until today. I follow a few meme accounts on Instagram and noticed sponsored Bloomberg posts for the first time. He really is trying to buy the presidency.

I would rather one person buy it than some corporate entity or combination of same. Face it;' public office is and has been for a long time, been bought and paid for by special interests of the corporate flavor. With one person to focus on for blame, things will reflect a lot more clarity.

[Whack9]

Mike Bloomberg's been buying ads all over the place. I haven't seen any myself until today. I follow a few meme accounts on Instagram and noticed sponsored Bloomberg posts for the first time. He really is trying to buy the presidency.

I would rather one person buy it than some corporate entity or combination of same. Face it;' public office is and has been for a long time, been bought and paid for by special interests of the corporate flavor. With one person to focus on for blame, things will reflect a lot more clarity.

Truth.

Bloomberg popping up everywhere in media like a digital coronovirus shows you how far money goes in buying influence. I was reading an article detailing how a bunch of people lean towards Bloomberg because of his overwhelming visibility in media. When people that don't keep up with politics see his name everywhere, he becomes the most familiar candidate to them. Looks like his poll numbers are rising as well.

[Whack9]

Got my absentee ballot for the primary. It's in xdp format. What a pain in the ass. I'm using a Mac (obligatory fuck Apple/Macs. Overpriced, money making scheme) and cannot figure out how to open this doc. Looks like it's a proprietary Adobe format. Why make things a pain in the ass? Why not a PDF?

[neoplacebo]

Got my absentee ballot for the primary. It's in xdp format. What a pain in the ass. I'm using a Mac (obligatory fuck Apple/Macs. Overpriced, money making scheme) and cannot figure out how to open this doc. Looks like it's a proprietary Adobe format. Why make things a pain in the ass? Why not a PDF?

I would urge you to register in SC NOW before it's too late to vote in November. I am assuming you're still voting in NJ. They may have already taken you off the rolls; it didn't take NC long at all to purge me after I left and moved to TN.

[Vrede too]

Got my absentee ballot for the primary. It's in xdp format. What a pain in the ass. I'm using a Mac (obligatory fuck Apple/Macs. Overpriced, money making scheme) and cannot figure out how to open this doc. Looks like it's a proprietary Adobe format. Why make things a pain in the ass? Why not a PDF?

There's still plenty of time to request, receive and return a hard copy absentee ballot via snail mail for the 2/29 SC primary. It won't make a difference that you already got the online version. They care that you only vote once, not how many ballots you have. Then, only after you're sure that your vote has been counted, ask neoplacebo to draft a scathing note for you about the xdp ballot.

[Vrede too]

... Too bad about Liz! Anyone have insight on why progressives settled on Bernie! rather than her? ...

One writer's opinion. I don't necessarily agree or feel that it's fair reason for her fall, but I can't dispute the argument, either.

Why Elizabeth Warren is cratering

backtracked on Medicare for all
pandering to both the center and the left
accepted and even sought large donations as a senator, leading to charges of hypocrisy.
characterized the economy in gloomy terms that just don’t ring true to a lot of voters

I would rather one person buy it than some corporate entity or combination of same. Face it;' public office is and has been for a long time, been bought and paid for by special interests of the corporate flavor. With one person to focus on for blame, things will reflect a lot more clarity.

Truth.

Bloomberg popping up everywhere in media like a digital coronovirus shows you how far money goes in buying influence. I was reading an article detailing how a bunch of people lean towards Bloomberg because of his overwhelming visibility in media. When people that don't keep up with politics see his name everywhere, he becomes the most familiar candidate to them. Looks like his poll numbers are rising as well.

No way will I support Bloomberg or any billionaire in the primaries, but I'm not freaked out by the prospect. The way I see it:

Pluses

The money to win;
Superior business success to 45SHOLE;
The best credentials for what is mostly a managerial job;
Decent platform, including years of gun control advocacy;
A generally successful mayoral career.

Minuses

A fourth ancient (78) White, would be 86! at the end of a 2nd term;
Buying the presidency = reduced accountability;
Uncertain whether he can unite Dems. Minorities and progressives may stay home;
Some well intentioned PR flubs like Big Gulpgate;
Another NYC POTUS? With Hillary that would be 3/3 nominees in 2 elections.

What would y'all add to these lists, and might any of you vote for him in your primary?

[Whack9]

Got my absentee ballot for the primary. It's in xdp format. What a pain in the ass. I'm using a Mac (obligatory fuck Apple/Macs. Overpriced, money making scheme) and cannot figure out how to open this doc. Looks like it's a proprietary Adobe format. Why make things a pain in the ass? Why not a PDF?

I would urge you to register in SC NOW before it's too late to vote in November. I am assuming you're still voting in NJ. They may have already taken you off the rolls; it didn't take NC long at all to purge me after I left and moved to TN.

I'm registered here in SC, been a resident for 15 years (has it really been that long already?). I've got my application printed and filled out. Gonna go turn it in in person tomorrow and get my absentee ballot!

[O Really]

...
Uncertain whether he can unite Dems. Minorities and progressives may stay home;
...

That's possible, of course, but anybody stupid enough to do that probably shouldn't have a vote anyway, and deserves another 4 years of Trump.

I like Bloomberg. He's close to the good side on most issues, has a competent work history including his NYC mayorship, and since he's been in the public eye for a long time with no significant skeletons, I'd say he carries little baggage. Some may resent his wealth or his slight NYC speech pattern, but there's not much to generate a Hillary-hate.

As to "buying the election"

"The candidate who spends the most money usually wins
How strong is the association between campaign spending and political success? For House seats, more than 90 percent of candidates who spend the most win. From 2000 through 2016, there was only one election cycle where that wasn’t true: 2010. “In that election, 86 percent of the top spenders won,” said Sheila Krumholz, executive director of the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan research group that tracks campaign fundraising and spending."

It's not entirely that simple, but still true. Interesting analysis here:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/mo ... ove-story/

[Vrede too]

I'm registered here in SC, been a resident for 15 years (has it really been that long already?). I've got my application printed and filled out. Gonna go turn it in in person tomorrow and get my absentee ballot!

If you're going there in person, anyhow, and not using snail mail, which has always worked fine for me, why not just early vote?
https://www.greenvillecounty.org/VoterR ... demPPP.pdf

In-person Voting Hours for the Democratic Presidential Preference Primary
Beginning January 30, 2020 – Through February 28, 2020
Monday – Friday 8:30 a.m. – 5:00 p.m.
Extended Hours: Saturday, February 22nd 9:00a.m. - 1:00p.m., Thursday, February 27th 8:30a.m. - 7:00 p.m.

[Vrede too]

No way will I support Bloomberg or any billionaire in the primaries, but I'm not freaked out by the prospect. The way I see it:

Pluses

The money to win;
Superior business success to 45SHOLE;
The best credentials for what is mostly a managerial job;
Decent platform, including years of gun control advocacy;
A generally successful mayoral career.

Minuses

A fourth ancient (78) White, would be 86! at the end of a 2nd term;
Buying the presidency = reduced accountability;
Uncertain whether he can unite Dems. Minorities and progressives may stay home;
Some well intentioned PR flubs like Big Gulpgate;
Another NYC POTUS? With Hillary that would be 3/3 nominees in 2 elections.

What would y'all add to these lists, and might any of you vote for him in your primary?

...
Uncertain whether he can unite Dems. Minorities and progressives may stay home;
...

That's possible, of course, but anybody stupid enough to do that probably shouldn't have a vote anyway, and deserves another 4 years of Trump.

That's an understandable moral stance, but maybe not a winning electoral strategy, for you as well as them.

I like Bloomberg. He's close to the good side on most issues, has a competent work history including his NYC mayorship, and since he's been in the public eye for a long time with no significant skeletons, I'd say he carries little baggage. Some may resent his wealth or his slight NYC speech pattern, but there's not much to generate a Hillary-hate.

No argument here, good additions to the "Pluses" list.

As to "buying the election"

"The candidate who spends the most money usually wins
How strong is the association between campaign spending and political success? For House seats, more than 90 percent of candidates who spend the most win. From 2000 through 2016, there was only one election cycle where that wasn’t true: 2010. “In that election, 86 percent of the top spenders won,” said Sheila Krumholz, executive director of the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan research group that tracks campaign fundraising and spending."

It's not entirely that simple, but still true. Interesting analysis here:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/mo ... ove-story/

My point was about the "reduced accountability" of self-financing, not a denial of the extreme and undemocratic importance of money.

Does this mean that you're thinking of voting for him?

[O Really]

That's an understandable moral stance, but maybe not a winning electoral strategy, for you as well as them.
...
My point was about the "reduced accountability" of self-financing, not a denial of the extreme and undemocratic importance of money.
...
Does this mean that you're thinking of voting for him?

I don't think any stance that would aid or lead to another Trump term could be considered "moral." Jump the Godwin Rule shark and for sake of analagy substitute "Hitler" for "Trump". Could helping to keep Hitler in power be considered moral?

Well, you can't have it both ways on the financing - a candidate who accepts donations incurs some obligation to those who donate - the candidate who self-finances "has no accountability." The candidate who cannot self-fund nor accepts contributions loses.

Sure, I'd vote for Bloomberg. Probably first choice at this point. When you look at RealClearPolitics, in every battleground state, Biden beats Trump in every poll. But assuming Biden's biting the big one and is effectively out. RCP polls show that in almost all polls, Bernie will beat Trump; and in some, maybe half, Warren win. Pete doesn't. Maybe one or two polls in a couple of states. Klobuchar didn't have enough support to be included in the polls, apparently. So if Biden has tanked, and Warren is headed the same way, we're left with Bernie, Pete, and Amy.
My heart can't stand the excitement.