2018 elections

[Vrede too]

No NC Gov. or US Senate race this year.
My US House seat (11) and Asheville's (10), both severely gerrymandered, are not in play this year.
However, NC may affect the US House makeup with other district races, all are currently GOP:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... e_map.html

Toss Ups:
NC9, south-central NC, McCready (D) +4
NC13, central-western NC including Greensboro, Budd (R) +4.5

Leans GOP:
NC2, central-eastern NC including Raleigh and Durham suburbs, Coleman (D) +1 (not sure why it "Leans GOP")

Likely GOP:
NC8, central NC including Fayetteville

Alaska's independent governor drops re-election bid

... "'Alaska First' is and cannot be just a campaign slogan," he said. With less than three weeks until the election, Walker, an independent, said it became clear he could not win a three-way race against Republican former state Sen. Mike Dunleavy and Democratic former U.S. Sen. Mark Begich.

Alaskans deserve a competitive race, "and Alaskans deserve a choice other than Mike Dunleavy," he said.

Walker, a former Republican and the only independent governor in the country, told reporters he doesn't agree with Begich on a lot of things. But he said Begich would be better for Alaska than Dunleavy....

Alaska Governor - Dunleavy vs. Begich vs. Walker, 10/12 - 10/14

Dunleavy (R) 43
Walker (I) 27
Begich (D) 26

Probably way too late. Some will still vote for Walker, so Dunleavy doesn't even need 51%. It's hard to imagine that virtually everyone that switches from Walker will choose Begich.

GOP Rep. Dave Brat Gripes To Addicted Jail Inmate About His Campaign Rival's Ads

A Virginia congressman is coming under fire for a tone-deaf remark made to a woman in jail who has a drug addiction.

Rep. Dave Brat was visiting an addiction support group at the Chesterfield County Jail in his home state on Wednesday and listening to an inmate speak about the struggles she would face when she was released.

The Republican lawmaker’s response suggested he is suffering from a severe empathy deficit.

“You think you’re having a hard time ― I’ve got $5 million worth of negative ads coming at me,” he said, according to NPR reporter Ben Paviour. “How do you think I’m feeling? Nothing’s easy. For anybody.” ...

Whiny and that stupid.

RCP says the race is a Tie. I'm pretty sure that Abigail Spanberger (D) just won.

[Vrede too]

Are your members of congress fighting for civil rights? (ACLU scorecard)
Scroll own, enter address.

Richard Burr, Senator, R-NC, 5%
Thom Tillis, Senator, R-NC, 13%
Mark Meadows, House Representative, R-NC-11, 17%

Hurricane Michael reshapes Florida Senate (and Gov?) race

... The historic storm did the most damage in counties where Republican Gov. Rick Scott, who is now challenging Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, needs high turnout — by voters who may still be displaced from their homes and preoccupied with putting their lives back together.

“Rick Scott has twice won elections for governor by a single percentage point, and in 2014 the 64,000-vote margin he had over Democrat Charlie Crist, half of it was accumulated in the counties now reeling from Michael,” said John Kennedy, a veteran Florida political reporter who runs the Tallahassee bureau for GateHouse Media, which owns a group of state newspapers.

“These eight counties that were devastated by Michael, they’re home to 220,000 voters, and with the exception of really Democratic-heavy Gadsden County, these counties are overwhelmingly Republican-leaning,” Kennedy said on “Inside Florida Politics,” a GateHouse podcast....

But while the aftermath of the hurricane may hurt Scott in those counties, it has also thrust him front and center to voters around the state. Only about 10 percent of Florida was directly affected by Michael, but most Floridians have seen news footage of Scott overseeing the state’s response.

They’ve also seen him doing so in campaign ads. Scott has officially stopped holding campaign events and has backed out of a second debate, citing the need to focus on leading the state’s response. But he has not shied away from using his perch as governor in political ads....

The storm has also helped Scott by pushing other, less flattering stories out of the headlines, such as a series of articles about his having a personal financial interest in projects receiving state funding. The New York Times also reported that a so-called blind trust set up by the governor to avoid conflicts of interest between his public office and his personal financial interests was not as opaque as he had claimed.

And then there are ongoing environmental crises on both the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, involving green algae and red tide, which are polluting water and killing wildlife....

One encouraging sign for Democrats is that their usual deficit in early absentee voting is much smaller than it was in 2014, the last non-presidential-year election. In 2014 they were 11.5 points behind Republicans in mail ballots returned by this point, but they trail by only 5.5 points now, according to veteran Democratic strategist Steve Schale.

RCP:

Nelson (D) +2.4

Governor: Gillum (D) +4.4

[Vrede too]

2018 Governor Races

2018 Governor No Toss Ups

GA is still very close, +2 GOP

Georgia Governor - Kemp vs. Abrams

TV news says that GA early voting, which opened Mon. or Tues., is at record levels for a midterm. High turnout is usually good news for Dems.

The Early Voting Explosion
Some states are already reporting presidential-level turnout for this midterm election.

Polls are not very good at counting first time voters. So, which team is more energized?

[Vrede too]

Stephen King Nails Donald Trump’s Midterms Campaign Message With Just 2 Words
The horror novelist also coined his own message for voters.

...

Stephen King
‏Verified account @StephenKing

Donald Trump’s campaign message in two words: Be afraid.
My campaign message in two words: Be brave.

King, who on Sunday bashed Trump for his latest baseless attack on immigrants, also coined his own campaign message to counter Trump’s fearmongering pitch to vote Republican.

“Be brave,” he wrote.

The bestselling writer’s tweet was well received online:

Exactly...

...

[Vrede too]

The hack gap: how and why conservative nonsense dominates American politics
Republicans have a huge strategic advantage in shaping the news.

... The hack gap has two core pillars. One is the constellation of conservative media outlets — led by Fox News and other Rupert Murdoch properties like the Wall Street Journal editorial page, but also including Sinclair Broadcasting in local television, much of AM talk radio, and new media offerings such as Breitbart and the Daily Caller — that simply abjure anything resembling journalism in favor of propaganda.

The other is that the self-consciousness journalists at legacy outlets have about accusations of liberal bias leads them to bend over backward to allow the leading conservative gripes of the day to dominate the news agenda. Television producers who would never dream of assigning segments where talking heads debate whether it’s bad that the richest country on earth also has millions of children growing up in dire poverty think nothing of chasing random conservative shiny objects, from “Fast & Furious” (remember that one?) to Benghazi to the migrant caravan.

And more than Citizens United or even gerrymandering, it’s a huge constant thumb on the scale in favor of the political right in America....

Trump’s Midterms Strategy Is Fear, Lies, and (White) Nationalism
And that’s what works to turn out his base.

[Vrede too]

Andrew Gillum Is the New World Champion of Devastating Political Ethers

... On Wednesday, during the final debate between Gillum and leering Trump acolyte Ron DeSantis, the moderator listed off just a few of the many times that DeSantis, a man who insists that he is not a racist, either said racist things himself or cozied up to others who did the same. Before the moderator could actually ask a question, though, the Republican candidate lost it.

... By the time DeSantis finished spluttering, Gillum was smiling. "My grandmother used to say, 'A hit dog will holler,'" he began, prompting whoops from the audience. He continued.

Mr. DeSantis has neo-Nazis helping him out in this state. He has spoken at racist conferences. He's accepted a contribution—and would not return it—from someone who referred to the former president of the United States as a 'Muslim N-I-G-G-E-R.' When asked to return that money, he said no. He's using that money to now fund negative ads. Now, I'm not calling Mr. DeSantis a racist. I'm simply saying the racists believe he's a racist.

...

RCP: Andrew Gillum (D) +4.5

[Leo Lyons]

Damn! Who'd'a thunk it!

[Vrede too]

Audio Emerges of Minnesota Congressman Complaining About Not Being Able to Call Women 'Sluts'

GOP Rep. Jason Lewis once mocked women who felt traumatized by unwanted touching

RCP: Angie Craig (D)+12

Looks like this election will be an "unwanted touching" of Jason Lewis by a "slut".

[Vrede too]

My NC ballot
My 2 Repug Senators are not up for election;
My severely gerrymandered House seat will stay Repug;
My Leg and other local races, many uncontested, will mostly or entirely stay Repug.


The referendums from the Repug Leg all suck. Some look like they'll fail. Hard to say, the ballot wording on several is misleading, of course.
My only other theoretical impact will be on the statewide justice seats and the local school board. Sigh.

The justice races are interesting.

NC Supreme Court Associate Justice
Seat 1
(You may vote for ONE)
Barbara Jackson, Republican
Christopher (Chris) Anglin, Republican
Anita Earls, Democrat

Repugs splitting the vote, smart.

NC Court of Appeals Judge
Seat 1
(You may vote for ONE)
Andrew T. Heath, Republican
John S. Arrowood, Democrat

Normal Dem-GOP contest.

NC Court of Appeals Judge
Seat 2
(You may vote for ONE)
Jefferson G. Griffin, Republican
Tobias (Toby) Hampson, Democrat
Sandra Alice Ray, Republican

Repugs splitting the vote, smart.

NC Court of Appeals Judge
Seat 3
(You may vote for ONE)
Chuck Kitchen, Republican
Michael Monaco, Sr., Libertarian
Allegra Katherine Collins, Democrat

I think Libertarians take more votes from Repugs than Dems.

So, before even considering the individuals it looks like the the Dems are automatically advantaged in 2, probably 3 of the 4 races. Cool.

Board of Education
(You may vote for THREE)
Stacey Caskey
Dot R. Case

I don't like the other 4 candidates for various reasons and these are the only two former teachers. The sole incumbent, Amy Lynn Holt, will probably win one seat, but who knows.

[Vrede too]

There weren't any judicial primaries. Not sure if a plurality in the general gets the seat or if it forces a runoff.

The county has switched to paper ballots, yippie. I guess it's a state mandate by 2019, about the only good thing the GOP Leg has done.

TV news says that GA early voting, which opened Mon. or Tues., is at record levels for a midterm. High turnout is usually good news for Dems.

Was pretty busy at Elections, but that's probably just old folks of whichever party here.

My severely gerrymandered House seat will stay Repug;

I voted Libertarian in this one to encourage them and help keep them on the ballot. I'll be pissed at myself if the Dem makes it close.

Board of Education
(You may vote for THREE)
Stacey Caskey
Dot R. Case

I don't like the other 4 candidates for various reasons and these are the only two former teachers. The sole incumbent, Amy Lynn Holt, will probably win one seat, but who knows.

Got handed a GOP endorsement list at the polls. They like Amy Lynn Holt and the two guys I looked at for my 3rd vote. Looks like I chose wisely in my semi-ignorance. It's sometimes hard to read between the lines with things like the Board of Education. Guess I should start with the local GOP website to make the research process go faster.

[Vrede too]

Hitler devotee's primary victory informs the state of the GOP base
August 15, 2018

... The racist, Steve West, easily won the four-way Republican primary race for a Missouri house seat by 25 points, garnering nearly 50 percent of the vote. West is, besides a Republican politician, an alleged “businessman” and KCXL radio show host. He is also a raging anti-Semite and a devotee of Adolf Hitler whom West asserts had the right idea in “dealing with who was behind” what was happening in Nazi Germany....

Children Of Republican Missouri House Candidate Speak Out: ‘He Must Be Stopped’
“My dad’s a fanatic,” Steve West’s son said. “His ideology is pure hatred. It’s totally insane.”

... “My dad’s a fanatic,” Andy West, the middle of the candidate’s three children, told the Star. “He must be stopped. His ideology is pure hatred. It’s totally insane.”

“If he gets elected, it would legitimize him,” he added. “Then he would become a state official, and he’s saying that Jews shouldn’t even have civil rights.”

Emily West told the Star she hasn’t spoken to her father since August, when she asked him to drop out of the race.

“I can’t imagine him being in any level of government,” she said. “He’s made multiple comments that are racist and homophobic and how he doesn’t like the Jews.” ...

West told HuffPost that he believes Judaism and Islam are “political movements masquerading as religions” that are “antithetical to our Constitution,” echoing similar statements he has made on his KCXL radio show, “The Hard Truth with Jack Justice.”

“Looking back in history, unfortunately, Hitler was right about what was taking place in Germany. And who was behind it,” West said on his radio show in January 2017, according to the Star.

West told HuffPost that he believes homosexuality is a “learned behavior” and “an abomination to introduce to children.”

The Missouri Republican Party in August condemned the “shocking and vile comments” West had made on his radio show and said they were not a reflection of the organization’s position.

“West’s abhorrent rhetoric has absolutely no place in the Missouri Republican Party or anywhere,” the party said. “We wholeheartedly condemn his comments.”

When asked three separate times on Wednesday whether he believes Jews, Muslims and members of the LGBTQ community have a place in the United States, West refused to provide a direct answer.

“I’m not going to talk about that,” he told HuffPost. “Here’s the deal: If you listen to some of my radio shows ... at the end of the show, you’ll have an invitation to Christ. Because Christ is the answer. Christianity is the answer. That’s the way I see it.” ...

I'm not quite sure what the big deal is, he sounds like a mainstream Repug these days.

Cook Political Report is revising their outlook for Democratic Party House gains to 30-40 seats

Wasserman says this could change before Tuesday, but It feels like something big is happening in the home stretch and Trump’s big mouth is driving this late surge of voter enthusiasm for the Democratic Party.

I have said this before—Donald Trump is the best free political ad the Democratic Party could have ever asked for. I believe every time Trump opens his mouth and says another divisive and ignorant thing—it only serves to remind voters that this tyrant needs to be held in check by a Democratic House....

U.S. Rep Martha McSally's Foolish Vote Against Obamacare Is Likely Going To Lose Her A Senate Seat


Oops! Perry ‘accidentally told the truth’ about dumping nuclear waste in Nevada, roiling Senate race
Trump lies about his plan to flood Nevada with nuclear waste.

Former (FL) GOP congressman reveals that he voted for Andrew Gillum for governor—and why he did it

... "I've turned in my ballot. I voted for Andrew Gillum," said Jolly. "The reason is simple: it's because I've served with Ron DeSantis." ...

Have rightwing terrorists, Dolt .45's hate and Perry's honesty/stupidity reversed the GOP's slight Kavanaugh bump?

[Vrede too]

Whatever happens the Indiana result won't be as big a victory or defeat as it might seem.

Obama stumps for senator who supports Trump’s wall

The petition to AT&T reads:

"Stop funding white supremacy, including the campaign of racist, white supremacist Congressman Steve King."

[Whack9]

One more day.

I can't wait to vote!

I'm curious as to Trump's reaction if the Democrats take control of the house? Will be interesting to watch.

[O Really]

You didn't vote yet? You should have voted several times by now!

[Whack9]

You didn't vote yet? You should have voted several times by now!

Hah...

On that note - early voting should be a thing. Here in SC we don't have that. Also, absentee ballots require a valid excuse (out of town, etc.) Then again, I think it's probably pretty easy to just say you're gonna be out of town and get one without having to have concrete proof.

[O Really]

I didn't know there was no early voting in SC. Bet there will be some lines.

[Whack9]

I didn't know there was no early voting in SC. Bet there will be some lines.

The reward for voting against all of the Republican candidates will be well worth the wait. For me, Republican has become synonymous with Donald Trump. I think the quote in Billy.Pilgrims profile picture is a pretty apt warning as to what the GOP has become. "You are what you pretend to be". Even should Trump fall by the wayside and the GOP cast off "Trumpism", the damage has been done for me. You are what you pretend to be. When you pretend to be a spiteful, hateful, anger filled individual for show and votes and opportunism, there's no going back. I'll no longer cast my lots with you from here on out. The company we choose to associate with says a lot about us.

[O Really]

The demographics of political parties do change over time. The Republicans have let their fringes take over and those supposedly in "leadership" haven't had the skill, competence, power, balls to do anything about it. If I were a Republican, I could forgive the leadership for being unable to collar a Trump, but I could never forgive them for rolling over. I could respect a point of view of limiting immigration, for example, but never the total disregard for humanity this bunch has. I could never forgive the blatant voter suppression or the destruction of long-standing protections for the environment or the active discrimination against everyone not white, straight, and "Christian."

[Vrede too]

One more day.

I can't wait to vote!

I'm curious as to Trump's reaction if the Democrats take control of the house? Will be interesting to watch.

You didn't vote yet? You should have voted several times by now!

He's not a Dem, he just votes for them.

Last look at RCP, we'll see how it does:

2018 Governor Races:
Current Governors: 16 Democrats | 33 Republicans | 1 Independent (AK)
Democrats 18
Toss Ups 12
Republicans 20

2018 Governor No Toss Ups:
Democrats 24
Republicans 26
Net Change DEM +7
Democrats 8 Pick-Ups: FL, IL, IA, ME, MI, NM, OH, WI (Walker finally gets ousted)
Republicans 1 Pick-Ups: AK

Florida Governor - DeSantis vs. Gillum: Andrew Gillum (D) +2.7

Georgia Governor - Kemp vs. Abrams: Brian Kemp (R) +2.8

Battle for the Senate 2018:
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Sen. Angus King (I-ME) currently caucus with the Democrats.
Current Senate: 49 Democrats | 51 Republicans
Democrats 43
Toss Ups 7
Republicans 50

Senate No Toss Ups 2018:
Democrats 48
Republicans 52
Net Change GOP +1
Democrats 8 Pick-Ups: AZ
Republicans 1 Pick-Ups: MO, ND
The Democrats would have to pull off a surprise in 3 states to win control of the Senate.

Florida Senate - Scott vs. Nelson: Bill Nelson (D) +2.4

Texas Senate - Cruz vs. O'Rourke: Ted Cruz (R) +6.5

Battle for the House 2018:
Current House: Republican (235), Democratic (193), Vacant (7)
Democrats 202
Toss Ups 39 (33 currently Republican, 6 currently Democrat)
Republicans 194
If the Toss Ups split 50-50:
Democrats 221 or 222
Republicans 213 or 214
There are House races in play in FL, NC & SC

Please do add in races that are important to you or predictions from other sites like:
FiveThirtyEight
Cook Political Report

Things that will affect the results:
Who does a better job turning out their likely and sporadic voters
New voters - youth and minorities mostly, will lean Dem

[Vrede too]

Georgia Dem Stacey Abrams on racist robocall impersonating Oprah and if people feel 'votes don't count'

Stacey Abrams Slams Brian Kemp’s ‘Desperate’ Hacking Claim Against Georgia Democrats

Florida Democrat Andrew Gillum targeted by second racist robocall