Face-Eating Leopards

[Vrede too]

Even with racial gerrymandering.

Good thing the Senate can't be gerrymandered.

Kalshi has it 228-200 dems with 7 undecided.

https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election/

Lately, IIRC, the betting platforms have a better track record than the "experts".

The Senate can be voter suppressed, though. Gaining 4 seats is still a high hurdle.

Kalshi: Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
Republican Party 56%
Democratic Party 43%
https://www.270towin.com/prediction-mar ... elections/

[GoCubsGo]

Even with racial gerrymandering.

Good thing the Senate can't be gerrymandered.

Kalshi has it 228-200 dems with 7 undecided.

https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election/

Lately, IIRC, the betting platforms have a better track record than the "experts".

The Senate can be voter suppressed, though. Gaining 4 seats is still a high hurdle.

Kalshi: Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
Republican Party 56%
Democratic Party 43%
https://www.270towin.com/prediction-mar ... elections/

Weird, their map basically has it as a toss up.

https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-election/

[Vrede too]

Even with racial gerrymandering.

Good thing the Senate can't be gerrymandered.

Kalshi has it 228-200 dems with 7 undecided.

https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election/

Lately, IIRC, the betting platforms have a better track record than the "experts".

The Senate can be voter suppressed, though. Gaining 4 seats is still a high hurdle.

Kalshi: Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
Republican Party 56%
Democratic Party 43%
https://www.270towin.com/prediction-mar ... elections/

Weird, their map basically has it as a toss up.

https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-election/

The 270towin map and Kalshi Prediction Markets are different things. Plus 50-50 is not a toss up. It's a win for the GQP thanks to the Just Deranged tiebreaker.

[O Really]

50-50 is a win for the repugs, but wouldn't it be nice to only have to get one repug senator to go rogue. Only one - and somebody up there will have either just got elected or has maybe four years to go and no intent to run again and they might just vote with the Dems on some issues - at least some of the most egregious ones.

[Vrede too]

50-50 is a win for the repugs, but wouldn't it be nice to only have to get one repug senator to go rogue. Only one - and somebody up there will have either just got elected or has maybe four years to go and no intent to run again and they might just vote with the Dems on some issues - at least some of the most egregious ones.

Not gaf Murkowski will be Queen of America.

[GoCubsGo]

The 270towin map and Kalshi Prediction Markets are different things. Plus 50-50 is not a toss up. It's a win for the GQP thanks to the Just Deranged tiebreaker.

Did you look at the Kalshi map from the drop down?

[Vrede too]

The 270towin map and Kalshi Prediction Markets are different things. Plus 50-50 is not a toss up. It's a win for the GQP thanks to the Just Deranged tiebreaker.

Did you look at the Kalshi map from the drop down?

Cool, but Kalshians are still betting on the GQP, slightly.

[supesalemgr2]

Only those who don't pay attention do not know Jim Clyburn and Bennie in Thompson are in the house because of gerrymandered district.

[O Really]

I'd like to see ALL states re-districted, with the work done by independent, preferably international, statisticians and demographers without any political interference. Starting rules would include making each district contain approximately the same number of people, physically associated, and respecting natural historical boundaries such as rivers, etc. Then let the chips fall as they may.

[supesalemgr2]

I'd like to see ALL states re-districted, with the work done by independent, preferably international, statisticians and demographers without any political interference. Starting rules would include making each district contain approximately the same number of people, physically associated, and respecting natural historical boundaries such as rivers, etc. Then let the chips fall as they may.

I agree with you this would be a good plan. The challenge would be securing that "independent" entity.I do believe this is a responsibility of individual states. Demographics are in constant evolution. One just needs to look at the city of ATL. I saw neighborhoods change of majority White to majority Black in the 60's and 70's. Now, many of these neighborhoods are changing back.

[O Really]

I agree with you this would be a good plan. The challenge would be securing that "independent" entity.I do believe this is a responsibility of individual states. Demographics are in constant evolution. One just needs to look at the city of ATL. I saw neighborhoods change of majority White to majority Black in the 60's and 70's. Now, many of these neighborhoods are changing back.

Wouldn't be all that hard. Both Canada and England use independent commissions to set their equivalents of districts, so it's not like it has to be a reinvention of the wheel.

Anyway, it's a state responsibility only because we've historically called it so. Wouldn't it be nice not to have a mishmash hodgepodge of corruption in the most fundamental of democracy's structure?

[supesalemgr2]

I agree with you this would be a good plan. The challenge would be securing that "independent" entity.I do believe this is a responsibility of individual states. Demographics are in constant evolution. One just needs to look at the city of ATL. I saw neighborhoods change of majority White to majority Black in the 60's and 70's. Now, many of these neighborhoods are changing back.

Wouldn't be all that hard. Both Canada and England use independent commissions to set their equivalents of districts, so it's not like it has to be a reinvention of the wheel.

Anyway, it's a state responsibility only because we've historically called it so. Wouldn't it be nice not to have a mishmash hodgepodge of corruption in the most fundamental of democracy's structure?

You are well aware of my convictions about the federal government. I am not comfortable with a federal entity determining local political boundaries.

[O Really]

You are well aware of my convictions about the federal government. I am not comfortable with a federal entity determining local political boundaries.

Well, I would have thought so, but given your ardent support for Trump's trampling over historical states' rights, I couldn't be sure. So how's this: continue with each state creating its own map, but being required to do so with independent technicians that have met an extensive list of qualifications.

[supesalemgr2]

You are well aware of my convictions about the federal government. I am not comfortable with a federal entity determining local political boundaries.

Well, I would have thought so, but given your ardent support for Trump's trampling over historical states' rights, I couldn't be sure. So how's this: continue with each state creating its own map, but being required to do so with independent technicians that have met an extensive list of qualifications.

Theoretically that sounds reasonable. However, in reality could we expect a bunch of politicians to be reasonable?

[O Really]

Politicians generally do what keeps them in office. That's not unreasonable. Unfortunately, who keeps them in office now is too often the corporations that own them and not necessarily their constituents' actual needs/preferences.

[supesalemgr2]

Politicians generally do what keeps them in office. That's not unreasonable. Unfortunately, who keeps them in office now is too often the corporations that own them and not necessarily their constituents' actual needs/preferences.

Yep.Up to the folks to pay attention.

[O Really]

Yep.Up to the folks to pay attention.

Yeah, well, good luck with that.

[Vrede too]

Well, I would have thought so, but given your ardent support for Trump's trampling over historical states' rights, I couldn't be sure. So how's this: continue with each state creating its own map, but being required to do so with independent technicians that have met an extensive list of qualifications.

For example, SoupySales is an enthusiastic advocate for the SAVE Act, which would impose FEDERAL election conditions on the states. It seems that his "'convictions' about the federal government" are malleable.
viewtopic.php?p=224762#p224762

Remember when cons used to oppose Big Brother's unfunded mandates and abrogation of states' rights? No longer, the Cultists support whatever Dear Leader and Faux Noise tell them to.

SoupySales is also a rabid cheerleader for immigration enforcement which has led to the militarization of DC, LA, Minneapolis and Portland.
viewtopic.php?p=219680#p219680

Looks like Trump is instead deploying California national guardsman to Portland against California's wishes

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 39742.html

President Donald Trump is sending 300 California National Guard members to Portland, a move that comes shortly after a federal judge blocked his administration from using Oregon’s own guard in the city, California Governor Gavin Newsom said.

Basically forcefully pitting states against one another now. How does the country survive the next four years?

Imagine Californian troops being deployed to South Carolina against our wishes. Or Texan troops being deployed to NYC? Or NY national guardsman being deployed to Texas? All against the wishes of state governments. This latest action is the first salvo leading towards something like that. Where are the small government, states' rights, individuals in all of this? That's right, it was all bluster.

President Trump is actively trying to rip apart the country.

SoupySales "'convictions' about the federal government" are again malleable.

This whole midterm redistricting crisis arose because SPOTUS is imposing his FEDERAL will upon the states.
viewtopic.php?p=218027#p218027

I read even Abbott was not in favour of redistricting until Trump told him to. Dickless cowards.

Not a coward:

Maryland Democratic Governor Keeping Options Open When It Comes To Redistricting
Gov. Wes Moore compared Trump's gerrymandering push to when he tried to overturn the 2020 election.

... “This is what people hate about politics in the first place,” Moore said on Sunday’s episode of “Face the Nation.” “The fact that the president of the United States, very similar to what he did in Georgia, where he called up a series of voter registrants and said I need you to find me more votes — we’re watching the same thing now, where he’s calling up legislators around the country and saying I need you to find me more congressional districts.”

... Moore said on “Face the Nation” that there shouldn’t be situations where politicians are choosing their voters instead of voters choosing their elected officials.

“We need to be able to have fair maps and we also need to make sure that if the president of the United States is putting his finger on the scale to try to manipulate elections because he knows that his policies cannot win in a ballot box, then it behooves each and every one of us to be able to keep all options on the table to ensure that the voters’ voices can actually be heard and we can have maps,” Moore said.

... “But if Wes Moore needs help, like Gavin Newscum did in L.A., I will send in the ‘troops,’ which is being done in nearby DC, and quickly clean up the Crime,” Trump wrote in part.

According to Baltimore’s mayor, the city has seen a historic decrease in violent crime this year. Moore said on “Face the Nation” that he is against Trump deploying the National Guard to Maryland, saying it’s not sustainable and it’s unconstitutional.

“It’s a direct violation of the 10th Amendment and for a party that talks about states rights, it’s amazing how they’re having such a big government approach in the way they’re conducting public safety,” Moore said.

He added that it’s a distraction from Trump’s economic policies, which are making everything more expensive and harder for everyday Americans.

“We know we have work to do,” Moore said. “If one person does not feel safe in their neighborhood, that’s one too many. But we also know what tactics actually work and what tactics are just theatrics.” ...

MoreMooreMore!

Without the FEDERAL Cult Leader we would not be having these arguments for another 5 years. Has SoupySales been objecting to Moron Don's actions?

MAGA also detests sanctuary laws, which merely assert local and states' rights to not be forced to do the feds' jobs for them.
viewtopic.php?p=216881#p216881

Federal judge tosses Trump administration’s ‘sanctuary city’ lawsuit against Illinois

A federal judge on Friday threw out a Trump administration lawsuit seeking to block sanctuary laws in Illinois that limit local law enforcement from cooperating with federal immigration authorities.

In her ruling, Judge Lindsay C. Jenkins said that the Tenth Amendment, which protects people from federal government overreach, shielded the decision of local law enforcement to avoid collaboration with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and other immigration agencies.

“It would allow the federal government to commandeer States under the guise of intergovernmental immunity—the exact type of direct regulation of states barred by the Tenth Amendment,” Jenkins wrote of the suit, which named Illinois, Chicago and a series of local officials as defendants....

Hero

MAGA bigots love oppressive Big Brother and unfunded mandates, and despise states' rights and the Constitution.

Then, there's MAGA fiscal policy, with child victims.
viewtopic.php?p=210946#p210946

Trump Has Found A Way To Punish Blue States — And Kids Are In The Crosshairs
It's a move that fits into his agenda from multiple angles.

Since President Donald Trump went back to the White House in January, his administration has been on a frenzied and haphazard tour gutting existing government agencies, flouting norms and attempting to force conservative values across the government. Much of this effort has, ostensibly, been laser-focused on ending or curtailing diversity, equity and inclusion efforts.

... The message from the Trump administration is clear: State’s rights for some, federal government oversight for everyone else.

DoJ has filed many suits against local and state institutions in pursuit of White supremacy.

More on sanctuary:
viewtopic.php?p=208056#p208056

Big Brother lashing out when locales reject the unfunded mandate of enforcing federal immigration law for the slacker feds:

New AG Pam Bondi uses her first day in office to ban federal funds from heading to 'Sanctuary Cities‘

I remember when cons used to believe in states' rights and local control. Nowadays their bigotry is more important to them than anything else. Look at US and international law-rejecting Jasmine and SoupySales. They're more fascist than con.

Localities are till free to do as they please. It is their choice if they desire to continue receiving federal funds.

Got it, SoupySales would be fine with it if, for example, Dem-controlled feds withheld disaster assistance and other money from red states and counties because they do red things. Yuck.

The discussion moved on to immigration in general.

It has obviously escaped Vrede that folks who are just here to work are not being sought out by ICE.

Shirley you can't be serious.

All of those Home Depot and school door raids were to pick up "the worst of the worst." More SoupySales advocacy for FEDERALLY imposed White supremacy follows.

That's just since the inauguration. More examples of, in O Really's words, "Trump's trampling over historical states' rights" extend back to at least 2015. It's an imperial presidency*.

[O Really]

If people were paying attention as Supes would like, they would never vote for anyone on the basis that they had never been in politics any more than they would hire an accountant who had never studied accounting.

There's a guy running for some congresscritter seat around here whose ads are derisive of the fact that there are 170 lawyers in Congress. Imagine that! Having lawyers hold an office whose job is literally to make laws. What a novel idea. Anyway, 170 lawyers is not that many. Walmart probably has more than that and they farm out most of their work. Morgan and Morgan has 1000 running around chasing ambulances all over the US.

[GoCubsGo]

That's a surprisingly low number of lawyers, I'm surprised.



Has anyone noticed that MAGAts actually hate states rights?