2020 Elections

[neoplacebo]

I read a story the other day by some political pundit (I forget which one) but he says trump will replace Pence with Nikki Haley in the November election. The guy even gave a specific date this would be announced; sometime in July just before the Democratic convention. After reading this story, I thought, huh, isn't this like overturning the results of the 2016 election? Isn't this the same thing as what the GOP trump cult squawks about over any investigation of trump's criminality? I decided it was.

Pence is gonna be the fall guy for the coronavirus debacle. That's why Trump pawned it off on him. If everything is handled well, Trump takes credit. If it's s failure, Trump blames pence.

Yeah, well, with any luck, Pence will soon go into some sort of conversion therapy; conversion to what is still up in the air but whatever it is will be an improvement.

[Vrede too]

This captures some of my feelings:

Democrats Decide That Joe Biden, as Risky as He Ever Was, Is the Safest Bet

Supposedly safer does not mean safe at all with erratic Joe. Otoh, love him or hate him Bernie! has been remarkably steady and consistent his entire life. The prime "unsafe" thing about him relies on red-baiting.

[O Really]

This captures some of my feelings:

Democrats Decide That Joe Biden, as Risky as He Ever Was, Is the Safest Bet

Supposedly safer does not mean safe at all with erratic Joe. Otoh, love him or hate him Bernie! has been remarkably steady and consistent his entire life. The prime "unsafe" thing about him relies on red-baiting.

Within "...remarkably steady and consistent..." lies the seeds of Bernie!'s destruction. He's determined, uncompromising, and strident. And in a business where the most essential skill is to get to "yes" even among conflicting objectives, he's pretty awful. I saw someone had referred to him as a "Jesse Helms of the Left." You either have to buy him all or buy none. "Remarkably steady and consistent..." also unfortunately applies to the current squatter in the White House. And don't underestimate the power of the "red-baiting" cudgel - nothing to downplay.

Biden's got some glitches, but most of them would matter much only in the long ago days when a picture of a ride on the "Monkey Business" could derail a campaign.

[Vrede too]

Not arguing with you on the rest of your opinion, but I disagree with this:

. "Remarkably steady and consistent..." also unfortunately applies to the current squatter in the White House....

He may be a "steady and consistent" asshole idiot, but on policy and ideology he's all over the map and largely unpredictable. Hence the ongoing purge of experts and even credentialed cons in favor of ovine sycophants - "cultists".

Let's both hope that I'm not saying, "I told you so," again on Nov 4 .

[O Really]

He may be a "steady and consistent" asshole idiot...

Yep. Liar, blowhard, gaslighter, cheat... always has been, still is, always will be. Steady and consistent.
But no, I don't think Bernie! is anything like Trump. I do think rigid uncompromising ideologues have historically had a hard time winning and performing well in broad leadership positions. The generally winning pattern has been to play to the true believers in the primaries, take a broader approach in the general, and at least behave like you care what the other side thinks while in office. Trump is of course a major aberration, particularly regarding behaviour in office, but he can get by with stuff nobody else could. Bernie! has never given any indication that he will ever show up with a revised version should Bernie! ever become President Sanders.

[neoplacebo]

Maybe we need a stalwart.

[Vrede too]

Yep. Liar, blowhard, gaslighter, cheat... always has been, still is, always will be. Steady and consistent.
But no, I don't think Bernie! is anything like Trump. I do think rigid uncompromising ideologues have historically had a hard time winning and performing well in broad leadership positions. The generally winning pattern has been to play to the true believers in the primaries, take a broader approach in the general, and at least behave like you care what the other side thinks while in office. Trump is of course a major aberration, particularly regarding behaviour in office, but he can get by with stuff nobody else could. Bernie! has never given any indication that he will ever show up with a revised version should Bernie! ever become President Sanders.

I have not looked into it, but someone was saying that Bernie! has compromised throughout his career in the interest of accomplishment. If true, fine with me as long as one is clear about their principles and why they are compromising in a particular instance.

Not meaning you, but the Dem/con/Wall St freakout over Bernie! is ridiculous. Whatever he wants to do, he will obviously be restrained by Congress, public opinion and the courts. At best, we'll get mainstream liberal change.

[Vrede too]

Maybe we need a stalwart.

Who did you vote for?

[O Really]

I have not looked into it, but someone was saying that Bernie! has compromised throughout his career in the interest of accomplishment. If true, fine with me as long as one is clear about their principles and why they are compromising in a particular instance.

I'd be interested in some examples of "compromise." He's sponsored/passed 7 bills in the Senate, two of which were naming post offices. He has been a thought leader in a lot of ways, generating conversation/discussion/controversy and bringing issues of interest to him to public attention. But that's a long distance from being able to understand that "politics is the art of the possible" and actually getting things done when you're in charge.

Hypothetical: I'll wave Bernie!'s flag when he's saying he wants universal health insurance/Medicare for all, but he loses me when he wants to abolish all private insurance, and do it quickly. So the effect is, he loses one supporter he might have had if he'd been a bit more willing to negotiate.

[O Really]

Not that anyone asked, but the reason I don't want to get rid of all private insurance is that Medicare isn't all that great coverage. It provides a good basic coverage, keeps people from going bankrupt over medical expenses, but can still leave a lot out of pocket. Private supplemental plans can help that a lot.

[Vrede too]

I'd be interested in some examples of "compromise."

On votes it was, and as I told you it's not my claim.

... Hypothetical: I'll wave Bernie!'s flag when he's saying he wants universal health insurance/Medicare for all, but he loses me when he wants to abolish all private insurance, and do it quickly. So the effect is, he loses one supporter he might have had if he'd been a bit more willing to negotiate.

Obama compromised away the public option and even discussion of single payer at the start of the debate. Bad move. Bernie! will necessarily have to deal with what Congress will accept, but there's no harm in strongly IDing one's wishes early on and then proceeding from there. I'd be surprised if any bill, let alone passage, was more extreme on abolishing all private insurance than other single payer systems that mostly allow supplemental purchase.

I don't think you ever considered supporting Bernie! in 2016 or this year. You just don't like him, which is fine.

[Vrede too]

viewtopic.php?p=111865#p111865

Limited predictive value for future primaries, but IF Liz! dropped out, all her voters went to Bernie! and 3/3 were replayed: ...

Otoh, IF Bloomberg dropped out, all his voters went to Biden and 3/3 were replayed: ...

IF both dropped out and their voters moved as above:

Biden 8 states, including #2 TX & #3 NC, delegates in all states
Bernie! 6 states, including #1 CA, delegates in all states

... If both drop out, it's still a race but Biden has the theoretical edge.

This Biden edge is probably enhanced by the perception that he will be the nominee. Still, the fat lady's just taking a big breath.

Elizabeth Warren To End Bid For 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination

Thanks for trying, Liz!, and especially for knocking Bloomberg out.

[O Really]

I don't think you ever considered supporting Bernie! in 2016 or this year. You just don't like him, which is fine.[/color]

[/quote]

Not in 2016 because I'd been a Hillary fan since 1992. Not this year once I saw he hadn't changed his act any since 2016. Look, as I've said before, I agree with most of his positions. Certainly enough to be happy to have someone with those positions as President. But you can't keep biting the hands that are going to have to feed you if you want to win. He's refused to be a Democrat even while running for the Democratic nomination, and he did the begrudging minimal support in 2016 after he was out. That's not going to endear him to me. And no, I don't like to be constantly scolded.

[Vrede too]

Not in 2016 because I'd been a Hillary fan since 1992. Not this year once I saw he hadn't changed his act any since 2016. Look, as I've said before, I agree with most of his positions. Certainly enough to be happy to have someone with those positions as President. But you can't keep biting the hands that are going to have to feed you if you want to win. He's refused to be a Democrat even while running for the Democratic nomination, and he did the begrudging minimal support in 2016 after he was out. That's not going to endear him to me. And no, I don't like to be constantly scolded.

That's apparently a myth.
viewtopic.php?p=109469#p109469

Speaking of Hillary:

Rep. Rashida Tlaib Boos Hillary Clinton At Bernie Sanders Iowa Event
“Haters will shut up on Monday when we win,” said the Michigan congresswoman.

Hillary, her surrogates and her fans are having a cow over this. However:

... The moderator, Iowa activist and former school board member Dionna Langford, noted that Clinton recently claimed that “nobody likes” Sanders ...

Along with other nasty things. If you don't want to get booed by Dems, STFU!

... Clinton complained in a podcast interview Friday that Sanders didn’t do enough to unite the Democratic Party after he lost the 2016 primary — and that it affected the general election....

Fuck off. TV news:
Bernie did 34 appearances for Hillary after the convention.
Hillary did 12 appearances for Obama in 2008.

Reasonable people can debate Bernie's impact - harmful because he's too left, helpful because he's anti-establishment. However, my guess is that few people will argue that mentions of Hillary this year help the nominee in any way.

[neoplacebo]

Maybe we need a stalwart.

Who did you vote for?

I didn't vote in the primary but if I had I would have voted for Warren

[Vrede too]

I didn't vote in the primary but if I had I would have voted for Warren

She did get 10.4% of the TN vote and a delegate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Tenn ... ic_primary
Apparently, TN and other states including NC (10.5%, 2 delegates) don't have the 15% minimum to get a delegate that I thought they did.

[neoplacebo]

I didn't vote in the primary but if I had I would have voted for Warren

She did get 10.4% of the TN vote and a delegate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Tenn ... ic_primary
Apparently, TN and other states including NC don't have the 15% minimum to get a delegate that I thought they did.

I don't know either. I have never voted in the primary elections; always just defer to the party nominee after the convention.

[Whack9]

I didn't vote in the primary but if I had I would have voted for Warren

She did get 10.4% of the TN vote and a delegate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Tenn ... ic_primary
Apparently, TN and other states including NC don't have the 15% minimum to get a delegate that I thought they did.

I don't know either. I have never voted in the primary elections; always just defer to the party nominee after the convention.

Same until this time. I'm ashamed to say I used to only vote in the presidential elections. Now I vote as much as I can.

[O Really]

Reasonable people can debate Bernie's impact - harmful because he's too left, helpful because he's anti-establishment. However, my guess is that few people will argue that mentions of Hillary this year help the nominee in any way.

[/quote]

True that. Unfortunately.
I don't know that it's too left in itself. As far as I know, he never made much effort to explain/educate or improve the image of "democratic socialist." Instead, he just absorbed the comparisons to Soviets, Venezuela, yada and "failure of communism." And then he comes out with the easily misunderstood defence of Castro's regime. And people kept asking him how much Medicare for All would cost and he never gave much response. It wouldn't have been hard for somebody to calculate what the combined employer/employee premiums are now, what is the per capital cost of current Medicare, and basically say, "here's what it's costing now - if the same overall per capita cost continued, the total of universal coverage would be somewhere around $$here. But if our plan reflects the experience of every other first world country, it will be less than that - and substantially less over time." But no. So he makes it easy to discount his ideas and thus him.

[Vrede too]

... I don't know that it's too left in itself. As far as I know, he never made much effort to explain/educate or improve the image of "democratic socialist." Instead, he just absorbed the comparisons to Soviets, Venezuela, yada and "failure of communism." And then he comes out with the easily misunderstood defence of Castro's regime. And people kept asking him how much Medicare for All would cost and he never gave much response. It wouldn't have been hard for somebody to calculate what the combined employer/employee premiums are now, what is the per capital cost of current Medicare, and basically say, "here's what it's costing now - if the same overall per capita cost continued, the total of universal coverage would be somewhere around $$here. But if our plan reflects the experience of every other first world country, it will be less than that - and substantially less over time." But no. So he makes it easy to discount his ideas and thus him.

You have probably followed him more closely than I have. I wonder how much he has been saying or putting on his website that isn't reported.

Bernie! was not my first choice this year, Liz! was. I just choose him over Joe, and MIGHT have made the practical choice of Mayor Pete or Amy if they'd survived these 2 old White men.

I'm not saying it's so by any means, but it's possible that the Dems have already lost in Nov by going with Bernie! or Joe .