2020 Elections

[Vrede too]

California Democratic Primary Polls Average
416 Delegates!

Sanders 35%
Biden 23%
Warren 16%
Bloomberg 14%

Perhaps the most excitement will be over whether Warren and Bloomberg get the 15% needed to win any delegates at all.

[Vrede too]

I guess it's a different mindset, but I just can't see spending time going to the polls, maybe waiting in line to vote for somebody who not only has no chance to win, but who also has no chance to make any other impact. Of course, I may have mailed in a vote for just such person, but time will tell.

Perhaps you (or I) did in the long run, but looks like you'll be counted in a couple of weeks.

Florida Democratic Presidential Primary Poll
March 17 (a lot can change)
219 Delegates!

Biden 34%
Bloomberg 25%
Sanders 13%

Bernie may not get any Florida delegates .

The more Democratic voters have gotten to know Mike Bloomberg, the less they like him

... On January 29, about 30% of Democratic voters said they would be unsatisfied with the former New York City mayor as the nominee. By February 27, that number was up to 49%....

Ouch.

North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary Polls
110 Delegates

Biden 36.7%
Sanders 23.3%
Bloomberg 14.3%, oooh so close to the cutoff.
Warren 10.7%

[Vrede too]

viewtopic.php?p=111002#p111002

CA-50 has been Repug since the 2002 election, even after Duke Cunningham was imprisoned for 8 years, and reelecting Duncan Hunter after he was indicted by a federal grand jury for misusing campaign funds.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Californi ... ns_results

Corruption, ie trumpiness, is a virtue there. Maybe you should continue voting in Florida.

Wouldn't matter, 50 isn't my district anyway. We just have to put up with the incessant TV ads each accusing the other of "betraying Trump" or some such idiocy. Fortunately, there's a mute button and ad-snipping DVR.

Mike Levin.

This is a prime reason why we may never see meaningful campaign finance reform - most of those truckloads of filthy cash go to TV, including the "liberal" networks.

The Michael Bloomberg Effect: Super Tuesday’s Big Winners Are TV Stations

[Vrede too]

Not counting Tulsi and other irrelevancies, 70 year-old Liz! is the youngest remaining candidate. She is the JFK, Bill Clinton or Obama of her time . We need the fresh ideas of her youthfulness.

The Libertarians have 16! candidates on the NC POTUS ballot, and "No Preference" is kicking all of their asses, but few precincts have been counted.
https://data.citizen-times.com/election ... -nc/37089/

[Vrede too]

Depending on the race, about 2,640 of 2,670 precincts reported.
I did pretty well.
2 flops - POTUS & US House
1 Runoff - Lieutenant Governor
2 affirmative action switches did not advance, but my original preferences did - Superintendent of Public Instruction & NC State Senate

NC

POTUS, Liberarian, 16 candidates - leader has 8.71%, No Preference has 29.23%

Dems, my picks

POTUS- Bernie!
Biden, Joe 41.65%, killed it
Sanders, Bernie 23.94%
Bloomberg, Michael 13.46%, zero delegates at the moment
Tulsi 0.5%

US Senate - Cal Cunningham
Cunningham, Cal 57.02%
Smith, Erica 34.83%

US House of Representatives District 11 - Michael O'Shea
Davis, Moe 47.46%
Price, Phillip 11.19%
O'Shea, Michael 11.17%

Governor - Roy Cooper
Cooper, Roy 87.15%
Reeves, Ernest 12.85%

Lieutenant Governor - Terry Van Duyn Advances to Runoff with Holley
Holley, Yvonne 26.17% (Great resume, but no endorsers listed, yuck.) Maybe fine if she wins.
Van Duyn, Terry 20.77%
Thomas, Allen 19.56%
Beasley, Chaz 18.26%

Auditor - Beth Wood
Wood, Beth 78.13%
Toledo, Luis 21.87%

Commissioner of Agriculture - Jennifer Austin Wadsworth
Wadsworth, Jenna 54.08%
Smith, Walter 30.9%

Superintendent of Public Instruction - Keith Sutton
1. Keith Sutton, affirmative action pick
2. Jen Mangrum
Mangrum, Jen 33.08%, okay by me
Sutton, Keith 26.55%
Johnson, Constance 21.13%

Treasurer - Ronnie Chatterji
1. Ronnie Chatterji
2. Dimple Ajmera
Both okay.
Chatterji, Ronnie 34.96%
Ajmera, Dimple 34.52%
Leatherman, Matt 30.52%

NC State Senate District 48 - Cristal Figueroa
1. Cristal Figueroa, affirmative action pick
2. Brian Caskey
Caskey, Brian 49.8%, okay by me
Figueroa, Cristal 33.11%

House of Representatives District 117 - Josh Remillard
Remillard, Josh 54.19%
Aicher, Danae 45.81% :confusion-scratchheadblue: she withdrew

Henderson County Commissioner – District #2 - Debbie Roundtree
Debbie Roundtree 76.40%
Royce Canty 23.60%

[Vrede too]

Today only:

Biden 8 states, including #3 NC, delegates in all states
Bernie 4 states, including #1 CA, delegates in all states
ME and #2 TX too close to call
Bloomberg, delegates in just 6 states and one is very narrow
Liz!, delegates in just 5 states and a couple are very narrow

The fat lady is still backstage.

[GoCubsGo]

At least we've heard the last from Roy Moore.

https://news.yahoo.com/sessions-likely- ... 00589.html

[Whack9]

Today only:

Biden 8 states, including #3 NC, delegates in all states
Bernie 4 states, including #1 CA, delegates in all states
ME and #2 TX too close to call
Bloomberg, delegates in just 6 states and one is very narrow
Liz!, delegates in just 5 states and a couple are very narrow

The fat lady is still backstage.

Looks like Biden is the front runner again.

[Vrede too]

Looks like Biden is the front runner again.

No doubt, may never be caught.
https://www.npr.org/

Today only:

Biden 8 9 states, including #2 TX & #3 NC, delegates in all states
Bernie 4 states, including #1 CA, delegates in all states
ME and #2 TX too close to call (Biden leading)
Bloomberg, delegates in just 6 5 states and one is very narrow
Liz!, delegates in just 5 states and a couple are very narrow

The fat lady is still backstage.

Limited predictive value for future primaries, but IF Liz! dropped out, all her voters went to Bernie! and 3/3 were replayed:

Biden 6 states, including #3 NC, delegates in all states
Bernie 8 states, including #1 CA & #2 TX, delegates in all states

I'm guessing the Bernie! team is doing everything it can think of to get her to exit.

Otoh, IF Bloomberg dropped out, all his voters went to Biden and 3/3 were replayed:

Biden 12 states, including #1 CA, #2 TX & #3 NC, delegates in all states
Bernie 2 states, delegates in all states

IF both dropped out and their voters moved as above:

Biden 8 states, including #2 TX & #3 NC, delegates in all states
Bernie! 6 states, including #1 CA, delegates in all states

If Liz! alone drops out, it's still a race, but Bernie! has the theoretical edge.
If Bloomberg alone drops out, Bernie! is done.
If both drop out, it's still a race but Biden has the theoretical edge.

[Vrede too]

At least we've heard the last from Roy Moore.

https://news.yahoo.com/sessions-likely- ... 00589.html

Thanks! Humiliated.

Plus, evil elf Sessions could lose in the runoff.


Not looking good for Jones (D) in Nov, but not impossible.
https://www.wbrc.com/2020/02/12/new-ala ... us-senate/

AL Daily News/Mason-Dixon
2/4 - 2/6
Jones 42.0, Tuberville 50.0
Jones 41.0, Sessions 54.0

[Vrede too]

I already voted for Bloomberg. Glad I didn't go early for Pete or Tom.

Bloomberg drops out of presidential race, endorses Biden

Opps.

Okay Bernie!, I know it sounds crazy, but if you can't persuade Liz! to drop out the progressive thing to do is for you to drop out and endorse her. One of you bailing right now is the only way that Joe MIGHT not be the nominee.

The Democratic Party wastes the votes of so many people every Super Tuesday. It needs to end now

There are a lot of legit absentees like O Really is or I was when I could have been called in to work on any given day. Even then, I would wait until the last possible day that I was confident the mail would arrive in time. However, many vote absentee or early out of convenience, as the article mentions, and I don't have a ton of sympathy for the ones that do so earlier than they need to. That said, we all lose by negating their input - even if we really don't want the input of Bloomberg supporters . Towards the end of the article are suggestions for not wasting these votes. Makes sense to me.

[GoCubsGo]

At least we've heard the last from Roy Moore.

https://news.yahoo.com/sessions-likely- ... 00589.html

Thanks! Humiliated.

Plus, evil elf Sessions could lose in the runoff.


Not looking good for Jones (D) in Nov, but not impossible.
https://www.wbrc.com/2020/02/12/new-ala ... us-senate/

AL Daily News/Mason-Dixon
2/4 - 2/6
Jones 42.0, Tuberville 50.0
Jones 41.0, Sessions 54.0

Lots of time between now and November for tRump to alienate the masses. Have faith.

[GoCubsGo]

Bloomberg gone.

Liz! Won't be long.

[Vrede too]

Lots of time between now and November for tRump to alienate the masses. Have faith.

Very true, but it is Alabama. Pedophile Roy Moore came thaaat close to winning in 2017.

Bloomberg drops out of presidential race, endorses Biden

Opps.

Comments:

Bloomberg, the world’s ninth wealthiest man, has a $61 billion net worth.

Make that 60.225 billion.

"AP source: Bloomberg to reassess after disappointing results"
Half a BILLION dollars just went down the drain. Most people would get upset if they lost $20 on the subway!

Is that the same Michael Bloomberg who said yesterday that he would stay the course until the end?

At least Jeb Bush can take comfort that someone blew more money than he did and got fewer votes.

Mike Bloomberg won the American Samoa caucus, that’s precious....

A rather expensive ego trip, eh Mr. Bloomberg?

Bloomberg needs to realize voters think he really is a Republican. His half billion dollar could have been better spent on ice cream. The problem with spending your own money instead of raising the fund from donors is that Bloomberg is flying in the blind without knowing how popular he really is.... until the last minute when the votes come out and he spent the money.

[O Really]

. Towards the end of the article are suggestions for not wasting these votes. Makes sense to me.

In this particular atypical instance, I don't feel like I wasted my Bloomberg vote. His winning the actual nomination was always a bit of a long shot, but I was voting for him to have impact. And to avoid a simple "least distasteful" vote. So as it turns out, he got his impact on Super Tuesday and his bailing/endorsement looks likely to boost Biden to the nomination, which is fine with me.

I still think it's pointless to vote for a "protest" candidate who has no chance of win or significant impact, but every election has its own quirks.

[Vrede too]

In this particular atypical instance, I don't feel like I wasted my Bloomberg vote. His winning the actual nomination was always a bit of a long shot, but I was voting for him to have impact. And to avoid a simple "least distasteful" vote. So as it turns out, he got his impact on Super Tuesday and his bailing/endorsement looks likely to boost Biden to the nomination, which is fine with me.

I still think it's pointless to vote for a "protest" candidate who has no chance of win or significant impact, but every election has its own quirks.

:?:
Biden won 9 states to Bernie's 4 (including #1 CA) on Super Tuesday. ME is still too close to call. Bernie's wounded but not dead yet. I calculate:
viewtopic.php?p=111865#p111865

... Otoh, IF Bloomberg dropped out, all his voters went to Biden and 3/3 were replayed:

Biden 11 states, including #1 CA, #2 TX & #3 NC, delegates in all states
Bernie 3 states (puny CO, VT & UT), delegates in all states
https://apps.npr.org/liveblogs/20200303-super-tuesday/

That would have been the absolute end for Bernie.

Then, whatever one thinks about whether the Bloomberg campaign was "wasted", how is it not true that your vote for him in the FL primary 13 days from now was not a waste? Unless, of course, you're like me and will sometimes choose ideology over all practicality . This, I'm cool with .

[billy.pilgrim]

. Towards the end of the article are suggestions for not wasting these votes. Makes sense to me.

In this particular atypical instance, I don't feel like I wasted my Bloomberg vote. His winning the actual nomination was always a bit of a long shot, but I was voting for him to have impact. And to avoid a simple "least distasteful" vote. So as it turns out, he got his impact on Super Tuesday and his bailing/endorsement looks likely to boost Biden to the nomination, which is fine with me.

I still think it's pointless to vote for a "protest" candidate who has no chance of win or significant impact, but every election has its own quirks.

Depends. As long as you are sure that the reasonable guy will win anyway. For instance, in 2000 there was no way that a dyslexic draft dodging dry drunk from texas had a chance in hell of winning; therefore, my Florida vote for Nader that started as a simple protest vote resulted in President Gore incorporating many of Nader's policies into the Gore administration.

Yep, it was me and other like minded Florida individuals that proved once and for all the true value of the protest vote.

[Vrede too]

I did pretty well.
2 flops - POTUS & US House

Dems, my picks

US House of Representatives District 11 - Michael O'Shea
Davis, Moe 47.46%
Price, Phillip 11.19%
O'Shea, Michael 11.17%

My guy dropped to 4th .

"... Davis, a former Guantanamo Bay chief prosecutor."

I'm okay with the theory that any Dem in a seat is better than a Repug. However, I do have limits. I will have Green and Libertarian choices in Nov. Even though the district was un-gerrymandered by court decree, it remains pretty Repug. My principled vote's not likely to be wasted.

Plus, the House is almost certain to stay Dem. Davis' influence would likely be to make the caucus marginally more con. Screw that.

[neoplacebo]

I read a story the other day by some political pundit (I forget which one) but he says trump will replace Pence with Nikki Haley in the November election. The guy even gave a specific date this would be announced; sometime in July just before the Democratic convention. After reading this story, I thought, huh, isn't this like overturning the results of the 2016 election? Isn't this the same thing as what the GOP trump cult squawks about over any investigation of trump's criminality? I decided it was.

[Whack9]

I read a story the other day by some political pundit (I forget which one) but he says trump will replace Pence with Nikki Haley in the November election. The guy even gave a specific date this would be announced; sometime in July just before the Democratic convention. After reading this story, I thought, huh, isn't this like overturning the results of the 2016 election? Isn't this the same thing as what the GOP trump cult squawks about over any investigation of trump's criminality? I decided it was.

Pence is gonna be the fall guy for the coronavirus debacle. That's why Trump pawned it off on him. If everything is handled well, Trump takes credit. If it's s failure, Trump blames pence.