Single hurricane thread

[Vrede too]

Rainfall amounts so far, predictions, comparisons to past storms:

Florence to Cause Flash Flooding, Major to Record River Flooding in Carolinas, Western Virginia

[billy.pilgrim]

That was total bullshit.

They should understand a storm surge better than I do. Their job is to inform, not to scare people into running unnecessarily.

How so?

The initial broad surge doesn't go much above its own elevation. After that, there is a funneling that does take the surge over even higher land and up rivers at elevations well above that initial surge, but into limited areas. Her animation is correct that it is very fast rising water.

There is also a push back by the rivers.

The map seemed overly exaggerated, much like the weather channel guy faking the wind effects and the CNN guy at 11 last night warning about catastrophic storm surge at myrtle beach.

Busy day and maybe I missed something, but did the areas in the map and myrtle beach experience a catastrophic storm surge this morning, or as I said a couple of days ago - no matter the turn to the South or the cat rating, there would be a huge cat 4 surge in a direct line with the northwest movement as a cat 4. I also said that the turn South would bring winds from the west that would push against a surge in southern NC and in SC.

I've been wrong before, but isn't this what happened?

[Vrede too]

The initial broad surge doesn't go much above its own elevation. After that, there is a funneling that does take the surge over even higher land and up rivers at elevations well above that initial surge, but into limited areas. Her animation is correct that it is very fast rising water.

There is also a push back by the rivers.

The map seemed overly exaggerated, much like the weather channel guy faking the wind effects and the CNN guy at 11 last night warning about catastrophic storm surge at myrtle beach.

Busy day and maybe I missed something, but did the areas in the map and myrtle beach experience a catastrophic storm surge this morning, or as I said a couple of days ago - no matter the turn to the South or the cat rating, there would be a huge cat 4 surge in a direct line with the northwest movement as a cat 4. I also said that the turn South would bring winds from the west that would push against a surge in southern NC and in SC.

I've been wrong before, but isn't this what happened?

Idk the answers to all of your questions, like timing.
The animation was posted 9/13, so is was predictive while the storm was stronger and directionality was less certain, not descriptive. She calls it "worst case scenario" and several times uses the word "could".
Wouldn't surge predictions or claims take into account river resistance?
My guess is that the potential surge map is not generated by the Weather Channel, but rather by state or federal government. Idk what the actual surge map looks like and how it differs from predictions.
Seems to me that her animation is accurate for those places that did experience from 3 to 10.1 feet (Weather Underground) of surge, whenever and wherever it happened.

Florence’s 1-in-100-Year Storm Surge Breaks All-Time Records

... The largest storm surges reported on Friday from Florence were in New Bern and Emerald Isle, North Carolina, where water levels reached 10.1 feet and 7.0 feet above ground, respectively, according to the National Hurricane Center....

This @weatherchannel visualization of storm surge is an amazing and sobering use of technology to show what hurricanes like Florence can do

https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/10403 ... me-Records

...

[k9nanny]

Yesterday, a report from Myrtle Beach showed barely a ripple of surf because the wind was pushing back.
Not much wind here yet. I made my final Ingle's run (wine), filled the bathtub, and made sure we have plenty of drinking water. We never lose power when I''m well prepared.

Our bottom land can flood with as little as three inches, if it falls quickly. The kennel office can flood, which it never did until a big office building with a big parking lot were installed up the hill. But that's merely an inconvenience compared to all the years our crops were wiped out by storm remnants.

It still feels good, after 15 years, to hear the rain falling, and to know we don't have crops drowning.

[Vrede too]

No rain here yet, but it's looked ominous for hours.

Impressive pics

Edit: Hah, started raining within 20 minutes, may not stop until sometime Monday.

[Leo Lyons]

I made my final Ingle's run (wine), filled the bathtub, and made sure we have plenty of drinking water. We never lose power when I''m well prepared.

Hello k9nanny, it's been a while!
I never thought of filling my bathtub with wine if or when that mess gets this way. One thing for sure, it may rain and the wind may blow; but we won't feel a thing. Or care. Will we?

[Vrede too]

I'm still baffled by Super Typhoon Mangkhut, Philippines then China landfall as a Low, increases to a Tropical Storm 250 miles inland 36 hours later. I've never seen that happen. It's hitting the Philippines now, so the articles I found don't elaborate on what happens on the mainland.

Mystery mostly solved. It never was a Low. Though the "Forecast" still shows it as being a Low , the "Storm History" map shows that it hit Luzon as a Cat 5 and is now a Cat 1.
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... p=forecast
Not sure what's up with that, WU isn't usually so sloppy and never for days at a time. This article gives details about it:

Category 2 Mangkhut May be a Top-Ten Costliest Typhoon for China

[Vrede too]

Rained all day here, but not hard and not much wind. We’ve had a few thunderstorms this year with worse local flooding. If you want to help out central and eastern NC, some ideas are:
North Carolina Disaster Relief Fund - Roy Cooper is a good Gov., I trust the management.
https://governor.nc.gov/donate-florence-recovery
Brother Wolf Animal Rescue
https://www.bwar.org/
Are you more progressive than that?
A Just Florence Recovery
https://anothergulf.com/a-just-florence-recovery/

[billy.pilgrim]

The initial broad surge doesn't go much above its own elevation. After that, there is a funneling that does take the surge over even higher land and up rivers at elevations well above that initial surge, but into limited areas. Her animation is correct that it is very fast rising water.

There is also a push back by the rivers.

The map seemed overly exaggerated, much like the weather channel guy faking the wind effects and the CNN guy at 11 last night warning about catastrophic storm surge at myrtle beach.

Busy day and maybe I missed something, but did the areas in the map and myrtle beach experience a catastrophic storm surge this morning, or as I said a couple of days ago - no matter the turn to the South or the cat rating, there would be a huge cat 4 surge in a direct line with the northwest movement as a cat 4. I also said that the turn South would bring winds from the west that would push against a surge in southern NC and in SC.

I've been wrong before, but isn't this what happened?

Idk the answers to all of your questions, like timing.
The animation was posted 9/13, so is was predictive while the storm was stronger and directionality was less certain, not descriptive. She calls it "worst case scenario" and several times uses the word "could".
Wouldn't surge predictions or claims take into account river resistance?
My guess is that the potential surge map is not generated by the Weather Channel, but rather by state or federal government. Idk what the actual surge map looks like and how it differs from predictions.
Seems to me that her animation is accurate for those places that did experience from 3 to 10.1 feet (Weather Underground) of surge, whenever and wherever it happened.

Florence’s 1-in-100-Year Storm Surge Breaks All-Time Records

... The largest storm surges reported on Friday from Florence were in New Bern and Emerald Isle, North Carolina, where water levels reached 10.1 feet and 7.0 feet above ground, respectively, according to the National Hurricane Center....

This @weatherchannel visualization of storm surge is an amazing and sobering use of technology to show what hurricanes like Florence can do

https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/10403 ... me-Records

...

This flooding is huge. I wish more time had been spent with concern over the rain, than the much more localized surge.

I may come back to this after all are safe. It just doesn't feel right discussing the sensationalism by the media, when so many are still at risk.

[Leo Lyons]

Stolen from CPF but nonetheless funny.....watch the weather dude and the guys behind him.

This video has caused the ship to hit the sand! Poor ol Mike. Personally, I thought he was one of the more respected reporters on TWC. Wrong.
There's also another photo floating around showing Anderson Cooper obviously standing in a ditch in water up to his waist, while the camera crew is standing in water barely over their shoes. They must have seen this gif:

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/10 ... 8635976706

[Vrede too]

Supposed Bill McKibben tweet:

Florence has shattered all rainfall records for the Carolinas. It's dumping 18 trillion gallons of water--as much water as there is in all of Chesapeake Bay

[billy.pilgrim]

Stolen from CPF but nonetheless funny.....watch the weather dude and the guys behind him.

This video has caused the ship to hit the sand! Poor ol Mike. Personally, I thought he was one of the more respected reporters on TWC. Wrong.
There's also another photo floating around showing Anderson Cooper obviously standing in a ditch in water up to his waist, while the camera crew is standing in water barely over their shoes. They must have seen this gif:

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/10 ... 8635976706

The Anderson pic is from 15 years ago, but why waste the truth when a lie pushes the narrative.

[Vrede too]

Supposed Bill McKibben tweet:

Florence has shattered all rainfall records for the Carolinas. It's dumping 18 trillion gallons of water--as much water as there is in all of Chesapeake Bay

TV news says "more than 8 trillion gallons of water on NC." The supposed McKibben tweet includes SC, but NC has been hit much worse. The other assertion is apparently correct:
"The Chesapeake Bay holds more than 18 trillion gallons of water."

[Vrede too]

There's also another photo floating around showing Anderson Cooper obviously standing in a ditch in water up to his waist, while the camera crew is standing in water barely over their shoes....

The Anderson pic is from 15 years ago, but why waste the truth when a lie pushes the narrative.

There's even more to the story.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ander ... hurricane/

... the various available clips of the program document that the waters in the immediately surrounding area were both fairly deep and quite variable. As Anderson noted during that broadcast, his taking two steps backwards from where he was standing would have caused him to sink in neck-deep water.

Cooper also noted that the floodwaters had actually receded significantly before he began his report, and that although he could have stood in a higher-level adjacent roadway where he might have remained drier, he would have risked interfering with emergency vehicles and others attempting to traverse flooded roads.

So while Cooper might have been able to find a somewhat drier spot to report from and instead chose one that provided a visually dramatic appearance, he wasn’t misrepresenting or “lying” about the general state of the flood as seen in the finished program....

[Leo Lyons]

So while Cooper might have been able to find a somewhat drier spot to report from and instead chose one that provided a visually dramatic appearance, he wasn’t misrepresenting or “lying” about the general state of the flood as seen in the finished program....

TWC defended Mike Seidel too. The grass was wet and slippery; he was exhausted from being awake for a long stretch.
(how far off the paved surface was he standing again?)

[billy.pilgrim]

So while Cooper might have been able to find a somewhat drier spot to report from and instead chose one that provided a visually dramatic appearance, he wasn’t misrepresenting or “lying” about the general state of the flood as seen in the finished program....

TWC defended Mike Seidel too. The grass was wet and slippery; he was exhausted from being awake for a long stretch.
(how far off the paved surface was he standing again?)

It's really easy to admit when you are duped.
Then you can move on.

[Vrede too]

It's really easy to admit when you are duped.
Then you can move on.

True, for example.

Some people are lost without their mommies to buy the apples and oranges for them.

In this picture from the Snopes site that was posted by a MAGA-idiot that never mentions it's from 2008, it's clear that the camera crew is on the roadway that Cooper mentions or some other elevated spot, that there is no "ditch" and that Cooper's position is equal to or slightly higher than the chain link fence behind him to the right.

[Vrede too]

Now we know Leo Lyons' real name.

[Leo Lyons]

Now we know Leo Lyons' real name.

Oh shit! Now what do I do?!
I did say the photo was floating around somewhere (no pun intended); I didn't say I knew how old it was or it's origin.
Feel better now?


snopes. Really.

[O Really]

So I've seen a lot of pictures and articles about Florence, and some of them left me wondering - what were these people thinking?
Yeah, I know - sometimes you're trapped in deep water because it's the only way out. Sometimes you had reason to believe the water wouldn't rise that high...whatever. But the woman who lost her 1-year old drove around the fricking barrier! And why are so many people caught totally unprepared? Hurricanes give you lots of warning, in addition to being more prevalent in particular areas anyway.

Here's what we did - probably billy.p, too:
1. Realize that it's a very real possibility that you're going to get some severe storms and/or hurricanes from June to November. Gonna happen. Maybe severe, maybe light, but you're gonna get them.

2. Had plywood covers cut for each window/door; marked for where they go, with screwholes drilled, screws inserted, and a drill/screwdriver stored with them. Took less than an hour to get them all installed.

3. As regular maintenance, cut down weak/overhanging tree branches, palm fronds, etc.

4. Make sure all drainage routes from the gutters stay clear.

5. Fill up vehicle gas regularly, never lower than a half. Store several jerry-cans in the garage.

6. Get a generator, and all the cords necessary to run your stuff. Run it frequently enough to keep it in condition and be very comfortable using it. If I was doing it over, I'd probably get a larger built-in version, but the 5000-version we had worked fine.

7. Keep a regular stock of food/water necessities. Rotate it from time to time, but keep enough to avoid starving or significant misery for a week.

8. When the technology became available, we digitized everything we might need - documents, etc. We also digitized old photos.

9. Store valuable jewelry and some cash in an easy to grab and go container.

10. Keep a "bug-out" bag for each family member, with necessary supplies, clothing, food for a few days, along with emergency tools - flashlight, knife, etc.

11. If you're going to leave, leave ahead of the crowd.

None of this is particularly expensive or out of the ability of most anybody who lives in a hurricane area. IMNVHO, unless you just moved in last week, there really isn't any excuse for being at Home Depot buying plywood two days before the storm. There really isn't any reason why you'd have to be in a gas line the day after the storm. There are few reasons why you'd need to have food brought in by the national guard.