2022 elections

[billy.pilgrim]

Here's one of the crazy baby blood drinking left coast liberules making way too much sense for a politician. Too bad she had to use facts, who'll buy it?

Imagine this, it really wasn't Biden who caused the inflation, it was the spirits of the long dead Hamburglar and Tony the Tiger infused throughout corporateland by Citizen's United.


More great comments

"I tried pointing this out to my neighbor who was complaining about inflation, particularly gas prices. His answer was "They closed the XL Pipeline". So closing the pipeline that never sent the US any oil made prices go up."

"Corporate profits are at a 72 year high. It’s freaking insane."

Thanks!

They're all saying that about the pipeline, clearly a manufactured talking point suited for RepuQs that are too slow to think things through. You can also point out that the oil is already entering market by other means, so no effect on prices by stopping construction, AND that Joe doesn't have the power to increase GLOBAL oil prices (or inflation). Of course, facts and reason never do any good, but at least you will know that you stomped them.

The seven Democrats most likely to run for president — if Biden bows out


Not a bad lineup IMO. I think Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) is great, too. She absolutely shreds RepuQs and CEOs.

'POTUS Porter' has a nice ring to it.

Franken should be there. Too bad about Me Too meeting fox, Gillibrand and 2 dozen other dems to call for him to step down rather than allowed any defense, based on an obviously false description of a picture and more lies by a sponsored right-wing operative, guilty until proven innocent and the woman is always right ruled the day.
Still does, if you ask Gillibrand, who still claims she was right to destroy Al.

[Vrede too]

We've been discussing most of these, but it's handy to have them put together.

Midterm Rankings: Here are the 7 Senate seats most likely to flip

Pennsylvania GQP > Dem
Nevada Dem > GQP
Georgia Dem > GQP
Wisconsin GQP > Dem
North Carolina GQP > Dem
Ohio GQP > Dem
New Hampshire Dem > GQP

On this list:
4 possible Dem pick ups;
3 possible GQP pick ups.

I've become pessimistic.

[GoCubsGo]

We've been discussing most of these, but it's handy to have them put together.

Midterm Rankings: Here are the 7 Senate seats most likely to flip

Pennsylvania GQP > Dem
Nevada Dem > GQP
Georgia Dem > GQP
Wisconsin GQP > Dem
North Carolina GQP > Dem
Ohio GQP > Dem
New Hampshire Dem > GQP

On this list:
4 possible Dem pick ups;
3 possible GQP pick ups.

I've become pessimistic.

Polls tightening running up to the election is pretty standard. What's mind blowing is that it's even close. It's not a reason for optimism.

[Vrede too]

Polls tightening running up to the election is pretty standard. What's mind blowing is that it's even close. It's not a reason for optimism.

Yeah, we're still screwed even in the apparently unlikely scenario that the Dems retain both houses.

Trump calls DeSantis endorsement of Joe O’Dea a ‘big mistake’

Former President Trump is calling Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R) endorsement of Colorado GOP Senate nominee Joe O’Dea, who has repeatedly criticized Trump, “a big mistake.” ...

This is a perfect article:
TRE45QN and DerSantis at odds;
TRE45QN being a crybaby, again, because DerSantis dares to back a GQP pol that hasn't bent over for TRE45QN;
DerSantis supporting a certain LOSER more out of his own ambition and vanity than with any intent to help a victory.

RCP Average 10/3 - 10/6: Bennet (D) * 49.5, O'Dea (R) 42.0
Spread Bennet +7.5

You go, Former PINO, win that 2024 nomination then face crushing defeat in the general!

The GQP is a Klown Kar.

[Vrede too]

Heard on TV news that FiveThirtyEight gives the Dems a 52% chance of holding the Senate. That goes up to 74% if Fetterman > Oz in PA.

RCP Average 10/19 - 10/24: Fetterman (D) 47.3, Oz (R) 46.0
Spread Fetterman +1.3

Here's an LTE from a 70 year old local. Nothing that we haven't said or posted before, but it's an excellent, comprehensive, neo-style though non-vulgar, scathing of the GQP.

Letter: Vote for Democratic candidates who share our values

[GoCubsGo]

[O Really]

Fetterman in a coma would be a better Senator than Oz or Walker or congress critters Greene or Boembert or many others for that matter. Yet he gets all the negative attention and queasy voters. This country is totally screwed.

[Vrede too]

Fetterman in a coma would be a better Senator than Oz or Walker or congress critters Greene or Boembert or many others for that matter. Yet he gets all the negative attention and queasy voters. This country is totally screwed.

True, but weren't you just ranting about unelectable Black women? Seems the same might apply to major stroke victims, and Oz has gotten plenty of carpetbagger, "10 mansions" and "crudite" negative attention. Fetterman should have withdrawn so that the Dems could appoint a winning replacement. It wouldn't have taken much vs Oz the Quack, and Fetterman could have always run anew once sufficiently recovered. The literal fate of the nation may rest on one blown debate.

[O Really]

Fetterman in a coma would be a better Senator than Oz or Walker or congress critters Greene or Boembert or many others for that matter. Yet he gets all the negative attention and queasy voters. This country is totally screwed.

True, but weren't you just ranting about unelectable Black women? Seems the same might apply to major stroke victims, and Oz has gotten plenty of carpetbagger, "10 mansions" and "crudite" negative attention. Fetterman should have withdrawn so that the Dems could appoint a winning replacement. It wouldn't have taken much vs Oz the Quack, and Fetterman could have always run anew once sufficiently recovered. The literal fate of the nation may rest on one blown debate.

Yeah, it would have been better if Fetterman had withdrawn, but it might have taken a bit more than you think to knock off Oz with a replacement. Oz has huge name recognition. Fetterman is Lt Gov., has already won statewide and is a known personality. Seems he could have avoided a debate with less fall-out than his halting performance. I may still be on the PA voting rolls from the 70's. Maybe I could help him out with a few votes

[billy.pilgrim]

Everybody knows, whether they admit it or not, that the US is a fundamentally racist society. In almost every facet of life, white people, and particularly white males, have a starting advantage over everybody else. One minor example (out of countless available) was the resume test run a few years ago where the only difference in the resumes was the name of the applicant. There was a generic white guy name, a black-sounding name, and a female name. Otherwise everything about the resume was identical. Sending the same resume in for the same job listing found a significant across the board greater number of call-ins for the white guy than the others.

So I wondered if anybody had calculated the built-in advantage of the white guy over the black woman in any given election. And if they did, have they reported it to the Dems. In particular, I thought about Beasley in NC and Demings in FL. Both of these are highly qualified for the office they're running for, and both opponents have significant vulnerabilities. In NC, the last I saw, Budd was leading Beasley by 4 or 5. I'll bet if Beasley was as white guy with the exact same qualifications, he's be leading. In GA, even as a Dem, I bet Warnock would be leading substantially over Horrible Walker if he were a white guy.

Do the Dems really believe they're advancing the cause of black people or black females in particular to keep on sending them up as cannon fodder instead of actually winning elections?

This bias extends to black men as well, maybe to a lesser degree, but still harmful to dems and progressives.

Obama may have won the presidency for 8 years, but along the way he inspired racists, who had never voted, to register and vote.

Granted, Hillary lost mainly because the House weaponized the many bs Benghazi hearings and Comey's underhanded lie about more emails, but hard in the mix were these new racist voters out to stop any and all dems.
They spoke again in 2018 by very narrowly electing white boy DeSantis over Gillium.

I wish Hillary had won the Primary in 2008.

[Vrede too]

Yeah, it would have been better if Fetterman had withdrawn, but it might have taken a bit more than you think to knock off Oz with a replacement. Oz has huge name recognition. Fetterman is Lt Gov., has already won statewide and is a known personality. Seems he could have avoided a debate with less fall-out than his halting performance. I may still be on the PA voting rolls from the 70's. Maybe I could help him out with a few votes

What's good for the goose . . . but I think that PA is a voter suppressing, heavy purge of the voter rolls state.

I think the likely replacement for Fetterman would have been 2nd place in the primary Conor Lamb. Not a statewide officeholder, but a decent resume. Refusing to debate is fraught, but it sounds like it couldn't have been worse than debating. Fortunately, Pennsylvanians are known for being decent, compassionate and forgiving. Ask any Eagles coach or player . We'll see.

[Vrede too]

Schumer caught on hot mic telling Biden that Georgia's Senate race is 'going downhill' for Dems

... "The state where we're going downhill is Georgia," Schumer said in a candid conversation on a New York airfield tarmac with the president, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., that was filmed by the Washington Post. "It's hard to believe that they will go for Herschel Walker."

According an aggregate polling average compiled by the website FiveThirtyEight, Georgia's incumbent, Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, currently holds a slight 1.7% point lead over Walker, the Republican nominee. The trend line in recent polls, however, shows Walker ahead in recent surveys, despite allegations brought by two women that Walker, who has been outspoken during the campaign about his opposition to abortion, paid for them to undergo the procedure.

Neither candidate, however, is currently polling above 50%, a threshold that must be surpassed when all the votes are counted in Georgia to avoid a runoff.

... "It looks like the debate didn't hurt us too much in Pennsylvania as of today, so that's good," Schumer said of Fetterman's difficulties answering some questions owing to his ongoing recovery from a stroke.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Fetterman continues to cling to a 2-point lead over Oz.

Phew. TV News: Fetterman collected > $2M in less than 2 hours!

Schumer also sounded an optimistic note about Nevada's Senate election between incumbent Democrat Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and Republican Adam Laxalt, saying, "We're picking up steam in Nevada."

With that race essentially deadlocked since mid-September, recent polling has shown Cortez Masto with a razor-thin lead in recent days, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Schumer's open-mic moment was the second in as many months. In September, the majority leader was overheard at an Italian restaurant in Washington, D.C., telling a group of fellow senators that Democrats were likely to lose control of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, Punchbowl News reported.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Republicans "are favored" to win back control of the House of Representatives. "The GOP has a 4 in 5 chance of taking control of the chamber," the website projected Thursday.

The Senate, meanwhile "is currently a toss-up, with Democrats ever so slightly ahead," FiveThirtyEight said.

In recent years polling has tended to undercount RepuQs. One would hope that pollsters would take corrective measures, but .

[GoCubsGo]

We may be doomed.

[Vrede too]

We may be doomed.

Kari Lake Is Lifting The GOP Ticket In Arizona As Democrats Watch Terrified
Republican Kari Lake and Democrat Katie Hobbs are running two entirely different campaigns for governor — and one seems to be more effective.

... In the campaign’s final sprint, Hobbs is using small gatherings with local elected Democrats and volunteers to contrast herself with Lake, whom she calls “that Trump-endorsed, election-denying, media-hating, conspiracy-loving GOP nominee” — a phrase she utters in a single breath on the stump.

Lake’s biggest events mimic a Trump rally, and she uses them to similar effect, mocking Hobbs for holding ones a fraction of the size.

Marsha, Marsha, Marsha:

... Lake’s special guest that evening, Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn, told the audience that over 5,000 people had assembled to see Lake and a musician from the country band Lonestar, whose song “Amazed” was a 1999 chart-topper.

“They are patriots, and they’re getting ready to make certain that on Nov. 8, Arizona is going to have a great governor named Kari Lake!” Blackburn shouted at the sea of “patriots” in MAGA and Lake campaign gear following an hour of ear-splitting music from Trump’s own campaign playlist as the sun set over the dusty, animal-fragrant ranch.

The forces at play in Arizona — whether it’s Lake’s specific take on Trump or a national climate favoring Republicans or both — appear to be benefiting the former Phoenix newscaster, propelling her to a razor-thin lead in the latest polls. And she isn’t the only GOP nominee pulling ahead: Election-denier and Republican secretary of state nominee Mark Finchem, who cheered on Arizona’s partisan election audit, is also strongly in contention for Hobbs’ current job running elections, an apocalyptic scenario for Democrats.

In the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly is projected to keep his seat, though venture capitalist Blake Masters, a mentee of right-wing tech entrepreneur Peter Thiel, isn’t far behind.

... “It’s just scary and helpless,” said Josh Winston, a veterinarian and Democrat from El Mirage who fears the outcome of this year’s election will amplify hate, especially antisemitism. “Every election year, there’s hyperbole, that’s just the nature of politics. But to us, it doesn’t seem like hyperbole anymore. How do you combat it when there’s no accountability, no objective facts? How do you do that? You can’t.”

At campaign stops, Hobbs stressed the stakes of this year’s election — which, due to the GOP’s wild claims about election fraud, has given way to armed vigilantes patrolling dropboxes in Arizona’s largest county.

Finchem has defended the vigilantes, and, as secretary of state alongside Lake, would enjoy sweeping authority over election administration. He would also be the de facto lieutenant governor in a state that doesn’t have one, meaning he would take over for Lake if she were tapped to join Trump’s presidential ticket in 2024.

Even COVIDiocy:

... “And I’ll tell you what, she loves Anthony Fauci ... she wants to force our children to get a vaccine of experimental shots in order to get an education. I’ll tell you what, when I’m your governor, we will not make our kids guinea pigs. We will not force them to get that shot,” she said to a round of applause. The vast majority of scientific research on vaccines shows they are safe for children....

It’s not all rosy for Lake, who is widely considered too extreme for Arizona moderates and independents. Chuck Coughlin, a GOP consultant whose firm conducts statewide polling, suspects a large number of undecided voters will break for Democrats.

“I just don’t know — if you’re not a Lake voter at the outset, how do you become one?” Coughlin said. “Because you know she’s there. You cannot miss the freight train running by your door. There’s no narrative that’s like, come on over, I’m really OK.” ...

Fingers crossed, but "We may be doomed."

The Brownshirts are here:

Armed Individuals In Tactical Gear Are Showing Up At Arizona Ballot Boxes
At least three run-ins have been documented at a Maricopa County drop box during early voting.

[GoCubsGo]

It's mind boggling that as bad and loony the right wing candidates are the Democrats manage to counter with worse milquetoast incompetent picks.

I know Democrats generally don't turn out in the midterms, but these should be slam dunks.

[Vrede too]

It's mind boggling that as bad and loony the right wing candidates are the Democrats manage to counter with worse milquetoast incompetent picks.

I know Democrats generally don't turn out in the midterms, but these should be slam dunks.

RCP Average 10/11 - 10/25: Lake (R) 49.0, Hobbs (D) 45.8
Spread Lake +3.2

Even in the wildest best case scenario it's tragic that the races are even close.

[neoplacebo]

I like that part about how "...the sun set over the dusty, animal fragrant ranch" as Marsha was speaking. I could virtually see it and smell it as if I were there.

[billy.pilgrim]

If repugs win

https://open.substack.com/pub/thomhartm ... dium=email

"If you were born and live in Japan, you can expect to live to 85 years old. For South Korea average lifespan is 83, as are Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, Israel, and Australia.

It’s 82 for Italy, Spain, Ireland, France, Finland, and New Zealand.

Cuba (!) and Panama are 79; Uruguay and Croatia are 78.

A total of 61 countries have average lifespans of 78 years or older, ranging from Singapore’s 84 to Estonia’s 78.

And then there’s the United States. Our average lifespan comes in at a paltry 77 years, along with Iran, Tunisia, and Morocco.

And it’s entirely because of Republican policies.

That’s the main conclusion of a new study published this week in PLOS One, one of the world’s leading publications of peer-reviewed science across a wide variety of fields.

The report, rigorously scientific, was funded by the National Institute on Aging (NIA), a division of the United States’ National Institutes of Health (NIH).

They concluded that if, in 2019, “liberals” (Democrats) had run all the Red states, then 171,030 fewer Americans would have died that year. On the other hand, if “conservatives” (Republicans) had succeeded in imposing their healthcare, tax, labor, and gun policies on the Blue states, there would have been an additional 217,635 dead Americans.

This follows the Brookings Institution study published last year that concluded Republican anti-mask and pro-snake-oil (hydroxychloroquine, ivermectin, etc.) policies unnecessarily killed 400,000 Americans during the first year of the pandemic.

That study, along with a report from Congress detailing Trump’s incompetent malicious response to the pandemic, provoked psychologist Mary Trump to refer to her uncle as a “mass murderer.”

Add to that the Republican anti-vax propaganda and, as The New York Times reports, GOP policies are continuing to kill Americans:

“Since Dec. 1, when health officials announced the first Omicron case in the United States, the share of Americans who have been killed by the coronavirus is at least 63 percent higher than in any of these other large, wealthy nations, according to a New York Times analysis of mortality figures.”

And the majority of those dying are Republican followers. Not the Republican politicians and multimillionaire TV commentators, who are all well-vaccinated, but the people who listen to them, watch them on television, and believe their lies about vaccines and masks.

None of this is new and none should be surprising."

[Vrede too]

If repugs win

https://open.substack.com/pub/thomhartm ... -a-popular

... A total of 61 countries have average lifespans of 78 years or older, ranging from Singapore’s 84 to Estonia’s 78.

And then there’s the United States. Our average lifespan comes in at a paltry 77 years, along with Iran, Tunisia, and Morocco.

And it’s entirely because of Republican policies....

They concluded that if, in 2019, “liberals” (Democrats) had run all the Red states, then 171,030 fewer Americans would have died that year. On the other hand, if “conservatives” (Republicans) had succeeded in imposing their healthcare, tax, labor, and gun policies on the Blue states, there would have been an additional 217,635 dead Americans....

None of this is new and none should be surprising."

I linked an article about this first study:
viewtopic.php?t=31&p=175693#p175693
However, you posted more detail - Good. One addition - it's also more liberal policies on the environment and specifically tobacco taxes that are associated with lower mortality. No surprise.

[billy.pilgrim]

If repugs win

https://open.substack.com/pub/thomhartm ... -a-popular

... A total of 61 countries have average lifespans of 78 years or older, ranging from Singapore’s 84 to Estonia’s 78.

And then there’s the United States. Our average lifespan comes in at a paltry 77 years, along with Iran, Tunisia, and Morocco.

And it’s entirely because of Republican policies....

They concluded that if, in 2019, “liberals” (Democrats) had run all the Red states, then 171,030 fewer Americans would have died that year. On the other hand, if “conservatives” (Republicans) had succeeded in imposing their healthcare, tax, labor, and gun policies on the Blue states, there would have been an additional 217,635 dead Americans....

None of this is new and none should be surprising."

I linked an article about this first study:
viewtopic.php?t=31&p=175693#p175693
However, you posted more detail - Good. One addition - it's also more liberal policies on the environment and specifically tobacco taxes that are associated with lower mortality. No surprise.

And poor backward Cuba beat us by a couple of years, even though they have been isolated by their big strong neighbor for 50+ years and who once was their biggest trading partner.