5 myths that the 2022 midterms demolished
... Despite the howling economic headwinds, it’s entirely possible that Joe Biden could become the first Democratic president since John F. Kennedy in 1962 not only to keep control of the Senate but actually expand his majority there. Democrats held onto House seats in Rhode Island, Virginia, Michigan and Ohio that Republicans were sure they could flip. They clawed back control of state legislatures. They ran the table on ballot measures to preserve abortion rights. And they could be on their way to winning the governor’s mansions in four of the five states that swung from former President Donald Trump to Biden in 2020.
All in all, it made for one of the most surprising elections in recent U.S. history. As the dust begins to settle, here are five myths about American politics that 2022’s dizzying midterms totally demolished.
Myth: Candidates don’t matter
... If the election had solely been a referendum on the (Democratic) status quo, Biden’s party would have been on track to suffer the cataclysmic midterm losses of Harry Truman in 1946 (54 seats), Bill Clinton in 1994 (53 seats), Barack Obama in 2010 (64 seats) and Trump in 2018 (42 seats).
Instead, Democrats are predicted to lose only about 10 seats, give or take. If California’s outstanding contests break their way, they might even keep control of the House — a previously unthinkable result.
Why? Because at the end of the day, elections are always a choice. And in far too many cases, the GOP alternative seems to have struck a lot of potential Republican voters as unacceptable....
Consider Pennsylvania, where the Republican gubernatorial wannabe Doug Mastriano — a guy who actually gathered outside the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, to “Stop the steal” — lost to Democrat Josh Shapiro by 14 points.
And consider the Democratic sweep in Michigan — a state Trump won in 2016 but where this year’s extremist slate of Republican election deniers lost races for governor, secretary of state, three key House contests and control of both halves of the state Legislature.
... the group that ultimately tipped the scales was independents. In 2010 (Obama’s first midterm), independents sided with Republicans by a 56% to 37% margin; in 2018 (Trump’s one and only midterm), they sided with Democrats by 54% to 42%. Independents almost always flock to the opposition — and as they go, so goes the election.
But this year, indies shattered the historical pattern and broke for the president’s party, 49% to 47%; the Democratic margin among independents was even larger in the Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania Senate races. All signs suggest that they weren’t rewarding Biden Democrats so much as recoiling from Trump Republicans.
It shouldn’t have been close, but apparently more MAGA was worse than more of the same.
Myth: Trump has the 2024 Republican nomination sewn up ...
) was controversial at the time. I'd say that it was hugely successful and will lead to more of the same in the future.
Apparently, a plurality is sufficient in OR.
Could be, but wouldn't seem to be a sustainable business model.
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