Ohio

[Tertius]

It has been the consensus that Ohio is the win or loses state and it is Obama’s. Not so fast. Let’s consider the numbers.

Obama’s lead based on, RealClearPolitics that Obama’s lead has dropped form 5.5 to 2.1%. This is within the margin of error so it is now referred to as a tie.

Romney’s biggest liability is that he opposed the auto bailout but a bailout is not going to happen twice. So many believe Romney will get a lot more of the auto vote than imagined. As an actual businessman it is Romney not Obama that knows what an auto company needs to keep making both cars and money.

There are 18 counties in Ohio that produce coal not cars. Obama has hurt himself far more with these voters than Romney has hurt himself with autoworkers. Those 18 coal counties gave Obama a 41,000 margin in 2008. Obama not only will not get that majority of votes but also might lose by that many on coal country by 10,000 votes. That segment alone accounts for a 51,000 drop in votes for Obama.

The young adult vote went for Obama in ’08 (18 to 29 year olds). Obama won that demographic 61 to 36% giving him a margin of 238,000 votes. It is expected that 13 to 15% of that demographic will not vote this year. With the high unemployment and especially the under employment of college graduates Obama will be lucky to get more than half of the reduced number. So on could conclude that young adult vote has been neutralized. But let’s say Obama ‘s margin is reduced to 104,000 votes from young adults.

Obama biggest margin in Ohio came from Cuyahoga county (Cleveland) but voter registration is down 182,000 voters. That is 16% and does not cover those that have died or left the area. It is estimated that will cost Obama 40,000 votes.

It is still going to be hard to overcome the 74,000 auto union vote. But on the other side of the ledger there are 40,000 plus 134,000 plus 51,000 votes. That is 151,000 more margin votes to Romney.

Now apply this reasoning to Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

[Colonel Taylor]

The only thing that seems strange about the polls is many are still polling more dems as per the 2008 turnout which was very high for the dems and low for the reps. The two most accurate in 08 were Pew and Rasmussen and Pew I do think has Ohio even and Ras. has Romney ahead.

[Brother]

And Rasmussen includes NO cell phones. How accurate could that be? There is an article out today talking about the many ways polls are conducted. Some polls are just conducted just on Wednesdays which would exclude Wednesday church goers, people that work on Wednesday, etc. There are polls that are only conducted in the evening hours. Some poll registered voters and some poll likely voters. Some are robo calls that all you do is press a number for who you are voting for. Anybody could answer these calls even if they aren't registered to vote. So I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock in polls this day and time.

[bannination]

And Rasmussen includes NO cell phones. How accurate could that be? There is an article out today talking about the many ways polls are conducted. Some polls are just conducted just on Wednesdays which would exclude Wednesday church goers, people that work on Wednesday, etc. There are polls that are only conducted in the evening hours. Some poll registered voters and some poll likely voters. Some are robo calls that all you do is press a number for who you are voting for. Anybody could answer these calls even if they aren't registered to vote. So I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock in polls this day and time.

Someone failed statistics.

[Colonel Taylor]

And Rasmussen includes NO cell phones. How accurate could that be? There is an article out today talking about the many ways polls are conducted. Some polls are just conducted just on Wednesdays which would exclude Wednesday church goers, people that work on Wednesday, etc. There are polls that are only conducted in the evening hours. Some poll registered voters and some poll likely voters. Some are robo calls that all you do is press a number for who you are voting for. Anybody could answer these calls even if they aren't registered to vote. So I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock in polls this day and time.

Just curious was all. Well Ras. and Pew must of done something right in 08 since they were nearly right on when you had Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby being the worst off by nearly 5 points, gee even fox was off only by 1 point in 08.

[Supsalemgr]

I am pretty sure I recall an interview with Scott Rasmussen and he stated they did call cell phones as well.

[Brother]

I am pretty sure I recall an interview with Scott Rasmussen and he stated they did call cell phones as well.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... ut_us/faqs

No they don't! And therein lies the difference in this year's election and the election of 2008. Many more people have cell phones only now than they did four years ago.

[Colonel Taylor]

I am pretty sure I recall an interview with Scott Rasmussen and he stated they did call cell phones as well.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... ut_us/faqs

No they don't! And therein lies the difference in this year's election and the election of 2008. Many more people have cell phones only now than they did four years ago.

Wouldn't matter to me if I don't recognize a number it goes to voice mail.

[Brother]

I am pretty sure I recall an interview with Scott Rasmussen and he stated they did call cell phones as well.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... ut_us/faqs

No they don't! And therein lies the difference in this year's election and the election of 2008. Many more people have cell phones only now than they did four years ago.

Wouldn't matter to me if I don't recognize a number it goes to voice mail.

Well, I am the same way but most people I know that only have cell phones answer them as soon as they ring. And no matter where they are! The thing is if you aren't going to answer your phone if you don't know the number then it doesn't matter anyway but pollsters are missing a large part of the population by not calling cell phone users.

[Tertius]

...Obama’s lead based on, RealClearPolitics that Obama’s lead has dropped form 5.5 to 2.1%. This is within the margin of error so it is now referred to as a tie...

Obama +2.3 - the biggest margin he's had since 10/19 - and, being an average of polls with differing margins of error, it has no margin of error of its own. It has not been at "5.5%" since 10/4. They call it a "toss up" state, not a "tie". 8 of the 9 polls show Obama leading.

It's been said before, when an original source is cited by a biased entity - CHECK!

While we're at it: No Toss Up States:
Obama/Biden 290, Romney/Ryan 248

You can calculate the variance of different samples. The formula is the square root of the sum of the individual variances. The plus or minus margin of error is a calculated number using the variance which is used to calculate the standard deviation.

Medical test use this method often. I would think you would be more informed.

[Supsalemgr]

As the Rev. Wright suggested - "chickens coming home to roost". It appears the eastern Ohio counties where the coal industry is very important is swinging heavily toward Romney. Even heard head thug Richard Trumpka is there trying to convince the UMW folks it is better for them to vote for Obama than for them to keep their jobs. I don't that will play.

[Colonel Taylor]

[nobody]

...Obama’s lead based on, RealClearPolitics that Obama’s lead has dropped form 5.5 to 2.1%. This is within the margin of error so it is now referred to as a tie...

Obama +2.3 - the biggest margin he's had since 10/19 - and, being an average of polls with differing margins of error, it has no margin of error of its own. It has not been at "5.5%" since 10/4. They call it a "toss up" state, not a "tie". 8 of the 9 polls show Obama leading.

It's been said before, when an original source is cited by a biased entity - CHECK!

While we're at it: No Toss Up States:
Obama/Biden 290, Romney/Ryan 248

You can calculate the variance of different samples. The formula is the square root of the sum of the individual variances. The plus or minus margin of error is a calculated number using the variance which is used to calculate the standard deviation.

Medical test use this method often. I would think you would be more informed.

Yes, you can do that.

Do you know the margins of error of each of the 9 different polls?
Did you calculate the variance of the different samples?
Do you have any evidence that RCP has done this with their Obama +2.3, not "2.1%" as you incorrectly posted, average OH advantage?
Or, as RCP says, is it just an average?

Are you just trying to weasel out of having screwed up, again?

I'm not involved with the statistical realm of medicine, but it doesn't take an expert to debunk you.

I do not know about all that. The original post points out differences between to day and Obama's 08 election. His points make a point.

If one is off a little bit one way the other might be off the other way.

[O Really]

Tert/Nobody, and other poll nit-pickers... your points may be well taken, i.e. cell contacts make a difference, polling assumptions make a difference, yada. But do you really think these people who poll for a living and have for a long time don't know this and take it into consideration?

I'm imagining you whispering to your friends in hushed, conspiratorial tones, "Well, changes since last year could affect Governor Christie's pants size, and if he doesn't consider that when he goes shopping, he'll end up with tight pants." Like he doesn't know?

[nobody]

Tert/Nobody, and other poll nit-pickers... your points may be well taken, i.e. cell contacts make a difference, polling assumptions make a difference, yada. But do you really think these people who poll for a living and have for a long time don't know this and take it into consideration?

.? Do u think the polls are right or not?

The origin post is about population and opinion changes from 08.

[O Really]

Tert/Nobody, and other poll nit-pickers... your points may be well taken, i.e. cell contacts make a difference, polling assumptions make a difference, yada. But do you really think these people who poll for a living and have for a long time don't know this and take it into consideration?

.? Do u think the polls are right or not?

The origin post is about population and opinion changes from 08.

"Right" is subject to one's definition. Is one/tenth percentage point off "right" or wrong? But I think if you look at polls over a period of time, you'll find those that have been around are reasonably close most of the time. Obviously sometimes they blow it. There's nothing in this years crop of polls, however - looked at over a years time - that would indicate any pollsters have forgotten to consider changes in demographics or candidate perceptions. So bottom line, yes, I think it will be a close election; Romney may win or come close to winning the popular vote, and Obama will be re-elected with a win in the vote that counts, the Electoral College.

[Colonel Taylor]

Tert/Nobody, and other poll nit-pickers... your points may be well taken, i.e. cell contacts make a difference, polling assumptions make a difference, yada. But do you really think these people who poll for a living and have for a long time don't know this and take it into consideration?

Why didn't they in 2008 when the most liberal polls were off by as much as 4.5 points C-span/ reuters, CBS, NBC by 2.5. Fox was off by only one and Rasmussen and Pew right on? Many of your liberal friends have ripped Rass. a few times yet they have proven to be the most accurate. The lib sights don't care if they are off because they will always have the lib. koolaid drinkers following them no matter what.

I'm imagining you whispering to your friends in hushed, conspiratorial tones, "Well, changes since last year could affect Governor Christie's pants size, and if he doesn't consider that when he goes shopping, he'll end up with tight pants." Like he doesn't know?

[O Really]

Think about it, Colonel. What does a polling company have to gain by being intentionally or knowingly wrong?

[rstrong]

Think about it, Colonel. What does a polling company have to gain by being intentionally or knowingly wrong?

There's a lot of money in publishing polls that are intentionally or knowingly wrong. While working for a computer store I made many tech support calls to a polling firm that did exactly that.

One political party or another would hire them to produce a poll showing that most voters support or hate a given position. Opposition parties use these to hammer the governing party, and the governing party uses them to defend their policies. If you're going to unveil a controversial policy, accompany it with a poll showing that most people agree.

Lobby groups produce such polls to influence politicians. Unions and large corporations are popular customers.

The polling firm I did tech support for knew that their poll results would skew far right in rural southern Manitoba, and far left in northern Manitoba. The demographics of different areas could tell them how those areas would vote on other issues. Sort of like the land line vs cell phone trick popular in America.

(Dishonestly) good poll results will also raise the REAL results at the ballot box. They raise the impression of the candidate's credibility. As the saying goes, nothing succeeds like success.

[Colonel Taylor]

Think about it, Colonel. What does a polling company have to gain by being intentionally or knowingly wrong?

Well then were these polls who were off by so much in 2008 just incompetent? It seems the three closest to being right are the ones getting slammed here by the left.