Is Hilary done?

Generally an unmoderated forum for discussion of pretty much any topic. The focus however, is usually politics.
User avatar
Vrede too
Superstar Cultmaster
Posts: 57342
Joined: Fri Apr 03, 2015 11:46 am
Location: Hendersonville, NC

Re: Is Hilary done?

Unread post by Vrede too »

O Really wrote:
Vrede too wrote:Whatever, because of the IG it's not just GOP accusations anymore and we're not talking about Miss Manners' "picky" pronouncements. Hillary Clinton’s email problems did just get much worse, pending whatever the FBI does. Independents and many Dems care and you can bet GOP ads will effectively quote the IG. Hillary is very lucky that her opponent is as crappy and vulnerable as Trump. I'm not sure she'd have a chance of defeating a McCain, Mitten, Rubio or Kasich.
As long as the GOP quoted the IG accurately and not just "effectively" it would be fine - As If.
And sure, some Dems and Independents "care" and maybe she wouldn't have won against McCain if he had somebody other than Palin and probably not against Mittens. And she's not the perfect candidate for a variety of reasons. None of that means the email "scandal" isn't bullshit in the overall scheme of things.
It's politics, no one worries about accuracy as long as it's effective. That said, the IG citing ads could be both.

It's only "bullshit" if there is no indictment and she wins.
F' ELON
and the
FELON

1312. ETTD

User avatar
O Really
Admiral
Posts: 23182
Joined: Tue Sep 18, 2012 3:37 pm

Re: Is Hilary done?

Unread post by O Really »

Vrede too wrote:[
It's only "bullshit" if there is no indictment and she wins.
There will be no indictment. Gar-ron-tee. Haven't you been listening to the Republicans? The investigation is a sham and Obama won't let anybody indict her. Of course, in addition to that, there hasn't been one iota of findings supporting anything criminal. But sure, constant innuendo hurts, and constant innuendo based on partial truth is worse. Kerry really did win medals, though not in traditional Audi Murphy fashion. Didn't keep the Swiftboaters from having an effect. Didn't keep the issue from being bullshit.

I think Hillary is taking the right approach in most of this stuff. Treat it like it was a non-issue, or as if the person(s) saying it are of no significance. If you actually defend, you're not going resolve the issue (ask the birthers) and in the meantime you'll make it sound like a real issue. There is no good answer to "have you stopped beating your wife?"

User avatar
Vrede too
Superstar Cultmaster
Posts: 57342
Joined: Fri Apr 03, 2015 11:46 am
Location: Hendersonville, NC

Re: Is Hilary done?

Unread post by Vrede too »

This isn't Swiftboating. No one is lying about what happened except possibly her team, though the right is painting it in the worst possible light. "and she wins" was the more important phrase, "indictment" was just stating the worst case. There's always an FBI scathing like the IG's without indictment, too. I'm worried even if you aren't.
F' ELON
and the
FELON

1312. ETTD

User avatar
O Really
Admiral
Posts: 23182
Joined: Tue Sep 18, 2012 3:37 pm

Re: Is Hilary done?

Unread post by O Really »

Vrede too wrote: I'm worried even if you aren't.
Well, I certainly worry. I've worried constantly ever since around 2010. I am totally aghast that enough people would vote to elect the bunch in office now. Particularly in the states, where the craziest of crazies run the place. Brownback, LePage, Walker, and of course the subsidiary of Art Pope Enterprises formerly known as North Carolina. And incredibily, many of those who voted in the crazies don't have any buyer's remorse about it and will vote for Trump just to be against Obama's illegitimate Kenyan aunt or whatever they choose to paint Hillary. But I don't worry a lot about the emails. I'll start worrying about them if they turn up anything other than procedural violations or any actual harm done. I'm guessing that's going to be a bit challenging. Of course, they didn't have anything solid against the ladies of Salem either, did they?

I worry about Bernie. Not that I don't like his ideas, or even him as a candidate in a different context, but he's not helping to avoid a Trump win. Whether he's right or wrong, he's helping to fuel the hater's fire and chasing off the fence sitters.

User avatar
Vrede too
Superstar Cultmaster
Posts: 57342
Joined: Fri Apr 03, 2015 11:46 am
Location: Hendersonville, NC

Re: Is Hilary done?

Unread post by Vrede too »

Whether Bernie is hurting Hillary's chances in November is speculation. It could just as easily be guessed that he's sharpening her campaign skills, keeping her name in the news and energizing people that will still care about the election and mostly vote for Hillary in Nov. that would have otherwise sat out. A better case can be made that Hillary is hurting the Dems' chances in November.

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton: Clinton +1.0

General Election: Trump vs. Sanders: Sanders +10.8

Should Hillary drop out in the interests of party, nation and planet? Of course not, she should fight for her voters and what she believes in while letting the super delegates (probably) decide who best should represent the party. The same applies to Bernie. Hillary is a candidate, not a princess preordained to be queen.
F' ELON
and the
FELON

1312. ETTD

User avatar
Vrede too
Superstar Cultmaster
Posts: 57342
Joined: Fri Apr 03, 2015 11:46 am
Location: Hendersonville, NC

Re: Is Hilary done?

Unread post by Vrede too »

Any guesses on the timing of the investigations? I'm not saying there's politics being played one way or the other, but there could be. Is it significant that after 15 months the State Dept. IG waited until Hillary's nomination was all but assured, and when will the FBI decision happen? I'm hoping that it's before the convention. If Hillary gets off easy, she'll be the nominee (and hopefully POTUS) and it won't matter when it came out. If Hillary gets trashed (or indicted), the super delegates will have very important data to base their votes on.
F' ELON
and the
FELON

1312. ETTD

User avatar
O Really
Admiral
Posts: 23182
Joined: Tue Sep 18, 2012 3:37 pm

Re: Is Hilary done?

Unread post by O Really »

I've no guess as to timing. But there's always politics involved, even if it's internal bureaucratic crap. These people involved, whether professional witch hunters or well meaning public servants trying to do their job, know what they're dealing with and what are the stakes involved. They don't want to be wrong. They don't want to screw up. Everything they say or don't say could be career making or ending for them. Probably most wish somebody else had the assignment. So having said that, I'm going to guess if they had or expected to have anything significant it would be in their interest to get it out as early as possible, and would have been done already. Why? Because the later in the race they report, the bigger the potential impact and potential mess. If, for example, they had hauled Hillary away in chains back last fall, the primary would have likely been Biden and Bernie and Hillary would be mostly as forgotten as the Republicans in the clown car that went down in flames. But come up with something disqualifying now, and hoo-boy! Partisan politics notwithstanding, probably few want to be involved in that mess. If whatever they end up with is anything other than an obvious-to-all smoking gun, they'll err on the side of letting it go.

Ya gotta admit, though, that Republicans deserve the Memorial Chutzpah Award for spending all their time bashing government bureaucracy and governmental agencies except for the IG office and FBI unit investigating Hillary and then they become the most professional, most competent, most valuable, and most reliable organization ever known on Earth. Unless they don't find anything.

User avatar
O Really
Admiral
Posts: 23182
Joined: Tue Sep 18, 2012 3:37 pm

Re: Is Hilary done?

Unread post by O Really »

Rational perspective on the email "scandal" here...
http://www.pressherald.com/2016/05/29/c ... ns-emails/

Note in particular the official government procedure for retaining and ummmm, "protecting" emails. :lol:

User avatar
Vrede too
Superstar Cultmaster
Posts: 57342
Joined: Fri Apr 03, 2015 11:46 am
Location: Hendersonville, NC

Re: Is Hilary done?

Unread post by Vrede too »

Vrede too wrote:Whether Bernie is hurting Hillary's chances in November is speculation. It could just as easily be guessed that he's sharpening her campaign skills, keeping her name in the news and energizing people that will still care about the election and mostly vote for Hillary in Nov. that would have otherwise sat out....
What Happens If Hillary Clinton Loses California to Bernie Sanders

... Positive Inroads for the Party

There have been calls from top Democrats, including Sen. Diane Feinstein this weekend, to have Sanders drop out, arguing that he's doing more harm than good for the Democratic Party, but one of his camp's biggest arguments in favor of his staying in the race is that he is helping grow the party by energizing and engaging new voters.

Voter registration estimates appear to back up that claim.

"We’ve had a historic surge in new voter registration since Jan. 1. Estimates are around 2 million new voters were added to the rolls," Vasquez (a senior policy analyst at the National University System Institute for Policy Research) said of California. "That includes both brand-new voters and those that are reregistering. A large chunk of those voters are millennials, Democratic-leaning and overall fit the demographic profile of Bernie Sanders supporters." ...
F' ELON
and the
FELON

1312. ETTD

User avatar
GoCubsGo
Admiral
Posts: 21713
Joined: Sun Sep 23, 2012 2:22 am

Re: Is Hilary done?

Unread post by GoCubsGo »

O Really wrote:Rational perspective on the email "scandal" here...
http://www.pressherald.com/2016/05/29/c ... ns-emails/

Note in particular the official government procedure for retaining and ummmm, "protecting" emails. :lol:

Good read.
Eamus Catuli~AC 000000 000101 010202 020303 010304 020405....Ahhhh, forget it, it's gonna be a while.


Foxtrot
Delta
Tango

User avatar
Vrede too
Superstar Cultmaster
Posts: 57342
Joined: Fri Apr 03, 2015 11:46 am
Location: Hendersonville, NC

Re: Is Hilary done?

Unread post by Vrede too »

Vrede too wrote:This isn't Swiftboating. No one is lying about what happened except possibly her team, though the right is painting it in the worst possible light. "and she wins" was the more important phrase, "indictment" was just stating the worst case. There's always an FBI scathing like the IG's without indictment, too. I'm worried even if you aren't.
As O Really predicted:

FBI says it won't recommend charges in Clinton email matter

However, as I predicted:
... But Comey made that statement after he delivered a blistering review of Clinton's actions, saying the FBI found that 110 emails were sent or received on Clinton's server containing classified information. He said Clinton and her aides were "extremely careless" and added that it was possible that people hostile to the U.S. had gained access to her personal email account....
It'll be debated into November and probably afterwards if Hillary is elected. We'll see what the effect is.
F' ELON
and the
FELON

1312. ETTD

User avatar
O Really
Admiral
Posts: 23182
Joined: Tue Sep 18, 2012 3:37 pm

Re: Is Hilary done?

Unread post by O Really »

For Hillary-haters, it will never end. For most everyone else, <yawn>

However, it would be helpful to know the general content of the "110 classified" emails. Hillary says she didn't send or receive any that were marked confidential at the time. Maybe, maybe not. But without knowing something about the content, those found in the witch-hunt investigation to be classified might have been anything from the nuclear codes to her travel schedule. That would make a difference as to whether being "careless" is awful or not.

User avatar
Vrede too
Superstar Cultmaster
Posts: 57342
Joined: Fri Apr 03, 2015 11:46 am
Location: Hendersonville, NC

Re: Is Hilary done?

Unread post by Vrede too »

O Really wrote:.... For most everyone else, <yawn> ...
... is wishful thinking. There's absolutely nothing surprising or wrong with non-"Hillary-haters" taking into account the IG and FBI scathings given that what she did was directly related to her high level government position as she campaigns for a different one. Honest Trump ads, not that honesty is important to him, merely have to quote the reports.

"witch-hunt investigation" by Dem agencies?

Sure, there's over classification, but you've been arguing for 3 years that violating "classified" automatically condemns Snowden. That she was sloppy and/or self-serving rather than his motivation in the interests of Americans' privacy and rights doesn't make her better.
F' ELON
and the
FELON

1312. ETTD

User avatar
O Really
Admiral
Posts: 23182
Joined: Tue Sep 18, 2012 3:37 pm

Re: Is Hilary done?

Unread post by O Really »

So when did you get so much confidence in the FBI? :lol:

But as regards to Snowden, it wasn't the simple violation of confidentiality requirements that I have trashed him over. He intentionally and willfully stole classified information and disclosed it with full knowledge and expectation that it would be publicized. That's hardly the same as being "careless."

Seth Milner
Lieutenant Commander
Posts: 2334
Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2015 7:52 pm
Location: Somewhere on Lake Keowee, SC

Re: Is Hilary done?

Unread post by Seth Milner »

Vrede too wrote: It'll be debated into November and probably afterwards if Hillary is elected. We'll see what the effect is.
I can pretty well guess what's going to come about next., and it won't be really debating. Trump, being miffed that his powder is now all wet, will nit-pick and whine about the parts of the investigation that, although careless, was not cause for prosecution. His blasting away at Hillary will probably focus on "Do you want a President that's careless in her decisions, blah, blah, yada, yada."

I'm not rooting for Hillary; but I sure don't want to see that asshole with all the political background of a telephone pole be put in charge of our country.
Don't take life too seriously; No one gets out alive

User avatar
Vrede too
Superstar Cultmaster
Posts: 57342
Joined: Fri Apr 03, 2015 11:46 am
Location: Hendersonville, NC

Re: Is Hilary done?

Unread post by Vrede too »

O Really wrote:So when did you get so much confidence in the FBI? :lol: ...
... and the State Department’s inspector general. What's to doubt about their position when they're under Dem control and the FBI chose not to indict?

Snowden "intentionally and willfully stole classified information and disclosed it with full knowledge and expectation that it would" inform Americans about the loss of their privacy and rights while harming himself.

Hillary intentionally and willfully "failed to comply with department policies meant to ensure that federal record laws are followed" (IG) and was "careless" (FBI) with classified information exclusively for her own benefit. I give the moral high ground to Snowden. Plus, he's not running for POTUS and didn't know that he would be for the 4 years as SoS like Hillary did. It was at least boneheaded on her part, something that matters to voters, if not also a sleazy attempt to cover up things that the public has a right to know.
F' ELON
and the
FELON

1312. ETTD

User avatar
O Really
Admiral
Posts: 23182
Joined: Tue Sep 18, 2012 3:37 pm

Re: Is Hilary done?

Unread post by O Really »

Vrede too wrote:
O Really wrote:.... For most everyone else, <yawn> ...
... is wishful thinking.
Or not.
I don't know why, but the demographics of the main MSN site (msn.com)- or at least those who participate in the surveys - tend to run toward older males with a rightward tilt, some of whom undoubtedly are Trumpers. Here's today's question:

How will the FBI’s statement on Hillary Clinton’s email issue affect her campaign?
26%It will help
22%It will hurt
52%It won’t make any difference

That's 78% of a right-leaning group thinking it won't do any damage. Follow your man Bernie's advice: "don't care about the damn emails..."

User avatar
O Really
Admiral
Posts: 23182
Joined: Tue Sep 18, 2012 3:37 pm

Re: Is Hilary done?

Unread post by O Really »

Seth Milner wrote:
I'm not rooting for Hillary; but I sure don't want to see that asshole with all the political background of a telephone pole be put in charge of our country.
So Seth, given your thoughts on the Trumpster and if you're "not rooting for Hillary," what alternate result from the general election would you expect/root for? Other than, "Here I come to save the day, that means that Mighty (blank) is on the way..."

User avatar
rstrong
Captain
Posts: 5889
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:32 am
Location: Winnipeg, MB

Re: Is Hilary done?

Unread post by rstrong »

O Really wrote:But as regards to Snowden, it wasn't the simple violation of confidentiality requirements that I have trashed him over. He intentionally and willfully stole classified information and disclosed it with full knowledge and expectation that it would be publicized. That's hardly the same as being "careless."
Well, sure. But add "for the public good" - and that's certainly the case with Snowden - and you get the very definition of "whistleblower." And whistleblowers - especially in government - are necessary.

Consider Thomas Tamm, the whistleblower regarding the NSA's 2001–07 warrantless surveillance. And Mark Klein, who revealed the NSA's mass surveillance of Americans via room 641A at AT&T and elsewhere.

What the NSA was doing - along with the telecommunications companies ordered to assist it - was illegal. Far from prosecuting their actions, the government made them retroactively legal. The telecommunications companies were given retroactive immunity. So were those two whistleblowers wrong in their actions?

Naturally, when Snowden revealed in 2013 that the surveillance was far, far worse than even than what they had reported, there was not even a hint of prosecution. Not even a hint of rolling back the mass surveillance that would have shocked Americans a few year earlier. Heck, James Clapper was even able to outright lie to Congress about it, quickly get caught in that lie, and walk away without a hint of punishment.

As John Oliver said of the 2013 revelations, "Mr. President, no one is saying you broke any laws, we're just saying it's a little bit weird you didn't have to." In the 1980s the NSA and CIA were essentially forbidden to spy within the US. Now they have free reign, with no real legal limits.

Consider the following quote:

"If you give me six lines written by the hand of the most honest of men, I will find something in them which will hang him."
- Cardinal Richelieu

Congressman Jason Chaffetz began asking the Secret Service about its string of high-profile failures. Eighteen minutes after the hearings started, Secret Service agents -- dozens of them -- began poring through his 2003 Secret Service application in hopes of finding a few skeletons in his previously-vetted closet. Fortunately they were reprimanded. But obviously - with so many doing it - it was common practice. The problem was that the congressman wasn't "one of the little people."

Imagine what the NSA can do with all their collected data.

Imagine what local police can do. The Stinger cell phone mass surveillance devices were intended for intelligence and anti-terrorism work. Now they're a hot item for local police forces. And remember "Civil Asset Forfeiture?" Where police can seize any money you're carrying on vague (highly lucrative) "suspicions", no evidence or trial involved? Now police are being equipped with "ERAD" machines - essentially God-mode ATM machines - where they can check and clean out your bank account on the side of the road, no warrant needed.

Now add Prescription Drug Monitor Program databases:
Marlon Jones was arrested for taking legal painkillers, prescribed to him by a doctor, after a double knee replacement.

“There were three police officers pounding on the door. They said they had a warrant for my arrest and they were going to take me in,” he said. “It was the middle of the day, on my front doorstep, in front of my wife and daughter. I’m handcuffed and stuffed into a police car and they haul me to jail.” Jones was hit with 14 felony counts but all of them were later dropped.
[...]
“It has become the status quo that when a person comes under their radar they run to the prescription drug database and see what they are taking,” said Sen. Todd Weiler, a Republican—who said that police in Utah searched the PDMP database as many as 11,000 times in one year alone.
[...]
Among the instances of misconduct Weiler cited is the case of an opioid addicted police officer who was caught on video stealing pills from an elderly couple’s home after tracking their prescriptions in the state’s PDMP database.
One case even made News of the Weird:
Until a July Florida appeals court ruling, Mark O'Hara, 45, had been in prison for two years of a 25-year mandatory-minimum for trafficking in hydrocodone, based solely on the 58 tablets found in his possession in 2004, even though his supply had been lawfully prescribed by a physician. The state attorney in Tampa had pointed out that Florida law did not mention a "prescription" defense to trafficking, and even though O'Hara had lined up a doctor and a pharmacist to testify, the jury wasn't allowed to consider the issue. After the appeals court called the case "absurd" and ordered a new trial with the prescription evidence allowed, the state attorney still refused to drop the case. [St. Petersburg Times, 8-9-07]
There are plenty of other examples. Cardinal Richelieu's point is valid, even without evil intent. Even without electronic surveillance there are endless cases of people put through hell because of confirmation bias: Officers seizing on details that support their suspicion while ignoring those that oppose it. WITH electronic surveillance, instead of six lines they're getting six million. They'll always be able to find something with which to hang the most honest of people.

User avatar
Vrede too
Superstar Cultmaster
Posts: 57342
Joined: Fri Apr 03, 2015 11:46 am
Location: Hendersonville, NC

Re: Is Hilary done?

Unread post by Vrede too »

To be fair to SC Seth Milner, he doesn't have to pick a side this time. Unless he moves to FL soon, his electoral votes will undoubtedly go to Trump. If not, it'll be a historic landslide for Hillary.

That was one Bernie debate quote, he subsequently hedged.

Hard to draw conclusions from that poll.
I'll bet that most people have only heard that there wasn't an indictment and not yet the details of the FBI scathing she got.
What are the demographics of MSN readers?
Are the "26%It will help" already Hillary lovers that are just relieved there won't be an indictment?
Are the "22%It will hurt" already Hillary haters, or are some of them undecided?
Have the "52%It won’t make any difference" already made up their minds and are thus irrelevant when election margins are usually in the 5% range?
Plus, they're making predictions about other Americans, a shaky proposition and one that people take differently when responding. For example, I might predict that it "will hurt" a bit with other Americans while knowing for certain that "It won’t make any difference" to my vote for her if NC is at all looking close.
The IG and FBI quoting ads haven't started yet, and Hillary isn't going to have good answers to them. "I wasn't indicted" probably won't cut it.

Will "Crooked Hillary" become "Careless Hillary"? Will the ads start before the Dem Convention in hopes of sparking some chaos there?
Last edited by Vrede too on Tue Jul 05, 2016 4:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.
F' ELON
and the
FELON

1312. ETTD

Post Reply