2026 Elections

[neoplacebo]

Hey peeps!

I have no idea how Tuesday’s results will turn out. I’m actually pretty ambivalent about it. Once again, I am sitting this one out. Although I am still fiercely conservative, I think a Democrat takeover on Congress wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. Quite frankly, Trump has brought all of this on himself.

Have a great weekend!

Hey, there. Good to hear you're still around.

[Vrede too]

One to watch:

Alabama Republicans thought they had drawn a safe US House seat. A Black congressman had other ideas

Gerrymander fail? Alabama! This blue wave may be a tsunami.

[Vrede too]

Wtf They're running smear ads here on the Dem for Senate . . . in KS! It's too late to even be thinking of fundraising from Carolinians. What a waste, no wonder I'm hearing that people are sick of the ads.

EDIT: They also LIE about what 1 Senator or even a Dem majority can do.

TX Senate ads smearing the Dem, too.
Also, Dem ad smearing the KS GQP Gov opponent.
Plus, lying Iowa Senate ads smearing the Dem.
Also, Dem ad smearing the Iowa Senate opponent.
Dem ad smearing Vivek (Ohio).
Several more.

Again, Wtf

[supesalemgr2]

Wtf They're running smear ads here on the Dem for Senate . . . in KS! It's too late to even be thinking of fundraising from Carolinians. What a waste, no wonder I'm hearing that people are sick of the ads.

EDIT: They also LIE about what 1 Senator or even a Dem majority can do.

TX Senate ads smearing the Dem, too.
Also, Dem ad smearing the KS GQP Gov opponent.
Plus, lying Iowa Senate ads smearing the Dem.
Also, Dem ad smearing the Iowa Senate opponent.
Dem ad smearing Vivek (Ohio).
Several more.

Again, Wtf

Producers of the ads have determined that the candidates will approve any ads that get eyes. Truth is not an issue anymore.

[neoplacebo]

Truth left through the back door when trump came slithering along ten years ago.

[Vrede too]

Wtf They're running smear ads here on the Dem for Senate . . . in KS! It's too late to even be thinking of fundraising from Carolinians. What a waste, no wonder I'm hearing that people are sick of the ads.

EDIT: They also LIE about what 1 Senator or even a Dem majority can do.

TX Senate ads smearing the Dem, too.
Also, Dem ad smearing the KS GQP Gov opponent.
Plus, lying Iowa Senate ads smearing the Dem.
Also, Dem ad smearing the Iowa Senate opponent.
Dem ad smearing Vivek (Ohio).
Several more.

Again, Wtf

Producers of the ads have determined that the candidates will approve any ads that get eyes. Truth is not an issue anymore.

I expect to see negative ads, whether truthful or not. I don't expect a barrage of ads for or against KS, Iowa, Ohio and other non-regional candidates. Ftr, some were "independent" ads without the candidates' approval tagline.

[GoCubsGo]

Cautiously optimistic.

[Vrede too]

Cautiously optimistic.

https://x.com/gtconway3d/status/2116878229722292509

Voter rolls ID race?

[GoCubsGo]

Cautiously optimistic.

https://x.com/gtconway3d/status/2116878229722292509

Voter rolls ID race?

Good question.

Not Per Se.


There is, however, an important distinction.
1. Race: Texas does not require applicants to identify their race or ethnicity when registering to vote. The race/ethnicity question on the federal registration form is marked optional and left blank under Texas instructions.
2. Hispanic surname indicator: Texas does offer a voter-registration data file with a flag identifying voters whose surnames are classified as Hispanic. This is a surname-based indicator, not a verified racial or ethnic identification.
3. Other information: Public voter files can include names, addresses, dates of birth, gender, voter identification numbers, and voting history.
The important distinction: Although Texas does not collect race as a voter-registration field, political organizations and researchers can use names, addresses, census demographics, and other information to estimate individual voters' race.
Those estimates are not the same as race information recorded by the state.
You can see the actual data fields in the Texas Secretary of State's voter data file documentation⁠.

[Vrede too]

Cautiously optimistic.

https://x.com/gtconway3d/status/2116878229722292509

Voter rolls ID race?

Good question.

Not Per Se.


There is, however, an important distinction.
1. Race: Texas does not require applicants to identify their race or ethnicity when registering to vote. The race/ethnicity question on the federal registration form is marked optional and left blank under Texas instructions.
2. Hispanic surname indicator: Texas does offer a voter-registration data file with a flag identifying voters whose surnames are classified as Hispanic. This is a surname-based indicator, not a verified racial or ethnic identification.
3. Other information: Public voter files can include names, addresses, dates of birth, gender, voter identification numbers, and voting history.
The important distinction: Although Texas does not collect race as a voter-registration field, political organizations and researchers can use names, addresses, census demographics, and other information to estimate individual voters' race.
Those estimates are not the same as race information recorded by the state.
You can see the actual data fields in the Texas Secretary of State's voter data file documentation⁠.

Thanks. I can see an estimate, but the specificity of the Bonier-Conway number threw me.

[Vrede too]

Pollsters: Gov. Katie Hobbs opening up lead on Biggs

With five days to go until the midterm elections, polling suggests Arizona's Gov. Katie Hobbs will stick around for another four years.

That's the takeaway from multiple polls that show the Democratic incumbent opening her lead over U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Gilbert, with Cook Political Report's latest batch of gubernatorial polls upgrading the race from "Lean Democratic" to "Likely Democratic."

Elsewhere, Thursday's aggregate polling update from MSNOW and data partner FiftyPlusOne show Hobbs, a former Arizona secretary of state and state Senate minority leader, holding a +8 lead over Biggs, sitting at 49.3% to 41.8% for her Republican challenger.

GoAZ votersGo! Remember when it was red not long ago? I think some of this is still the Kari Lake, wingnut effect.

... Earlier this year, President Donald Trump endorsed Biggs, describing him as a "steadfast Trump ally." ...

ETTD.


Traitor supporting the racist Rogers-DonOLD-AIPAC campaign.

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed’s primary opponent, Haley Stevens, endorses Republican Mike Rogers in the Michigan Senate race

She'll never have a place in the Dem Party again. El-Sayed is in trouble, as is the Dem Senate majority.

[GoCubsGo]

Traitor supporting the racist Rogers-DonOLD-AIPAC campaign.

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed’s primary opponent, Haley Stevens, endorses Republican Mike Rogers in the Michigan Senate race

She'll never have a place in the Dem Party again. El-Sayed is in trouble, as is the Dem Senate majority.

November surprise.

Eff her.

[supesalemgr2]

Pollsters: Gov. Katie Hobbs opening up lead on Biggs

With five days to go until the midterm elections, polling suggests Arizona's Gov. Katie Hobbs will stick around for another four years.

That's the takeaway from multiple polls that show the Democratic incumbent opening her lead over U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Gilbert, with Cook Political Report's latest batch of gubernatorial polls upgrading the race from "Lean Democratic" to "Likely Democratic."

Elsewhere, Thursday's aggregate polling update from MSNOW and data partner FiftyPlusOne show Hobbs, a former Arizona secretary of state and state Senate minority leader, holding a +8 lead over Biggs, sitting at 49.3% to 41.8% for her Republican challenger.

GoAZ votersGo! Remember when it was red not long ago? I think some of this is still the Kari Lake, wingnut effect.

... Earlier this year, President Donald Trump endorsed Biggs, describing him as a "steadfast Trump ally." ...

ETTD.


Traitor supporting the racist Rogers-DonOLD-AIPAC campaign.

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed’s primary opponent, Haley Stevens, endorses Republican Mike Rogers in the Michigan Senate race

She'll never have a place in the Dem Party again. El-Sayed is in trouble, as is the Dem Senate majority.

I suspect she is one of many "mainstream" dems who don't support El-Sayed.

[Vrede too]

Traitor supporting the racist Rogers-DonOLD-AIPAC campaign.

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed’s primary opponent, Haley Stevens, endorses Republican Mike Rogers in the Michigan Senate race

She'll never have a place in the Dem Party again. El-Sayed is in trouble, as is the Dem Senate majority.

I suspect she is one of many "mainstream" dems who don't support El-Sayed.

Fair enough, but you NEVER endorse a RepuQ and his racist campaign, just as many Repubs would not accept the endorsement of an offensive Dem. Butthurt over the Primary is no excuse. She should just stfu, instead.

[GoCubsGo]

Person non grata.

I know
@HaleyforMI
way better than most people on X. She and I came into Congress together in 2018. She was co-Prez of our freshman class. She was incredibly kind to me when my late partner died; she organized a big group of our class to come to the House floor to support me when I spoke about his suicide. We were roommates in 2023, after my wonderful first roomie lost her election; both my adult kids know Haley well and are on a texting basis with her. We’ve socialized and we have good friends in common. While she and I differ on one impt issue, specifically Israel and AIPAC support, I’ve never publicly challenged her on those things, because I felt that her good points outweighed the issues I disagreed with her on. Today, that changes.
Haley’s endorsement of Rogers in the MI senate race is appalling. Not because he’s a Republican, but because what he stands for is what she, and I, and our caucus has fought so hard against. Rogers is a 100% anti-choice politician. He is a Trump loyalist. He’s shown his Islamophobia in his many remarks against
@AbdulElSayed
, and with this endorsement, Haley has shown that she agrees with his positions. I’m shocked by Haley’s endorsement. I’m terribly sad and disappointed. I’m furious and will be more so if we lose the MI senate race. So many people in the Democratic Party have shown so much support to Haley over the years, and she has betrayed them all. If this is because of her new relationship (about which many of us were so happy for her after she lost the primary), all I can say is that any woman who abandons her friends when a new guy comes along is no friend at all. The fallout for Haley won’t just be in Dem politics; she will be a pariah among her friends in the Democratic caucus in Congress. Only she will be able to decide whether it was worth it.

[GoCubsGo]

LOL

[GoCubsGo]

She's betrayed everyone.

[GoCubsGo]

Bearing down on the issues facing America before the mid term.

[Vrede too]

Bearing down on the issues facing America before the mid term.

https://x.com/atrupar/status/2117029615629648285

Will football hate enthuse MAGA? scratching head emoji

[GoCubsGo]

Bearing down on the issues facing America before the mid term.

https://x.com/atrupar/status/2117029615629648285

Will football hate enthuse MAGA? scratching head emoji

Guess he has nothing else to talk about....


Prediction markets have the senate and a dem sweep at 73%.