2024 Elections

[Vrede too]

Not sure if anyone else has done this calculation - If Manchin runs he, Biden (81 today) and Dolt .45 are collectively older than the Constitution of the United States.

I set this article aside while doing other things:

Joe Manchin floats Mitt Romney as a potential running mate as he weighs a presidential bid
Updated Thu, February 15, 2024 at 7:04 PM EST

Good thing I didn't bother since I now find:

Sen. Joe Manchin will not run for president
Updated Fri, February 16, 2024 at 1:20 PM EST

West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin will not run for president, after debating for months whether to launch a third-party bid.

The man, 76, is nothing if not decisive

... Just a day before he announced he would not run, Manchin had floated the idea of appearing on the November ballot with Utah Sen. Mitt Romney, who was the 2012 Republican nominee. Romney dismissed the hypothetical hours later, saying he had no plans to run for president again.

Opps. Ftr, Mitten is weeks away from 77. Geriatrics are deciding our fate.

Manchin and No Labels both had separately emphasized that they would not be “spoilers” in the 2024 election and would not launch a bid they believed they could not win, or that would cost President Joe Biden the election.

Pffft, he never had a path to victory and was always going to be a spoiler for one team or the other.

No Labels said in a statement shortly after Manchin's announcement that it is still considering launching a unity ticket and is "speaking with several exceptional leaders" about the opportunity. The organization previously set a deadline of mid-March to make the decision.

Manchin waited long enough to wreck No Labels' fantasies, awww.

... The centrist Democrat announced in November plans to retire from the Senate, after serving 14 years. He would have faced an uphill re-election battle in his increasingly Republican home state, which voted for former President Donald Trump in 2020 by a roughly 40% margin.

Buh-bye DINO, don't let the door hit you . . .

[Vrede too]

I sure wish that all of the RepuQ wannabes had been tearing into TRE45QN like Christie was, and that Nikki Heat had started swinging earlier. Still, it's good to see this . . . at a Faux Noise town hall in South Carolina!





However:



Lock him up!

[GoCubsGo]

Has anyone ever mentioned she's a pandering flake?

[Vrede too]

Has anyone ever mentioned she's a pandering flake?

"pandering" for sure. Also a TRE45QN-stained disgusting misogynist con, but why do you say "flake"?


Reminder for all:

Some welcome perspective on our national insanity.

[GoCubsGo]

Has anyone ever mentioned she's a pandering flake?

"pandering" for sure. Also a TRE45QN-stained disgusting misogynist con, but why do you say "flake"?

She's got a bit of a flip flopping history.

https://youtu.be/RnurVBtJFqE?si=fN86-IdG72pY6emZ

https://www.msnbc.com/top-stories/lates ... rcna131580

[Vrede too]

Has anyone ever mentioned she's a pandering flake?

"pandering" for sure. Also a TRE45QN-stained disgusting misogynist con, but why do you say "flake"?

She's got a bit of a flip flopping history.

https://youtu.be/RnurVBtJFqE?si=fN86-IdG72pY6emZ

The first one is iffy. There's a difference between govt requiring name verification by social media and the govt, itself, collecting names. Otherwise, definitely flaky, thanks.

https://www.msnbc.com/top-stories/lates ... rcna131580

Yeah, a TRE45QN pardon, which I also posted about above, is absolutely "pandering", but is it flaky? Otoh, her "disastrous answer to a question about what caused the Civil War" was both pandering to white supremacists and flaky for being so royally dumb, especially for a former SC Gov.

[GoCubsGo]

Has anyone ever mentioned she's a pandering flake?

"pandering" for sure. Also a TRE45QN-stained disgusting misogynist con, but why do you say "flake"?

She's got a bit of a flip flopping history.

https://youtu.be/RnurVBtJFqE?si=fN86-IdG72pY6emZ

The first one is iffy. There's a difference between govt requiring name verification by social media and the govt, itself, collecting names. Otherwise, definitely flaky, thanks.

https://www.msnbc.com/top-stories/lates ... rcna131580

Yeah, a TRE45QN pardon, which I also posted about above, is absolutely "pandering", but is it flaky? Otoh, her "disastrous answer to a question about what caused the Civil War" was both pandering to white supremacists and flaky for being so royally dumb, especially for a former SC Gov.

Not to mention that the nutjobs love to try and portray themselves as the law and order party.

Except when it comes to law.

Or order.

[GoCubsGo]

Ruh roh.

[Vrede too]

Ruh roh.

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/stat ... 4924540037

Internal SC polling must still suck. Get back in, Chris. No one can call you a spoiler now. Some Repub MUST be out there trashing TRE45QN for the good of the nation and world.

[Vrede too]

Ruh roh.

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/stat ... 4924540037

Internal SC polling does still suck, 63-35 according to one poll. She's doing her best to minimize the damage by announcing now that she's in it through Super Tuesday, supposedly "regardless" knowing full well that regardless = getting stomped on Sat.

Super Tuesday including Alabama, California & NC in 2 weeks. Should I vote for Nikki Heat because she's "better" or Dolt .45 because he's easier to beat? I know, he'll be the nominee, but I'd still like to do the "right" thing.

Washington March 12.
Florida & IL March 19.
Maryland May 14
Montana and New Jersey June 4
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Repu ... s_calendar

[O Really]

Not that your vote will matter, but if you're doing so for some personal satisfaction I'd suggest voting for Nikki Heat as every vote she gets pisses off T-rump.

[Vrede too]

Not that your vote will matter, but if you're doing so for some personal satisfaction I'd suggest voting for Nikki Heat as every vote she gets pisses off T-rump.

Good point

Ron DeSantis
Nikki Haley
Asa Hutchinson
Vivek Ramaswamy
Donald J. Trump
Ryan Binkley
Chris Christie
No Preference

Maybe I'll give Chris some love, or No Preference. Otoh, our 74 delegates "will be allocated on a proportional basis." Nikki Heat's the better bet for that.

Ryan Binkley?

[GoCubsGo]

Not that your vote will matter, but if you're doing so for some personal satisfaction I'd suggest voting for Nikki Heat as every vote she gets pisses off T-rump.

Exactly that! You've got to give her a little credit though, I have a major announcement and then give a campaign speech that all the networks covered.

Maybe she'll be able to raise some more money and stay in the race for a bit longer.

[Vrede too]

"No Preference" is an option on both the Dem and GQP presidential ballots, but not for any other down ballot races That's not very patriotic. It's Joe's only opponent on the Dem ballot. Ut-oh.

[GoCubsGo]

"No Preference" is an option on both the Dem and GQP presidential ballots, but not for any other down ballot races That's not very patriotic. It's Joe's only opponent on the Dem ballot. Ut-oh.

To the best of my memory I voted Republican in the primaries to have a voice in local politics. Usually to vote for the candidate that I thought would do the least harm locally and vote against the presidential favorite.

[Vrede too]

To the best of my memory I voted Republican in the primaries to have a voice in local politics. Usually to vote for the candidate that I thought would do the least harm locally and vote against the presidential favorite.

That's definitely the case for me, lots more options on the GQP ballot, lots.
Where there's a serious Dem candidate I'll vote for the worst RepuQ and cross my fingers.
Where there's no opponent or no serious Dem candidate I'll vote for the best RepuQ.

There's one main reason I'm voting RepuQ this year - Gov. Thanks to severe gerrymandering it's nearly certain that the GQP will still run the Leg. So, our only hope to stifle them is to elect AG Josh Stein.
RepuQs:

NC Governor
(You may vote for ONE)

Dale R. Folwell - never heard of him, likely irrelevant.
Bill Graham - wealthy businessman, has been running bunches of ads calling Mark Robinson an antisemitic wingnut.
Aside: Great rock history name - Bill Graham (promoter). Likely no relation.
Mark Robinson - Lt Gov, antisemitic, complete christofascist wingnut - conspiracy theories, etc. Has been leading the polls.

I'm voting for Robinson. Any sane Dem would beat him, especially an uber-credible one like Stein.

[Vrede too]

Not that your vote will matter, but if you're doing so for some personal satisfaction I'd suggest voting for Nikki Heat as every vote she gets pisses off T-rump.

Exactly that! You've got to give her a little credit though, I have a major announcement and then give a campaign speech that all the networks covered.

Maybe she'll be able to raise some more money and stay in the race for a bit longer.

Good point.

Haley paraphrased: Alexei Navalny sacrificed himself for democracy. Trump tried to sacrifice Mike Pence to prevent democracy.
Ooo, that's bringing the (Nikki) Heat

[Vrede too]

There's one main reason I'm voting RepuQ this year - Gov. Thanks to severe gerrymandering it's nearly certain that the GQP will still run the Leg. So, our only hope to stifle them is to elect AG Josh Stein.
RepuQs:

NC Governor
(You may vote for ONE)

Dale R. Folwell - never heard of him, likely irrelevant.
Bill Graham - wealthy businessman, has been running bunches of ads calling Mark Robinson an antisemitic wingnut.
Aside: Great rock history name - Bill Graham (promoter). Likely no relation.
Mark Robinson - Lt Gov, antisemitic, complete christofascist wingnut - conspiracy theories, etc. Has been leading the polls.

I'm voting for Robinson. Any sane Dem would beat him, especially an uber-credible one like Stein.

AG Stein is still certain to be the Dem nominee:
RCP Average 2/9 - 2/16 Stein +41.0
He had it locked up over a year ago.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josh_Stei ... l_campaign

Despite the onslaught of negative ads from Graham, christofascist wingnut Robinson is still doing surprisingly well:
RCP Average 1/5 - 2/16 Robinson +34.3
Damn, RepuQs are sad.

This is scary:

Robinson vs. Stein
East Carolina U. 2/9 - 2/12
Robinson (R) 41
Stein (D) 41
Tie

Hoping those 18% undecided swing to Josh once he exposes how fucking crazy and dangerous Robinson is.

[O Really]

So California has a free-for-all primary where all parties are on one ballot, anybody for can vote for anybody on the ballot, and the top two, regardless of party, run against each other in the general. It's not that unusual for two candidates in the same party to run against each other. About half of California voters are Dem, about a quarter are repugs and about a quarter are unaffiliated.

In the Senate race, the leading Dem candidates are Adam Schiff and Katie Porter. One of those two will win the Senate seat. But there are 7 or so other candidates running, none of whom has any snowball's chance to win, but the leading repug is Steve Garvey (yes, that Steve Garvey). Garvey can't win, but his voters can control the final vote if he's out of it. So Schiff doesn't really want to be running against Porter because even though he's substantially ahead of her now, if it's just the two of them head to head, she'll probably get a lot more votes from repugs who are still mad at Schiff for leading Trump's impeachment as well as other stuff. So Porter could win. BUT - if Garvey is second, then Schiff can start ordering Senate office drapes because no Dem and not many unaffils are going to vote for right-wing Trumper Garvey. So Schiff is running ads touting Garvey as "Too Conservative for California" and talking about how he is "surging in the polls" and "could tilt the Senate to Trump's agenda even affecting California" yada. The idea to get him up into second place seems to be working so far, and Katie thinks it's dirty politics.

It's also pretty clear that in general, repugs do a much better job of hitting issues important to their voters - at least in part because they're willing to say anything, make up anything, if it's what their voters want to hear. So we've got repugs running for Congress promising stuff that not only do they have no chance of doing but in some cases it's not even under authority of Congress. Like California gas tax. And we've got repugs running for state Senate promising to build a big beautiful wall. None of them will actually win, but they'll get a lot more votes than they would if they told some semblance of truth or stuck to issues they could affect. Which brings me to Katie Porter. I like Katie, but if she asked the 12 million registered dems what their top three issue were, I'm thinking not more than 3 or 4 of them would say "we'll vote for Katie because she doesn't take corporate PAC money." Yet that's how she leads off her ads. I doubt that other than Vrede and some of his friends, not many would include "hold bankers accountable" yet that's highlighted too. And Schiff's over there in his talking about "good jobs", "more affordable housing" and addressing homeless problem - all good topics, but not something a Senator has much impact on. Meanwhile, without any understanding of what the laws are or what might be a solution, repugs are winning votes with "border border border".

[Vrede too]

So California has a free-for-all primary where all parties are on one ballot, anybody for can vote for anybody on the ballot, and the top two, regardless of party, run against each other in the general. It's not that unusual for two candidates in the same party to run against each other. About half of California voters are Dem, about a quarter are repugs and about a quarter are unaffiliated.

You poor thing. If your team "loses", you're saddled with US Sen Katie Porter. Awww.

Funny. Actually, "hold bankers accountable" is pretty important to all of us as dry as it sounds.

Here's the RCP batch of polls, they don't do an average:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/ ... en-primary
Just looking at the ones from this year:
Schiff 21-28%
Garvey 13-22%
Porter 13-17%
Lee 7-9%

Pundits and advisors get so wonky. Justifying their jobs, I guess. I wouldn't assume that Repug voters will vote for Katie out of revenge against Schiff. She got as famous for shredding ex-PINO officials as she did bankers and other corporate chieftains. They can also easily find that she's more overtly progressive, though in reality it may be zero or minor differences on most issues. They're also the sexist Repugs to consider. Schiff should just campaign on his many strengths and not attempt to game the system. People may dislike him for trying.

It's superficial, but I like Katie as much for her style as anything. Nothing against Schiff. This unassuming teacher (which she is) lookalike whips out a whiteboard and a fish and smacks the shit out of assholes with each of them. Then, there are the demographics - yep, I'm sexist and ageist.

Otoh, Schiff has paid his dues - nearly a quarter century in Congress, and suffering the MAGA hatred that you refer to. He's earned a shot, no one can deny that.

In a perfect world I'd be rooting for Barbara Lee - female, progressive, longer congressional service than Schiff, Black, from Oakland, AND I voted for her in 2000. However, she'd be 78 on assuming office, 84 at the end of her term. Too old, sadly. Where will her voters go in the general? Could be split

So, likely Schiff. If so, Porter has years to take over the House, get a Cabinet or top advisor job, or run any number of orgs.
Slim chance it'll be Porter. If so, Schiff gets to choose between some new public service or retiring. Neither is awful.
Thank goodness there are oases like CA where these are the options.