2018 elections

[O Really]

What state are you voting in now?

Florida - 22nd District
https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/FL/22

[Vrede too]

Florida - 22nd District
https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/FL/22

58.9% for the Dem Rep. in 2016. 56% for Hillary.

Current Governors
16 Democrats, Independent 1 (AK), Republicans 33

2018 Governor Races
19 Democrats, Republicans 26
Alaska Independent incumbent, Bill Walker, has a GOP opponent but RCP says the race “Leans Independent”.
4 Toss Ups, all currently GOP, FL: Open, MI: Open, NV: Open, OH: Open
Polling for Florida, whose Primary is August 28:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... orida.html
The race could get muddled by a Reform Party candidate and a couple of potential Independents.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida_g ... form_Party
Do you have a favorite yet, billy.pilgrim?

Do you have a favorite yet for governor?

I'd already written this when you posted, kind of irrelevant now:

The Wiki maps are a little unclear, but it looks like Naples is the 19th Congressional District. 65.9% for the GOP Rep., but 50% for Obama in 2012 and only 52% for Dolt .45.

Some of it may be in the 25th congressional district. 62.4% for the GOP Rep. in 2016, but Wiki doesn't have the POTUS election results and I don't feel like sorting them out from among 4 counties.

[O Really]

Do you have a favorite yet for governor?

I don't really care as long as s/he's not a Republican, and I'll vote for whichever Dem is running. I may have mentioned that I had just become eligible to vote when Agnew ran for Governor of MD. Although I registered as a Dem (of course) and probably my parents didn't tell me that there was any other way to register anyway, but the Dem candidate that year was truly awful. A true segregationist (George Mahoney). So in my first opportunity to vote, I voted Republican as the lesser of two evils. Opps. Learned my lesson from that. Probably if I had it to do over again, I'd vote for Mahoney as he would actually have been the lesser of the two evils.

[Vrede too]

I don't really care as long as s/he's not a Republican, and I'll vote for whichever Dem is running. I may have mentioned that I had just become eligible to vote when Agnew ran for Governor of MD. Although I registered as a Dem (of course) and probably my parents didn't tell me that there was any other way to register anyway, but the Dem candidate that year was truly awful. A true segregationist (George Mahoney). So in my first opportunity to vote, I voted Republican as the lesser of two evils. Opps. Learned my lesson from that. Probably if I had it to do over again, I'd vote for Mahoney as he would actually have been the lesser of the two evils.

Looks like it's a competitive FL Gov. Dem primary. There may be a best candidate and/or most likely to win candidate. Don't be a Vox/Bungalow Bill.

I never voted in Maryland, but I do remember George Wallace getting "shot five times by Arthur Bremer while campaigning at the Laurel Shopping Center in Laurel, Maryland, at a time when he was receiving high ratings in national opinion polls."

I still remember going to an amazing exposition on pollution in DC sponsored by a GOP MD Rep back before the GOP fell in love with pollution. It's been too long, I looked through the Congresses from the period and don't recognize the name. My liberal mom might have even voted for him, but I can't remember for sure.

[O Really]

Looks like Levine has a leg up for now...
http://www.tampabay.com/florida-politic ... s-to-lose/

Anyway, I can be Vox/Buffalo if I want, because local and even state politics doesn't much matter/affect us. We're Florida residents, and will vote in state-wide and national elections, but other than that I don't have any dogs in the fight. This year, we're in NY for July, Vermont for August, Maine for September, then cruising leisurely back to Florida for the winter. After that, assuming we don't run into health or other severe issues, we're off to the west coast probably never to return - at least not for a while. We'll be summering in WA, OR mostly, and wintering in So Cal. So if Florida decides to require everyone to carry an AR-15 or North Carolina decides to tattoo a big "T" on transgenders, it's not going to pop our little bubble of liberal sanity we carry around with us.

[Vrede too]

Looks like Levine has a leg up for now...
http://www.tampabay.com/florida-politic ... s-to-lose/

Anyway, I can be Vox/Buffalo if I want, because local and even state politics doesn't much matter/affect us. We're Florida residents, and will vote in state-wide and national elections, but other than that I don't have any dogs in the fight....

Are you forgetting 2000 and the difference it made and is still making to the world that Jeb was governor?

Anyhow, happy trails, soon to be left coaster.

Weird, RCP doesn't include that poll and has a later poll showing Levine only up by 2%.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... orida.html
That's a huge difference from your article's 32%-16%, I wonder what's up with that.

Philip Levine sure has the credentials to win and he looks great on the issues.
Wiki
Campaign website
Priorities
He's not being mealymouthed on things like gun control, healthcare, AGW, criminal justice reforms and immigration.

I did not look up Gwen Graham, in case your poll is more accurate than RCP.

[O Really]

Are you forgetting 2000 and the difference it made and is still making to the world that Jeb was governor?


[/quote]

I didn't vote fot Jeb. None of my friends voted for Jeb as far as I know. I have no idea how he got into office, but I'm pretty sure there was sleaze involved somewhere.

[Vrede too]

Hmmm...a Dem nuclear option. If it backfires the cons keep the Senate in November. They won't have the guts.

Better hope is Flake, Corker or McCain have a spine if the nominee is a RWNJ.

Maybe there are other Dem options, idk. I suppose it's also possible that some other Repug/s that's up for reelection will be polling poorly enough that s/he feels the need to oppose POSPOTUS. There's also Susan Collins (R-ME), Lindsey Graham (R-SC) - we're counting on you, JTA - and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), in theory.

There's also the possibility, admittedly slim, that the threat of Dem action and/or moderate GOP hesitance will force Dolt .45 to nominate a more moderate justice than he might otherwise like.

Trump picks Brett Kavanaugh for Supreme Court

No one on the short list was moderate, but I did see reichwingers wishing that Kavanaugh would not get picked. It's still ugly, but that's tempered a little knowing there are some butthurt misogynists and other cons.

[Vrede too]

ACLU Congressional Scorecard

Scroll to the bottom. All you need to enter in "Your address" is your zip code.

Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) 6%
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) 14%
Rep. Mark Meadows (R-NC11) 19%

Repugs hate personal freedom.

[Vrede too]

California Democratic Party snubs Feinstein, endorses rival

The California Democratic Party snubbed U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein on Saturday by handing its official endorsement and a badly needed boost to state Sen. Kevin de Leon, her longshot Democratic challenger.

In backing de Leon, a majority of the party's 360-member executive board ignored Feinstein's calls to stay neutral in the race. Her allies had warned an endorsement would create an intraparty squabble that could detract from important down-ballot races.

De Leon has long been courting party activists and appealed to those seeking a fresh face and a more progressive senator to fight against President Donald Trump.

"Today's vote is a clear-eyed rejection of politics as usual in Washington, D.C.," de Leon said in a statement after the vote. "We have presented Californians with the first real alternative to the worn-out Washington playbook in a quarter-century."

A total of 217 delegates voted for de Leon, of Los Angeles, while 22 cast ballots for Feinstein and 94 voted for no endorsement.

Party members and activists are typically more liberal than the wider California electorate that has sent Feinstein to Washington five times. Feinstein has turned skepticism from some party activists into an asset in her past campaigns.

The endorsement of de Leon means the state party will spend money promoting his candidacy this fall.

Still, Feinstein outpaces him in name recognition and cash and has a loyal following across California. She won the June 5 primary with 44 percent of the vote compared to de Leon's 12 percent....

California runs a top-two primary system that sends the two highest primary vote-getters to the general election regardless of party. The system allowed de Leon to take the No. 2 spot by squeaking past a slew of unknown Republicans in the primary....

De Leon led the state Senate until earlier this year. He is the author of California's sanctuary state law that was the target of a Trump administration lawsuit. A judge dismissed the case....

However, Feinstein +18 or +22.

That I've noticed she has been especially bad on surveillance state issues.

[Vrede too]

There Is a Revolution on the Left. Democrats Are Bracing.

It's a debate that's at least as old as the 4+ decades of my adult life, one I resolved for myself by leaving the Dem Party in the mid-80s, despite my then steady climb in leadership, after returning from a peace march through Central America. Leaving aside ethical issues, do the Dems do better by moving to the left or to the right? IMO, moving to the right has largely failed, in part because cons portray the Dems as socialist/communist leftist extremists, regardless. Otoh, moving to the left and away from being corporate lapdogs means that the Dems can run on clear principles, a strategy that has paid off for the GOP even though those principles are bankrupt and hateful.

What do y'all think?

[Vrede too]

GOP Rep (DeSantis) Teaches His Kids To ‘Build The Wall’ In Creepy New Ad
It’s like “Mister Rogers’ Neighborhood,” but for far-right nationalism.



Florida Governor - Republican Primary - DeSantis +11.0
Florida Governor - Democratic Primary - Graham +5.3
Florida Governor - DeSantis vs. Graham - Graham +4

Check out our rundown of 2018′s worst campaign ads.


This Will Save Lives -- Levi for Colorado

He lost the Dem primary for US House CO 6 to a more con Dem supported by the DNCC. The seat is currently GOP, but RCP says it's a tossup.



Helmer Zone

He lost the Dem primary for US House VA 10. The seat is currently GOP, but RCP says it's leaning Dem.

Virginia 10th District - Comstock (GOP incumbent) vs. Wexton (D) - Wexton +9

More bad ads at the link.

[Vrede too]

Georgia Governor - Kemp (white male R) vs. Abrams (black female D)

RCP Average: Tie

Whoa.

[billy.pilgrim]

Georgia Governor - Kemp (white male R) vs. Abrams (black female D)

RCP Average: Tie

Whoa.

There will be some serious get out the vote work in Georgia - on both sides

60% white
30% black

She only needs a little more than a 1/3 of the white vote.

[Vrede too]

There will be some serious get out the vote work in Georgia - on both sides

60% white
30% black

She only needs a little more than a 1/3 of the white vote.

Part of the "blue wave" theory is that Dems are energized and con independents are disappointed with POSPOTUS and the Repugs. If she can also inspire high black turnout like Obama did . . .

Then, the wild card is Mueller and the reaction to what he does.

[billy.pilgrim]

I see both sides energised.
I don't think the kkk types ever voted before Obama. Reaction to him brought out some of them and trump brought them out in even bigger numbers.
Now they are inspired by trump. They will vote.

Of all the deep south states, Georgia may have the best shot at making right-wing heads explode by electing a black women. A large black population, plus Atlanta with its huge number of non-southern transplants may be enough to counter the rednecks to the north and to the south.

And, as you said, there is Muller. But for his investigation to make a difference trump's followers (birthers, pizzagaters and these Q idiots) will have to believe the results.

[Vrede too]

... Of all the deep south states, Georgia may have the best shot at making right-wing heads explode by electing a black women. A large black population, plus Atlanta with its huge number of non-southern transplants may be enough to counter the rednecks to the north and to the south.

And, as you said, there is Muller. But for his investigation to make a difference trump's followers (birthers, pizzagaters and these Q idiots) will have to believe the results.

I'm thinking about independents, those infamous suburban moms, etc. I assume that Trumpettes are hopeless and will remain that way, though maybe some could become despondent enough to stay home.

[billy.pilgrim]

... Of all the deep south states, Georgia may have the best shot at making right-wing heads explode by electing a black women. A large black population, plus Atlanta with its huge number of non-southern transplants may be enough to counter the rednecks to the north and to the south.

And, as you said, there is Muller. But for his investigation to make a difference trump's followers (birthers, pizzagaters and these Q idiots) will have to believe the results.

I'm thinking about independents, those infamous suburban moms, etc. I assume that Trumpettes are hopeless and will remain that way, though maybe some could become despondent enough to stay home.

I agree about white suburban moms reacting against trump - especially around Atlanta and a few college towns, but the rest of the state not so much.

Could be that Atlanta (hotlanta as we called it growing up) is becoming to mostly rural Georgia, what NYC is to mostly rural, largely conservative NY.

[Vrede too]

I agree about white suburban moms reacting against trump - especially around Atlanta and a few college towns, but the rest of the state not so much.

Could be that Atlanta (hotlanta as we called it growing up) is becoming to mostly rural Georgia, what NYC is to mostly rural, largely conservative NY.

I'm not making predictions. It feels like close races have always broken against my wishes, but it may just be that relief is less impactful than horror.

[billy.pilgrim]

I agree about white suburban moms reacting against trump - especially around Atlanta and a few college towns, but the rest of the state not so much.

Could be that Atlanta (hotlanta as we called it growing up) is becoming to mostly rural Georgia, what NYC is to mostly rural, largely conservative NY.

I'm not making predictions. It feels like close races have always broken against my wishes, but it may just be that relief is less impactful than horror.

That it is, that it is.


And now for your viewing entertainment




https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rvx_XjteHrc

"A message I alone ..."

Not sure why it comes up muted. Tap the un-mute button when it opens.