Electoral College Vote Predictions

[Tertius]

Below is the list of electoral college votes. Copy and paste this list with who you think will carry each. Lets see who will be the most correct. Comments and critique should be moved to another discussion. I hope this meets with the board rules.

Total: 538; Majority Needed to Elect: 270
Alabama - 9
Alaska - 3
Arizona - 11
Arkansas - 6
California - 55
Colorado - 9
Connecticut - 7
Delaware - 3
District Of Columbia - 3
Florida - 29
Georgia - 16
Hawaii - 4
Idaho - 4
Illinois - 20
Indiana - 11
Iowa - 6
Kansas - 6
Kentucky - 8
Louisiana - 8
Maine - 4
Maryland - 10
Massachusetts - 11
Michigan - 16
Minnesota - 10
Mississippi - 6
Missouri - 10
Montana - 3
Nebraska - 5
Nevada - 6
New Hampshire - 4
New Jersey - 14
New Mexico - 5
New York - 29
North Carolina - 15
North Dakota - 3
Ohio - 18
Oklahoma - 7
Oregon - 7
Pennsylvania - 20
Rhode Island - 4
South Carolina - 9
South Dakota - 3
Tennessee - 11
Texas - 38
Utah - 6
Vermont - 3
Virginia - 13
Washington - 12
West Virginia - 5
Wisconsin - 10
Wyoming - 3


*The exceptions are Maine and Nebraska, where a proportional method for allocating votes is used.[*]

[O Really]

Sorry to be lazy, but I got Nate Silver to do mine. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... te-silver/

[Colonel Taylor]

Sorry to be lazy, but I got Nate Silver to do mine. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... te-silver/

Problem is he has Obama winning Virginia and Romney has led the last several polls, as with Colorado, which is a 22 point swing.

[Colonel Taylor]

Sorry to be lazy, but I got Nate Silver to do mine. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... te-silver/

Problem is he has Obama winning Virginia and Romney has led the last several polls,

Barely, and not unanimously: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -1774.html

as with Colorado,

Nope, could still go either way: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -2023.html

which is a 22 point swing.

Your predictions?

Other then these two he may be right on. I still think when in the booth folks will not care about foreign policy, $9.00 birth control of the color of the mars sand.

It will be the economy stupid

. No one here just saying. And they will vote for Romney because he's another choice, four years ago we had none.

[Reality]

363 Romney/Ryan. 175 Obama/Biden.

[Colonel Taylor]

I think Biden would have a melt down and literally flame out. Heck he's half way there now!
Or many of the Democrats would or could see this as a way to guaranteed Re-Election in 2 years and go with a Republican/Ryan. Not all dems are Reid and Pelosi.

Okay, Colonel Taylor is going with Nate Silver's prediction, but with CO and VA flipped.

Obama/Biden 268.8, Romney/Ryan 269.2. Which could leave us with:
A Romney-Biden Administration? It Could Happen
Not that I'd wish for it, but a Mitten (65 years old) victory and early death could make Biden POTUS.

363 Romney/Ryan. 175 Obama/Biden.

State by state, can't you read directions?

[Reality]

Following your lead there Vred. Check the second post on this thread.

[AntiAlias]

Following your lead there Vred. Check the second post on this thread.

You mean the one that has a link to state-by-state results? Damn you're dumb.

[bannination]

Sorry to be lazy, but I got Nate Silver to do mine. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... te-silver/

I tend to stick with his assessments as well.

[Colonel Taylor]

I have no idea how it works, but Romney would get in by the republicans delegates he's in, OK.
The Senate can vote for Ryan over Biden? Romney is in anyway and Biden will have no power so what would be the sense. My point if they wanted to be the great peace makers they could vote Ryan in. They would be the hero's in two years saying we made the peace even if things go well for Romney, if things get worse they say see we made peace and they still stink. Win win. Put ole Joe in there and in two years the cons whine and complain saying see Joe and the libs fight everyone from Obama in the past to the republicans now.
Just an opinion.

Okay, Colonel Taylor is going with Nate Silver's prediction, but with CO and VA flipped.

Obama/Biden 268.8, Romney/Ryan 269.2. Which could leave us with:
A Romney-Biden Administration? It Could Happen
Not that I'd wish for it, but a Mitten (65 years old) victory and early death could make Biden POTUS...

I think Biden would have a melt down and literally flame out. Heck he's half way there now!
Or many of the Democrats would or could see this as a way to guaranteed Re-Election in 2 years and go with a Republican/Ryan. Not all dems are Reid and Pelosi.

That makes no sense, as usual. For the Dems to do that they would have to know that Mitten was going to die in office.

Note: I edited out the part of my post relating to Reality not following Tertius' instructions since it was irrelevant to Colonel Taylor's reply. Probably won't stop Colonel Taylor from whining about it.

[Colonel Taylor]

Ah, got it, thank you. Seems like a stretch, it's just not that heroic or memorable 2 years later. But, you're right, they could choose Ryan for immediate amity. Unlikely we'll ever find out, just an interesting speculation.

That's all it was.

[O Really]

For once, the Colonel's idea makes sense, but I disagree. First, the VP isn't powerless, as he gets to cast a tie-breaker in the Senate, which could be helpful in avoiding House teapartiers run amock with Romney's acquiescence. But past that, nobody would remember in two years that the Senate tried to make peace, and instead individual Dem Senators who voted for Ryan would be hung out to dry. For Romney to blame all his mess on Obama is one thing, but if he tried to blame it on Biden it would be laughable to all. Odds are really low of a tie occurring, fortunately.

On a similar note, why on earth would some states have separate elections for Governor and Lt. Governor that would allow different parties to win?

[O Really]

I have long thought the Electoral College had outlived its usefulness and thought it should be discarded. I think this year I'm glad to have it. As ol' Garth once said, "some of God's greatest gifts are unanswered prayers."

[Tertius]

California - 55 Obama 55
Connecticut - 7 Obama 7
Delaware - 3 Obama 3
District Of Columbia - 3 Obama 3
Hawaii - 4 Obama 4
Illinois - 20 Obama 20
Maine - 4 Obama 4
Maryland - 10 Obama 10
Massachusetts - 11 Obama 11
Michigan - 16 Obama 16
Minnesota - 10 Obama 10
Nevada - 6 Obama 6
New Mexico - 5 Obama 5
New York - 29 Obama 29
Ohio - 18 Obama 18
Oregon - 7 Obama 7
Rhode Island - 4 Obama 4
Vermont - 3 Obama 3
Washington - 12 Obama 12
227

Alabama - 9 Romney 9
Alaska - 3 Romney 3
Arizona - 11 Romney 11
Arkansas - 6 Romney 6
Colorado - 9 Romney 9
Florida - 29 Romney 29
Georgia - 16 Romney 16
Idaho - 4 Romney 4
Indiana - 11 Romney 11
Iowa - 6 Romney 6
Kansas - 6 Romney 6
Kentucky - 8 Romney 8
Louisiana - 8 Romney 8
Mississippi - 6 Romney 6
Missouri - 10 Romney 10
Montana - 3 Romney 3
Nebraska - 5 Romney 5
New Hampshire - 4 Romney 4
New Jersey - 14 Romney 14
North Carolina - 15 Romney 15
North Dakota - 3 Romney 3
Oklahoma - 7 Romney 7
Pennsylvania - 20 Romney 20
South Carolina - 9 Romney 9
South Dakota - 3 Romney 3
Tennessee - 11 Romney 11
Texas - 38 Romney 38
Utah - 6 Romney 6
Virginia - 13 Romney 13
West Virginia - 5 Romney 5
Wisconsin - 10 Romney 10
Wyoming - 3 Romney 3
311

[JTA]

Write it for Honey-Boo Boo.

But I still think Gary Johnson will win this election.

[Tertius]

Tertius: Obama/Biden 219, Romney/Ryan 313.

Who gets the other 6 electoral votes?

I see i made a few mistakes; I'll fix it when I have time. Thanks

[O Really]

Tertius: Obama/Biden 219, Romney/Ryan 313.

Who gets the other 6 electoral votes?

I see i made a few mistakes; I'll fix it when I have time. Thanks

Yes, starting with your choice of candidate to vote for. But besides that...the chances of Romney getting ALL of Wisconsin, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Virginia is about the same as the Yanks winning the World Series this year. Nagonnahappen. Some, maybe. Virginia is close, but New Jersey? Connecticut? and Romney hasn't even tried in Pennsylvania for months. C'mon, it's your game. You don't want to have to look at those guesses on Wednesday morning.

[gongoozler]

[Ragin Rebel]

Romney 321-Obama 217

[mike]

I'm sure this has been brought up in this thread a number of times *I'm new here and I don't want to go way back ... sorry ... )

If one really wants to know about the Electoral College predictions and the changing numbers thereof, all one needs to do is go to Nate Silver's awesome blog ... http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/