Social Distancing 1A

[billy.pilgrim]

Duval and St. Johns Counties, where that beach is (Duval) have about 1,000 reported cases and about 20 deaths. Given that the actual number of cases is considered to be way above the official reports, that one can be infected with no symptoms, and that one can transmit virus before symptoms, what are the chances nobody out there in that crowd is infected?

What are the chances that 1%, 5%, 10% or more in that crowd are infected or carriers?

Just guessing, but I'd say 1%. Looking at some possibly unrelated numbers, it looks like Duval/St. Johns have a fairly low reported rate, about .01% (1,000 out of 1mill) and assuming it's at least 10 times that for actual number (some have guessed at 50 times reported), that would be the 1%. A lot of the infected are going to be sick, though, and not go out to the beach, but a lot more either (a) have no symptoms or (b) don't think whatever symptoms they have are corvid; or (c) think even if they have corvid it's not bad enough to infect. So if there were 500 people on the beach, and at least 5 of them were actively infected, they could definitely do some damage over the course of an hour or so interacting with the crowd. If each of the 5 only manages to infect two people in their hour, then we have 10 cases wandering back out into the city. If those happen to have jobs where they interact with people, they start getting a cluster.

That may not sound like much, but if you consider the New York mess was started by one guy who went to his synagogue and then rode the subway into the city, passed through Grand Central, and went to work at his law firm.

Great example

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03 ... ction.html

"You call a friend and arrange to meet for lunch. It’s unseasonably springlike, so you choose a place with outdoor seating, which seems like it should be safer. As usual, you take all reasonable precautions: You use hand sanitizer, sit a good distance from other customers, and try to avoid touching your face, though that last part is hard. A part of you suspects that this whole thing might be overblown."

"What you don’t know is that ten days ago, your friend’s father was a guest of his business partner at the University Club, where he caught the novel coronavirus from the wife of a cryptocurrency speculator. Three days after that, he coughed into his hand before opening the door of his apartment to welcome his son home. The saliva of COVID-19 patients can harbor half a trillion virus particles per teaspoon, and a cough aerosolizes it into a diffuse mist. As your friend walked through the door he took a breath and 32,456 virus particles settled onto the lining of his mouth and throat."

"Viruses have been multiplying inside his body ever since. And as he talks, the passage of his breath over the moist lining of his upper throat creates tiny droplets of virus-laden mucus that waft invisibly into the air over your table. Some settle on the as-yet-uneaten food on your plate, some drift onto your fingers, others are drawn into your nasal sinus or settle into your throat. By the time you extend your hand to shake good-bye, your body is carrying 43,654 virus particles. By the time you’re done shaking hands, that number is up to 312,405."

"One of the droplets gets drawn into the branching passages of your lungs and settles on the warm, wet surface, depositing virus particles into the mucus coating the tissue."



And later arm in arm at Jacksonville area beach bars they celebrated a great day on the beach.

[neoplacebo]

Duval and St. Johns Counties, where that beach is (Duval) have about 1,000 reported cases and about 20 deaths. Given that the actual number of cases is considered to be way above the official reports, that one can be infected with no symptoms, and that one can transmit virus before symptoms, what are the chances nobody out there in that crowd is infected?

What are the chances that 1%, 5%, 10% or more in that crowd are infected or carriers?

I will guess more than 10% are carriers and more like 25% are.

[Vrede too]

Yahoo News/YouGov coronavirus poll: Most Americans reject anti-lockdown protests

… 60 percent of the public opposes the largely pro-Trump protesters whose calls for governors to “liberate” their states by lifting lockdown measures have attracted intense media attention in recent days — and whose message the president amplified Friday in a series of all-caps “LIBERATE” tweets about three swing states: Minnesota, Michigan and Virginia.

Only 22 percent of Americans say they support the protesters. Despite Trump’s messaging, even Republicans oppose the protests 47 percent to 36 percent. Asked whether they agree or disagree with Trump’s “LIBERATE” tweets, only a quarter of Americans say they agree….

The margins aren’t close. Seventy-one percent of Americans — and 56 percent of Republicans — say they are more concerned about lifting the coronavirus restrictions too quickly than lifting them too slowly. Only 29 percent of Americans say the opposite. The same number (71 percent) say they want public health officials “to be fully able to test and trace new cases and outbreaks” before reopening; only 29 percent say they want the country to reopen “as soon as possible to prevent further economic damage.” And more than twice as many Americans say the U.S. is not conducting enough coronavirus testing to track future outbreaks of the virus (52 percent) than say it is (22 percent).

As a result, a mere 13 percent of Americans think their own community will be ready to reopen by May 1, the date Trump has been pushing for weeks. Only 7 percent say the U.S. as a whole will be ready to reopen by then. Eighty-one percent of all adults (and 74 percent of Republicans) believe that the virus will be a “serious problem” for them and their community for two months or more, and three-quarters of Americans (77 percent) say the entire country will not be ready to reopen until at least June. Nearly half (48 percent) say the U.S. will not be ready to reopen until July 1 or later.

The reason, according to the poll, is that nearly 90 percent of Americans think a resurgence of coronavirus cases would be either “very” (51 percent) or “somewhat” likely (36 percent) if lockdown ended today. Overall, 79 percent continue to say that stay-at-home orders are “the only way to stop the spread of COVID-19”; only 21 percent say “the cure is worse than the disease.” Trump has tweeted about the lockdowns: “THE CURE CANNOT BE WORSE (by far) THAN THE PROBLEM!” In deciding when to reopen, far more Americans say the U.S. should pay attention to doctors and public health officials (56 percent) than to economists and business leaders (7 percent); 37 percent want both consulted equally. Health, not the economy, comes first.

Trump did not fare well in the poll. A plurality of Americans — 49 percent to 45 percent — disapprove of the way the president has handled the pandemic. But that’s consistent with previous Yahoo News/YouGov polls. More telling were the specific questions about responsibility and trust. Fifty-nine percent of Americans rate their state and local government’s coronavirus response as “excellent” or “good”; only 48 percent of those who’ve heard from Trump in the last week say the same about him. Nearly half of Americans (49 percent) say they trust their governor more than the president to handle the pandemic; only a quarter (26 percent) say the opposite. Nearly three out of four Americans (74 percent) say their governor should decide when their state should reopen. Just 13 percent want Trump to make that decision. And even though Trump has argued otherwise, more than half of Americans (52 percent) say the federal government — rather than individual states (31 percent) — should be responsible for ramping up testing in the weeks ahead.

Overall, 65 percent of Americans say that Trump could have reduced the damage done by the coronavirus — either “a lot” (41 percent) or “somewhat” (24 percent) — if he had acted sooner.

In keeping with that finding, most Americans seem to take the long view in terms of transitioning out of lockdown. Two-thirds of Americans (67 percent), independents (66 percent) and Republicans (64 percent) say they will continue to practice social distancing even after official restrictions are lifted; just 13 percent of Americans say they will not.

Asked about specific social distancing measures, a large majority (72 percent) supports continuing to stay 6 feet away from other people whenever possible. Roughly half also support wearing cloth masks in public (50 percent), requiring restaurant waiters to wear masks and gloves (47 percent) and suspending large events like concerts and conferences (54 percent).....

Health Care Workers Block Denver Protesters Calling For End To Stay-At-Home Orders
Hundreds of Coloradans descended on the capitol to voice their anger about the government’s response to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.


“You go to work, why can’t I go to work,” a woman yelled at a man dressed in scrubs during a protest on Sunday.

[billy.pilgrim]

Yahoo News/YouGov coronavirus poll: Most Americans reject anti-lockdown protests

… 60 percent of the public opposes the largely pro-Trump protesters whose calls for governors to “liberate” their states by lifting lockdown measures have attracted intense media attention in recent days — and whose message the president amplified Friday in a series of all-caps “LIBERATE” tweets about three swing states: Minnesota, Michigan and Virginia.

Only 22 percent of Americans say they support the protesters. Despite Trump’s messaging, even Republicans oppose the protests 47 percent to 36 percent. Asked whether they agree or disagree with Trump’s “LIBERATE” tweets, only a quarter of Americans say they agree….

The margins aren’t close. Seventy-one percent of Americans — and 56 percent of Republicans — say they are more concerned about lifting the coronavirus restrictions too quickly than lifting them too slowly. Only 29 percent of Americans say the opposite. The same number (71 percent) say they want public health officials “to be fully able to test and trace new cases and outbreaks” before reopening; only 29 percent say they want the country to reopen “as soon as possible to prevent further economic damage.” And more than twice as many Americans say the U.S. is not conducting enough coronavirus testing to track future outbreaks of the virus (52 percent) than say it is (22 percent).

As a result, a mere 13 percent of Americans think their own community will be ready to reopen by May 1, the date Trump has been pushing for weeks. Only 7 percent say the U.S. as a whole will be ready to reopen by then. Eighty-one percent of all adults (and 74 percent of Republicans) believe that the virus will be a “serious problem” for them and their community for two months or more, and three-quarters of Americans (77 percent) say the entire country will not be ready to reopen until at least June. Nearly half (48 percent) say the U.S. will not be ready to reopen until July 1 or later.

The reason, according to the poll, is that nearly 90 percent of Americans think a resurgence of coronavirus cases would be either “very” (51 percent) or “somewhat” likely (36 percent) if lockdown ended today. Overall, 79 percent continue to say that stay-at-home orders are “the only way to stop the spread of COVID-19”; only 21 percent say “the cure is worse than the disease.” Trump has tweeted about the lockdowns: “THE CURE CANNOT BE WORSE (by far) THAN THE PROBLEM!” In deciding when to reopen, far more Americans say the U.S. should pay attention to doctors and public health officials (56 percent) than to economists and business leaders (7 percent); 37 percent want both consulted equally. Health, not the economy, comes first.

Trump did not fare well in the poll. A plurality of Americans — 49 percent to 45 percent — disapprove of the way the president has handled the pandemic. But that’s consistent with previous Yahoo News/YouGov polls. More telling were the specific questions about responsibility and trust. Fifty-nine percent of Americans rate their state and local government’s coronavirus response as “excellent” or “good”; only 48 percent of those who’ve heard from Trump in the last week say the same about him. Nearly half of Americans (49 percent) say they trust their governor more than the president to handle the pandemic; only a quarter (26 percent) say the opposite. Nearly three out of four Americans (74 percent) say their governor should decide when their state should reopen. Just 13 percent want Trump to make that decision. And even though Trump has argued otherwise, more than half of Americans (52 percent) say the federal government — rather than individual states (31 percent) — should be responsible for ramping up testing in the weeks ahead.

Overall, 65 percent of Americans say that Trump could have reduced the damage done by the coronavirus — either “a lot” (41 percent) or “somewhat” (24 percent) — if he had acted sooner.

In keeping with that finding, most Americans seem to take the long view in terms of transitioning out of lockdown. Two-thirds of Americans (67 percent), independents (66 percent) and Republicans (64 percent) say they will continue to practice social distancing even after official restrictions are lifted; just 13 percent of Americans say they will not.

Asked about specific social distancing measures, a large majority (72 percent) supports continuing to stay 6 feet away from other people whenever possible. Roughly half also support wearing cloth masks in public (50 percent), requiring restaurant waiters to wear masks and gloves (47 percent) and suspending large events like concerts and conferences (54 percent).....

Health Care Workers Block Denver Protesters Calling For End To Stay-At-Home Orders
Hundreds of Coloradans descended on the capitol to voice their anger about the government’s response to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.


“You go to work, why can’t I go to work,” a woman yelled at a man dressed in scrubs during a protest on Sunday.

Wanna bet she didn't have a job before the virus?

[Vrede too]

America knows that PINO and his ovine Trumpettes are ignorant, unpatriotic and dangerous.

Wanna bet she didn't have a job before the virus?

She's sure never been "essential" to society.

If You Thought Anti-Quarantine Rallies Looked Familiar, You Were Right
"Is the Trump political operation behind this? I have no way of knowing that but I will say they fit into Trump’s political agenda and priorities perfectly," Melissa Ryan wrote.

[Limier than most]

Original American (and properly spelled) version:

viewtopic.php?p=117039#p117039

Mutually exclusive.

You know we vastly improved on your Frenchified inefficient misspelling of common words.

With the result that you look illiterate to native speakers.

[Vrede too]

Good discussion:

Is the Virus on My Clothes? My Shoes? My Hair? My Newspaper?

In general, not much risk from these vectors.

[billy.pilgrim]

Good discussion:

Is the Virus on My Clothes? My Shoes? My Hair? My Newspaper?

In general, not much risk from these vectors.

"Most of what we know about how long this novel coronavirus lives on surfaces comes from an important study published in The New England Journal of Medicine in March. The study found that the virus can survive, under ideal conditions, up to three days on hard metal surfaces and plastic and up to 24 hours on cardboard."

"But the study did not look at fabric. Still, most virus experts believe that the cardboard research offers clues about how the virus probably behaves on fabric."

Brought to you by the same people who last week said the opposite.

Bottom line - doing too much can't hurt, but not doing enough can kill you. 2 weeks ago "experts" were saying not to wear masks, 2 weeks before there was something else...

So this article talks about fak9nanny bric but doesn't back it up with a study. Really - no studies, there is a pandemic and no one has gotten around to checking how long this thing lives on clothing, or were the results so bad that the idiot public doesn't need to know.

The article claimed no need to wash shoes, clothing, etc., but goes on to "guess" that the virus can live on those items for 1 to 24 hours.

Just another cobbled together article that makes about as much sense as the doctor who said that the public should not be wearing masks because even 30% of nurses are too stupid to put one on right - although this is true about 100% of Florida governors, it isn't true for the general public and especially not hospital staff.

[Vrede too]

"Most of what we know about how long this novel coronavirus lives on surfaces comes from an important study published in The New England Journal of Medicine in March. The study found that the virus can survive, under ideal conditions, up to three days on hard metal surfaces and plastic and up to 24 hours on cardboard."

"But the study did not look at fabric. Still, most virus experts believe that the cardboard research offers clues about how the virus probably behaves on fabric."

Brought to you by the same people who last week said the opposite.

Who? Citation?

Bottom line - doing too much can't hurt, but not doing enough can kill you. 2 weeks ago "experts" were saying not to wear masks, 2 weeks before there was something else...

You're confused. The masks are mostly not to protect the lay person wearer. Rather, what changed is the research showing that asymptomatic people can be contagious. The masks are to protect others.

So this article talks about fak9nanny bric

:?:

but doesn't back it up with a study. Really - no studies, there is a pandemic and no one has gotten around to checking how long this thing lives on clothing, or were the results so bad that the idiot public doesn't need to know.

The article claimed no need to wash shoes, clothing, etc., but goes on to "guess" that the virus can live on those items for 1 to 24 hours....

Too much variability among clothing to study each type, but likely viral load does matter, as does regular hand washing and not touching your face. So, generalities have to be made.

[billy.pilgrim]

"fak9nanny bric"

I have no idea what I tried to type.


Well I guess if the studies are difficult, then there is no need. Now you are talking like trump.

[Limier than most]

Original American (and properly spelled) version:

viewtopic.php?p=117039#p117039

Mutually exclusive.

You know we vastly improved on your Frenchified inefficient misspelling of common words.

With the result that you look illiterate to native speakers.

But properly spoken and written to the vast majority of the world's English speakers.

While your lot just look quaint, old-fashioned, and stuck in mud.

If everyone else is wrong, the person who is right is still right innit bruv.

[Vrede too]

"fak9nanny bric"

I have no idea what I tried to type.

I see now. For some bizarre reason you stuck "k9nanny " in the word "fabric".

Well I guess if the studies are difficult, then there is no need.

Sigh, you missed the point. Each of us has dozens of types of fabric in our clothing. Do you really expect someone to test and then give you a list of virus retention for each one, and what would you do with it? It's a somewhat different topic, but look at the filtering differences among fabrics:

The Best Coronavirus Face Mask Materials, According To A New Study

Also, since we touched on your misunderstanding:

... And remember: By covering your face in public, you are helping others to stay safe from anything you may be carrying. It’s more about their protection than your own.

Now you are talking like trump.

Fuck off. The problem is that you're comprehending like a Trumpette.

[billy.pilgrim]

"fak9nanny bric"

I have no idea what I tried to type.

I see now. For some bizarre reason you stuck "k9nanny " in the word "fabric".

Well I guess if the studies are difficult, then there is no need.

Sigh, you missed the point. Each of us has dozens of types of fabric in our clothing. Do you really expect someone to test and then give you a list of virus retention for each one, and what would you do with it? It's a somewhat different topic, but look at the filtering differences among fabrics:

The Best Coronavirus Face Mask Materials, According To A New Study

Also, since we touched on your misunderstanding:

... And remember: By covering your face in public, you are helping others to stay safe from anything you may be carrying. It’s more about their protection than your own.

Now you are talking like trump.

Fuck off. The problem is that you're comprehending like a Trumpette.

Bizarre reason?

The article said no fabric testing, now you throw in something that shows results of fabric testing.


The article author is a journalist who has cobbled together contradictory info.
Same as the article that said don't wear masks.

[Vrede too]

"fak9nanny bric"

I have no idea what I tried to type.

I see now. For some bizarre reason you stuck "k9nanny " in the word "fabric".

Bizarre reason?

Okay, what is your sensible reason for putting "k9nanny " in the middle of the word "fabric", and if it was a sensible reason, how did you forget what you intended in less than half an hour?

The article said no fabric testing, now you throw in something that shows results of fabric testing

Sigh, testing every possible fabric for virus retention and likelihood of causing disease is very different than testing a few fabrics people are using to make masks. I merely cited the masks article to illustrate that there are differences when you're unreasonably demanding a one size fits all answer for how long the virus lives on clothing.

The article author is a journalist who has cobbled together contradictory info.
Same as the article that said don't wear masks.

Sigh, as I explained above and you're ignoring it was the experts that changed their opinion based on new science.

[billy.pilgrim]

"fak9nanny bric"

I have no idea what I tried to type.

I see now. For some bizarre reason you stuck "k9nanny " in the word "fabric".

Bizarre reason?

Okay, what is your sensible reason for putting "k9nanny " in the middle of the word "fabric", and if it was a sensible reason, how did you forget what you intended?

The article said no fabric testing, now you throw in something that shows results of fabric testing

Sigh, testing every possible fabric for virus retention and likelihood of causing disease is very different than testing a few fabrics people are using to make masks. I merely cited the masks article to illustrate that there are differences when you're unreasonably demanding a one size fits all answer for how long the virus lives on clothing.

The article author is a journalist who has cobbled together contradictory info.
Same as the article that said don't wear masks.

Sigh, as I explained above and you're ignoring it was the experts that changed their opinion based on new science.

What "new science"?
The article said no fabric tests - that's either wrong or stupid.

As for typing mistakes - you know that I use a phone and don't preview like I should. Knowing that, you should have known that it wasn't "bizarre", just fat fongers.

[billy.pilgrim]

"fak9nanny bric"

I have no idea what I tried to type.

I see now. For some bizarre reason you stuck "k9nanny " in the word "fabric".

Bizarre reason?

Okay, what is your sensible reason for putting "k9nanny " in the middle of the word "fabric", and if it was a sensible reason, how did you forget what you intended?

The article said no fabric testing, now you throw in something that shows results of fabric testing

Sigh, testing every possible fabric for virus retention and likelihood of causing disease is very different than testing a few fabrics people are using to make masks. I merely cited the masks article to illustrate that there are differences when you're unreasonably demanding a one size fits all answer for how long the virus lives on clothing.

The article author is a journalist who has cobbled together contradictory info.
Same as the article that said don't wear masks.

Sigh, as I explained above and you're ignoring it was the experts that changed their opinion based on new science.

What "new science"?
The article said no fabric tests - that's either wrong or stupid.

As for typing mistakes - you know that I use a phone and don't preview like I should. Knowing that, you should have known that it wasn't "bizarre", just fat fongers.

Here's one for you. This doctor thinks the public is too stupid to use soap, but the "journalist" does beat the hell out of a bunch strawmen

https://www.sciencealert.com/food-safet ... e-pandemic

[Vrede too]

Are you drunk or having a stroke?

What "new science"?

2 weeks ago "experts" were saying not to wear masks, 2 weeks before there was something else...

You're confused. The masks are mostly not to protect the lay person wearer. Rather, what changed is the research showing that asymptomatic people can be contagious. The masks are to protect others.

The Best Coronavirus Face Mask Materials, According To A New Study

Also, since we touched on your misunderstanding:

... And remember: By covering your face in public, you are helping others to stay safe from anything you may be carrying. It’s more about their protection than your own.

The article said no fabric tests - that's either wrong or stupid.

Sigh, testing every possible fabric for virus retention and likelihood of causing disease is very different than testing a few fabrics people are using to make masks. I merely cited the masks article to illustrate that there are differences when you're unreasonably demanding a one size fits all answer for how long the virus lives on clothing.

As for typing mistakes - you know that I use a phone and don't preview like I should. Knowing that, you should have known that it wasn't "bizarre", just fat fongers.

Got it. You stuck "k9nanny " in the word "fabric" and you initially don't even know what happened, yet I am somehow supposed to figure it out and not call it "bizarre". How can I ever forgive myself?

[Vrede too]

Here's one for you. This doctor thinks the public is too stupid to use soap, but the "journalist" does beat the hell out of a bunch strawmen

https://www.sciencealert.com/food-safet ... e-pandemic

:?: :?: :?:
What "journalist"? That's a column written by a microbiologist.

Donald Schaffner is a microbiologist and expert on food safety from Rutgers University.

Anyhow, this is not a discussion about whether journalists screw up. Of course they do and that's just your straw man to imply that I think otherwise. Rather, this discussion is about all the ways that you're confused about the first article I linked.

[Vrede too]

Hwæt sy þín uneáðnesse?

"What does your sewing do?" (Icelandic)
https://translate.google.com/

:confusion-scratchheadblue:

[billy.pilgrim]

Here's one for you. This doctor thinks the public is too stupid to use soap, but the "journalist" does beat the hell out of a bunch strawmen

https://www.sciencealert.com/food-safet ... e-pandemic

:?: :?: :?:
What "journalist"? That's a column written by a microbiologist.

Donald Schaffner is a microbiologist and expert on food safety from Rutgers University.

Anyhow, this is not a discussion about whether journalists screw up. Of course they do and that's just your straw man to imply that I think otherwise. Rather, this discussion is about all the ways that you're confused about the first article I linked.

My mistake, he writes like a journalist. Strange that he believes you can rinse soap off of your dishes but not your apples. Maybe he is unable to apply his knowledge to the real world.

And I love the way he beat up the strawman who was leaving his ice cream in the garage for 3 days.

Face it vrede, people are saying all kinds of bullshit. Do ghis, but don't do it about pretty much everything.


The 1st article was full of contradictions and was written by a journalist/marriage expert, too bad she fooled you.